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Brian Sandle wrote in message ...
Eric Hocking wrote: [...] I have, in spite of your diversion attempts, tried (and I believe succeeded) in showing that the crop circle proponent's arguments that FMD (pedestrian) restrictions had no impact on circle building in 2001 in the UK is unsupportable. What can be concluded from that is up to those that have been lurking. I thought river flows might give some indication of weather. Only of rainfall in the catchment area, surely? While *you* might think river flow gives some indication of weather, you have not shown it to be so. The rest of your calculations, while interesting, do not show anything of the sort. Why not just check the monthly weather figures from the Government Meteorological Bureau? http://www.met-office.gov.uk/climate/uk/ Monthly numbers are available to 1998, but your best bet is from 1999 as the data is tabulated. http://www.nwl.ac.uk/ih/nrfa/monthly...2/07/rv00.html gives the flows of a number of UK rivers but unfortunately only from 1999 to 2002. I have tried to estimate the flows from the logarithmic scales on the diagram for the Itchen river which flows in Hampshire and might give some indication for the weather situation in Wiltshire/Hampshire area. If as you say you work with govt info maybe you know of a better source. You really do read a lot into other people's posts don't you? I didn't say I "work with govt info" - other than the references I've provided in this thread. And the crop circles I have taken from http://www.cropcircleresearch.com/ar...tribution.html Whoa, whoa, whoa. You've jumped from *thinking* that river flow *may* correlate to weather (uh, what about sunshine and temperature, especially wrt crops?) straight to *proving* a correlation between river flow to crop circle emergence and FMD? Try showing the logic of this before attempting to force the numbers. Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 Mar+Ap+May flow 18 24 35 22 Apr+May circs 24 14 9 4 Mar+Ap flow 13 15 25 15 Apr circs 9 3 0 1 FMD Yes(1)/No(0)0 0 1 0 " This amount of data is not really sufficient, but it is interesting what turns up is a -0.49 correlation between Itchen river Mar Apr May flows and Apr+May crop circles {call it r(flows-circles)}. I am risking using the Pearson correlation. And the Mar+Apr flows and the Apr circles correlation is -0.67. You're risking more than choosing the correct correlation technique. You've yet to show that the Itchen River flow has any relationship to weather conditions. As for river flow, have you factored in seasonal abstraction from river systems? Also there turns up a correlation of river flow to FMD Jan Feb Mar Apr May 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.68 May being when it was finished there? This "correlation" implies what? River flow affects government decisions on lifting FMD restrictions? But anyway taking the Mar Apr May flows figures, since weather might stop hoaxers, You are yet to show that the Itchen River flow readings actually has any reflection on the weather pattern trends. r(flows-fmd) = 0.94. And is there a correlation between FMD & circles? Yes, r(fmd-circles) = -0.29, a small negative correlation, rather less than from above r(flows-circles) = -0.49. Then what happens when partial correlation is used to get a feel for removing affects of the factors? When the effects of the rivers are nullified then FMD becomes *positively* related to circles. r(fmd-circles.flows) = 0.57 instead of -0.29 and for completeness r(flows-fmd.circles) = 0.96 instead of 0.94, no change, rather indicating circles not causative, r(flows-circles.fmd) = -0.66 instead of -0.49, not much change indicating FMD not really causative. With that small amount of data, so far, some of that could be by chance. And also shows that you can "prove" anything with forced numbers and illogical connections. You need first to show that there is a logical connection between a single river's flow trend as an indicator of weather conditions (rainfall, temperature, sunshine). How about using *weather* data directly for the county, instead of attempting to derive this data from a single river monitoring station? -- Eric Hocking |
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Eric Hocking wrote:
Brian Sandle wrote in message ... Eric Hocking wrote: [...] I have, in spite of your diversion attempts, tried (and I believe succeeded) in showing that the crop circle proponent's arguments that FMD (pedestrian) restrictions had no impact on circle building in 2001 in the UK is unsupportable. What can be concluded from that is up to those that have been lurking. I thought river flows might give some indication of weather. Only of rainfall in the catchment area, surely? While *you* might think river flow gives some indication of weather, you have not shown it to be so. They may be a better indication than weather of what the ground is like. They do not increase flow until the ground is saturated. (Though, not appropriate to UK in my knowledge, fast run off can occur off baked land.) The rest of your calculations, while interesting, do not show anything of the sort. Why not just check the monthly weather figures