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Gliding risk....



 
 
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  #91  
Old November 19th 19, 06:13 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Jonathan St. Cloud
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Default Gliding risk....

On Tuesday, November 19, 2019 at 8:33:59 AM UTC-8, Dan Marotta wrote:
On 11/19/2019 9:24 AM, Jonathan St. Cloud wrote:
On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 5:49:22 PM UTC-7, wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....

https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/

Something that no one addressed is how safe aviation can be. Commercial flight operations, operate under constraints of economics and time schedules, yet the carriers have an outstanding safety record. I never feel safer than when I am flying a helicopter, they don't glide well and every part has to work. Responsibility for safety in soaring and general aviation, largely lays with the pilot and even the choices made before driving to the airport. Every once in a while the breath of a zephyr will take it's fare, but that was always destined to be. After watching many shows of "Air Disaster", "Why Planes Crash"... where the ATP pilots made basic pilotage errors, I will continue to both feel and be safe, flying a glider by merely being a current engaged pilot.



...And continuing to exercise good airmanship.Â* It seems to me that
most, if not all, of the fatal accidents are the result of poor
airmanship.Â* There is usually a series of poor decisions leading up to
the accident and, when the accident is survived, the pilot usually makes
excuses for what happened rather than accepting the blame for his
decisions.Â* I salute the gent who admitted to bad decisions leading to
his crash in the Nevada desert after passing many safe options.Â* There's
only so many times you can poke the bear before you get bit.Â* (Bad
grammar intended).
--
Dan, 5J


In this case the bear was poked only once. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-WWdE1_RW0
Some airman can poke the bear more than once, but...
  #92  
Old November 19th 19, 06:58 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
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Posts: 478
Default Gliding risk....

On Tuesday, November 19, 2019 at 11:24:11 AM UTC-5, Jonathan St. Cloud wrote:
On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 5:49:22 PM UTC-7, wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....

https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/


Something that no one addressed is how safe aviation can be. Commercial flight operations, operate under constraints of economics and time schedules, yet the carriers have an outstanding safety record.


Strict procedures and limited pilot autonomy. Airline pilots flying general aviation aircraft crash at about the same rate as non-pro pilots.
  #93  
Old November 19th 19, 10:46 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
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Posts: 380
Default Gliding risk....

I have to retrain most airline pilots when they jump to gliders. They loose most all their stick n rudder skills. Airline guys are “pro’s” but only at airline work. I have found the flying they do has very little application to soaring.
  #94  
Old November 22nd 19, 04:44 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Clemens Ceipek
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Default Gliding risk....

On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 6:49:22 PM UTC-6, wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....

https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/


In the three weeks since I completed the analysis that started this conversation, I have reviewed and interpreted over 250 glider accidents to try to find out why accidents really happen, how many of them are avoidable, and what each of us can to to prevent them. I've certainly learned some important lessons for my own flying in the process. I hope some of you will find it useful as well. Please read it with an open mind. Here's the link:

https://chessintheair.com/does-soari...-so-dangerous/

  #95  
Old November 22nd 19, 06:23 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Tom BravoMike
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Default Gliding risk....

On Thursday, November 21, 2019 at 9:44:45 PM UTC-6, Clemens Ceipek wrote:
On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 6:49:22 PM UTC-6, wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....

https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/


In the three weeks since I completed the analysis that started this conversation, I have reviewed and interpreted over 250 glider accidents to try to find out why accidents really happen, how many of them are avoidable, and what each of us can to to prevent them. I've certainly learned some important lessons for my own flying in the process. I hope some of you will find it useful as well. Please read it with an open mind. Here's the link:

https://chessintheair.com/does-soari...-so-dangerous/


Wow, what a read! Is this some kind of a degree thesis? No kidding, I'm going to make a booklet of it for myself as a 'must read' before every new season. Thanks! One thing I would add (it is there between the lines, I believe, but could be stated more explicitly - and I was taught it in the soaring ground school): most accidents are a result not of a single event/decision/circumstance/situation but rather of a chain of them; that chain has to be broken as soon as possible, or the options will be fewer and fewer, down to none.
  #96  
Old November 22nd 19, 08:16 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
2G
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Default Gliding risk....