from the Government Meteorological Bureau? http://www.met-office.gov.uk/climate/uk/ Monthly numbers are available to 1998, but your best bet is from 1999 as the data is tabulated. It would be complex factoring in evapotranspiration. Since there are only 4 years it is not really worth it. http://www.nwl.ac.uk/ih/nrfa/monthly...2/07/rv00.html gives the flows of a number of UK rivers but unfortunately only from 1999 to 2002. I have tried to estimate the flows from the logarithmic scales on the diagram for the Itchen river which flows in Hampshire and might give some indication for the weather situation in Wiltshire/Hampshire area. If as you say you work with govt info maybe you know of a better source. You really do read a lot into other people's posts don't you? I didn't say I "work with govt info" - other than the references I've provided in this thread. And the crop circles I have taken from http://www.cropcircleresearch.com/ar...tribution.html Whoa, whoa, whoa. You've jumped from *thinking* that river flow *may* correlate to weather (uh, what about sunshine and temperature, especially wrt crops?) Extra flows indicate the ground cannot hold the water, therefore there has been less sunshine and temperature. straight to *proving* a correlation between river flow to crop circle emergence and FMD? Try showing the logic of this before attempting to force the numbers. How am I `forcing' the numbers? Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 Mar+Ap+May flow 18 24 35 22 Apr+May circs 24 14 9 4 Mar+Ap flow 13 15 25 15 Apr circs 9 3 0 1 FMD Yes(1)/No(0)0 0 1 0 " This amount of data is not really sufficient, but it is interesting what turns up is a -0.49 correlation between Itchen river Mar Apr May flows and Apr+May crop circles {call it r(flows-circles)}. I am risking using the Pearson correlation. And the Mar+Apr flows and the Apr circles correlation is -0.67. You're risking more than choosing the correct correlation technique. You've yet to show that the Itchen River flow has any relationship to weather conditions. As for river flow, have you factored in seasonal abstraction from river systems? It is only very rough. Besides seasonal effects should be similar from year to year and factor out. Also there turns up a correlation of river flow to FMD Jan Feb Mar Apr May 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.68 May being when it was finished there? This "correlation" implies what? That for some reason Itchen river flow was high at the same time FMD was present. River flow affects government decisions on lifting FMD restrictions? Presumably the restricitions were lifted when it was thought there was less risk. I doubt there would have been any talk of rivers transporting FMD. When the land dried a bit stock could get out into the fields and have a bit less close contact and so less chance for transmission of FMD. But anyway taking the Mar Apr May flows figures, since weather might stop hoaxers, You are yet to show that the Itchen River flow readings actually has any reflection on the weather pattern trends. Next you will be asking me to prove that day is going to be lighter than night. r(flows-fmd) = 0.94. And is there a correlation between FMD & circles? Yes, r(fmd-circles) = -0.29, a small negative correlation, rather less than from above r(flows-circles) = -0.49. Then what happens when partial correlation is used to get a feel for removing affects of the factors? When the effects of the rivers are nullified then FMD becomes *positively* related to circles. r(fmd-circles.flows) = 0.57 instead of -0.29 which indicates flows are connected to cause. and for completeness r(flows-fmd.circles) = 0.96 instead of 0.94, no change, rather indicating circles not causative, r(flows-circles.fmd) = -0.66 instead of -0.49, not much change indicating FMD not really causative. With that small amount of data, so far, some of that could be by chance. And also shows that you can "prove" anything with forced numbers and illogical connections. Here is the formula for you to have some fun: r(po.y)= [r(po)-r(py).r(oy)]/sqr.root[1-{r(py)}^2].sqr.root[1-{r(oy)}^2] (Bruning & Kintz). where r(po.y) is the partial correlation between p and o, partialling out y. r(po) is the non-partial correlation between p and o, &c for p & y, o & y. When the partial correlation tends to zero that means the partialled out variable is causal and the non-partial correlation is spurious. When the partial correlation is no different from the non-partial, that means the partailled out variable is not causal. You need first to show that there is a logical connection between a single river's flow trend as an indicator of weather conditions (rainfall, temperature, sunshine). How about using *weather* data directly for the county, instead of attempting to derive this data from a single river monitoring station? The first crop circle for 2001 was in Hampshire at latitude 50 deg 58.6 min north, longitude 1 deg 5.9 mins west. That is only 10 or 20 miles from the Itchen river (which has its mouth near Southampton). It is not a big reiver and seems to have its source on the same side of South Downs. |
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Brian Sandle wrote in message ...
Eric Hocking wrote: Brian Sandle wrote in message ... Eric Hocking wrote: [...] I have, in spite of your diversion attempts, tried (and I believe succeeded) in showing that the crop circle proponent's arguments that FMD (pedestrian) restrictions had no impact on circle building in 2001 in the UK is unsupportable. What can be concluded from that is up to those that have been lurking. I thought river flows might give some indication of weather. Only of rainfall in the catchment area, surely? While *you* might think river flow gives some indication of weather, you have not shown it to be so. They may be a better indication than weather of what the ground is like. You're saying that a single river's flow pattern taken from one station on the river is a better indicator of a region's weather that the weather data gathered by the Bureau of Meteorological's database from over 30 stations throughout the region? http://www.met-office.gov.uk/climate/uk/networks/climnet2.html That's not logical. Why is it that you chose to ignore the rainfall data at the site you gleaned the river flow data from, as well as the hydrological summary put together by experts AND the groundwater discussion. Why is that Brian? If I were a cynical person I might mention the phrase "data mining". Why don't you put your (incorrect) assumption on the data into the full context of the information provided. They do not increase flow until the ground is saturated. (Though, not appropriate to UK in my knowledge, fast run off can occur off baked land.) Your knowledge of UK weather and water reserves is limited then - and you would have realised this if you had actually read the monthly summaries relating to rainfall, river flow and groundwater on the site you decided to ONLY use river flow data from. FYI. Earlier this year we experienced torrential rain after a longer and drier than usual summer in 2003. Water companies reported that the rivers/reservoirs and especially groundwater reserves were not being replenished because of the rain running of the dry earth. Again, your assumptions do not reflect the facts. The rest of your calculations, while interesting, do not show anything of the sort. Why not just check the monthly weather figures from the Government Meteorological Bureau? http://www.met-office.gov.uk/climate/uk/ Monthly numbers are available to 1998, but your best bet is from 1999 as the data is tabulated. It would be complex factoring in evapotranspiration. Sod complex factoring - all you want to know is weather conditions in the region. This is supplied in better detail and accuracy by weather station data than unsound derivations from river flow data that you do not completely understand. Since there are only 4 years it is not really worth it. You obviously didn't look or try too hard. The data sets go back to 1855, and the three prime weather indicators (as far as crops may be concerned, rainfall, hours of sunshine and min/max temperatures) are available back to 1895. ie http://www.met-office.gov.uk/climate/uk/stationdata/southamptondata.txt snip Whoa, whoa, whoa. You've jumped from *thinking* that river flow *may* correlate to weather (uh, what about sunshine and temperature, especially wrt crops?) Extra flows indicate the ground cannot hold the water, Incorrect and not just for physical reasons stated above. There are economical, political and social conditions that can affect river flow. Not the least of which is the changes in water abstraction licensing in the UK, let alone changes in irrigation practices in the UK agricultural industry. Your entire set of calculations are based on incorrect assumptions and therefore of little use. been less sunshine and temperature. As shown above, if you do not fully understand the data gathering process, let alone the data itself, adding in external factors such as pressures on water resources in a region, why attempt to derive weather conditions, probably incorrectly, when you have a WEATHER resource available to you? Here's a timeline of weather conditions and crops in Hampshire. / I'll do the sums for you: Month Sun Mean Cum. Jan Hours Temp Rainfall -Aug (C) (mm) 1999 1102 10.7 771 2000 1127 10.4 732 2001 1193 10.1 719 2002 1054 10.6 854 Well whaddayano? 