On Thursday, November 21, 2019 at 7:44:45 PM UTC-8, Clemens Ceipek wrote:
On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 6:49:22 PM UTC-6, wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....

https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/


In the three weeks since I completed the analysis that started this conversation, I have reviewed and interpreted over 250 glider accidents to try to find out why accidents really happen, how many of them are avoidable, and what each of us can to to prevent them. I've certainly learned some important lessons for my own flying in the process. I hope some of you will find it useful as well. Please read it with an open mind. Here's the link:

https://chessintheair.com/does-soari...-so-dangerous/


Kudos for doing the best glider accident analysis that I have ever seen - and that includes the efforts by the Soaring Safety Foundation. Looking critically at the causes of accidents is vital to improving our safety record. I, personally, have been vilified here when I bring up safety issues. This reveals a mentality that is antagonistic, or at least ambivalent, towards safety issues.

Tom
  #97  
Old November 22nd 19, 04:05 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Dave Nadler
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Posts: 1,610
Default Gliding risk....

On Thursday, November 21, 2019 at 10:44:45 PM UTC-5, Clemens Ceipek wrote:
On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 6:49:22 PM UTC-6, wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....
https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/

https://chessintheair.com/does-soari...-so-dangerous/


Thanks Clemens, a great piece of work.
Probably you've seen this already, but another important factor
is herd mentality, following another pilot, and not just in contests.
Some examples:
http://www.nadler.com/public/Nadler_...g_May_1987.pdf

Thanks again,
Best Regards, Dave
  #98  
Old November 22nd 19, 05:20 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
BobW
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Posts: 504
Default Gliding risk....

On 11/21/2019 8:44 PM, Clemens Ceipek wrote:
On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 6:49:22 PM UTC-6,
wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....

https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/


In the three weeks since I completed the analysis that started this
conversation, I have reviewed and interpreted over 250 glider accidents to
try to find out why accidents really happen, how many of them are
avoidable, and what each of us can to to prevent them. I've certainly
learned some important lessons for my own flying in the process. I hope
some of you will find it useful as well. Please read it with an open mind.
Here's the link:

https://chessintheair.com/does-soari...-so-dangerous/


Seriously Excellent Stuff, Clemens! Thanks for taking time to research,
analyze and share it.

My short-form assessment? How a person thinks *does* matter!

Bob W.
  #99  
Old November 22nd 19, 06:06 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Matt Herron Jr.
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Posts: 548
Default Gliding risk....

On Thursday, November 21, 2019 at 7:44:45 PM UTC-8, Clemens th wrote:
On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 6:49:22 PM UTC-6, wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....

https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/


In the three weeks since I completed the analysis that started this conversation, I have reviewed and interpreted over 250 glider accidents to try to find out why accidents really happen, how many of them are avoidable, and what each of us can to to prevent them. I've certainly learned some important lessons for my own flying in the process. I hope some of you will find it useful as well. Please read it with an open mind. Here's the link:

https://chessintheair.com/does-soari...-so-dangerous/


Clemens,

This is such a thoughtful, thorough, and practical analysis of glider accidents. Thank you so much for taking the time to think it through, do the research, and write it up. Is there any way you could present this at the upcoming SSA convention? I would donate something towards your air fare, if that is an issue.

I would also love to have a little "reminder card" that I could consult on a regular basis, maybe tucked in the glider pocket. We tend to forget even important information like this fairly quickly.

Thanks again,

Matt
  #100  
Old November 22nd 19, 06:45 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Clemens Ceipek
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Posts: 12
Default Gliding risk....

Dave - thank you for sharing that article. I had not seen it before. It is super insightful and remains very relevant! It is very possible that some of the pilots who crashed due to "fateful decisions /eroded margins" had been following someone else before they crashed and this just wasn't mentioned in the accident report. (I have done that a few times in multi-player races on Condor and learned that way that it's never a good idea to assume that the pilot ahead knows what they are doing. In real life I have so far resisted the temptation considering differences in experience/skill level, equipment, and risk attitude. I want to keep it that way - especially as I will be flying in my first real-life contests next year.)

Tom BravoMike - yes, I could have been more explicit in mentioning that accidents are often a the result of a chain of decisions or events. Classifying them one way or another obviously required me to pick one moment in that chain. I tried to identify the one point from where the accident became probably no longer avoidable. (e.g. consider the many cases where pilots delayed a decision to land. Many of them are officially reported as stall/spins or failure to maintain a sufficient airspeed/or ground clearance. I reported them as "delayed decision to land" because that's what set off the chain of events that ultimately resulted in the accident.) If you read Dave's article, it provides several great examples for exactly those types of situations and in most cases I found it not very difficult to identify the point after which the accident could have only been prevented by sheer luck.

Clemens
 




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