2001 had the MOST sunshine, the LOWEST mean temperature and LEAST rainfall for those years. I'll fully admit that this is for the entire SW, but it does not gel with your conclusions very well at all. Oh, before you ask, numbers for Mar, Apr ,May a 1999 406 9.5 259 2000 451 8.8 306 2001 454 8.5 288 2002 466 9.1 300 straight to *proving* a correlation between river flow to crop circle emergence and FMD? Try showing the logic of this before attempting to force the numbers. How am I `forcing' the numbers? See below, but first, show the logic of your reasoning that river flow *should* have any relationship to crop circle timing in any year. Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 Mar+Ap+May flow 18 24 35 22 Apr+May circs 24 14 9 4 For one thing, you make the same mistake as on the researcher's page. You cannot use the total number of circles recorded in a month to show a timeline trend. Using an example I've used befo I have 4 fields and one month (say May) a circle is built in each one on the 1st. By your method 4 circles are recorded for May. Next year, 3 of the fields are closed to the public, but 4 circles are built in the remaining field, on the 31st. By your method 4 circles are recorded for May. This is further compounded by you combining the totals, so yes, you are forcing the numbers, or at least misrepresenting them for correlation you are attempting to show. The issue is, and has always been, *timing* of the appearance not number of appearances. Mar+Ap flow 13 15 25 15 Apr circs 9 3 0 1 FMD Yes(1)/No(0)0 0 1 0 Incorrect data there. If FMD Yes/No is supposed to indicate where FMD restrictions are in place, you'd be better of showing month by month trends. Total for the year is ridiculous, it shows nothing. snip You're risking more than choosing the correct correlation technique. You've yet to show that the Itchen River flow has any relationship to weather conditions. As for river flow, have you factored in seasonal abstraction from river systems? It is only very rough. Besides seasonal effects should be similar from year to year and factor out. The whole point of this part of the thread was for you to show that changes in weather conditions from year-to-year affect the timing of the appearance of circles in the UK. You are now saying that the weather, being similar from year to year, factors OUT of the equations? Which is it Brian. Does weather affect the appearance of circles or not. If not - what was all the statistics rubbish in aid of? Also there turns up a correlation of river flow to FMD You are yet to provide a logical and reasonable justification for attempting to *find* a correlation. Until you do this is just numerology. Jan Feb Mar Apr May 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.68 Different set of data again. You go on later to compare annual totals with monthly correlations yet you do not show the working. May being when it was finished there? This "correlation" implies what? That for some reason Itchen river flow was high at the same time FMD was present. One last one - why did you only use the Itchen River data when there is more than over a dozen stations in the Hampsire area you could have included? Not only that, you take the data in isolation. Try putting it in context with the rest of the available hydrological data available at that site. River flow affects government decisions on lifting FMD restrictions? Presumably the restricitions were lifted when it was thought there was less risk. I doubt there would have been any talk of rivers transporting FMD. When the land dried a bit stock could get out into the fields and have a bit less close contact and so less chance for transmission of FMD. Show a cite for this presumption. You won't be able to, because it is wrong, but I'd like to see how you came to this incorrect assumption. I documented exactly what the determination process by the government was. THis is pure obfuscation, Brian. But anyway taking the Mar Apr May flows figures, since weather might stop hoaxers, You are yet to show that the Itchen River flow readings actually has any reflection on the weather pattern trends. Next you will be asking me to prove that day is going to be lighter than night. At least that would be logic that any reasonable person could follow. But since YOU are putting forward the contention that the river station data CAN be used to reflect weather pattern trends, it IS up to you to show it. You went up this particular creek - and I think you'll find you forgot the paddle. r(flows-fmd) = 0.94. And is there a correlation between FMD & circles? Yes, r(fmd-circles) = -0.29, a small negative correlation, rather less than from above r(flows-circles) = -0.49. Then what happens when partial correlation is used to get a feel for removing affects of the factors? When the effects of the rivers are nullified then FMD becomes *positively* related to circles. r(fmd-circles.flows) = 0.57 instead of -0.29 which indicates flows are connected to cause. No it doesn't - it's just illogical numerology (how's THAT for an tautology?). It's also a contradiction of your own conviction that correlation isn't causation. Again I ask, which is it Brian? and for completeness r(flows-fmd.circles) = 0.96 instead of 0.94, no change, rather indicating circles not causative, r(flows-circles.fmd) = -0.66 instead of -0.49, not much change indicating FMD not really causative. With that small amount of data, so far, some of that could be by chance. And also shows that you can "prove" anything with forced numbers and illogical connections. Here is the formula for you to have some fun: snip You need to show that there is a logical connection between the data befor you can attempt to derive and analyse correlations. You've yet to do so. Manipulating the data in isolation and also ignoring the other station data doesn't help either. When the partial correlation tends to zero that means the partialled out variable is causal and the non-partial correlation is spurious. When the partial correlation is no different from the non-partial, that means the partailled out variable is not causal. When the data is taken in isolation, misunderstood and incomplete, ALL conclusions are spurious. You need first to show that there is a logical connection between a single river's flow trend as an indicator of weather conditions (rainfall, temperature, sunshine). How about using *weather* data directly for the county, instead of attempting to derive this data from a single river monitoring station? The first crop circle for 2001 was in Hampshire at latitude 50 deg 58.6 min north, longitude 1 deg 5.9 mins west. That is only 10 or 20 miles from the Itchen river (which has its mouth near Southampton). It is not a big reiver and seems to have its source on the same side of South Downs. .... and you ignore the dozen or so other station data. .... and you are yet to show a logical connection between river flow and weather .... and you are yet to show a logical connection between weather and FMD .... and you are yet to show a logical connection between river flow and FMD I suggest you read the guidelines and summaries on the NRFA site before you waste any more time crunching unconnected data. -- Eric Hocking |
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In alt.freemasonry Eric Hocking wrote:
Brian Sandle wrote in message ... Eric Hocking wrote: Brian Sandle wrote in message ... Eric Hocking wrote: [...] I have, in spite of your diversion attempts, tried (and I believe succeeded) in showing that the crop circle proponent's arguments that FMD (pedestrian) restrictions had no impact on circle building in 2001 in the UK is unsupportable. What can be concluded from that is up to those that have been lurking. I thought river flows might give some indication of weather. Only of rainfall in the catchment area, surely? While *you* might think river flow gives some indication of weather, you have not shown it to be so. They may be a better indication than weather of what the ground is like. You're saying that a single river's flow pattern taken from one station on the river The river sums the water as it comes in. If any is being taken out I presume it will be less in wet weather. is a better indicator of a region's weather that the weather data gathered by the Bureau of Meteorological's database from over 30 stations throughout the region? http://www.met-office.gov.uk/climate/uk/networks/climnet2.html The Itchen river is closer to the Hamphsire site than most of those stations. There are not 30 in the region - only a few, and mainly near the coast. That's not logical. Why is it that you chose to ignore the rainfall data at the site you gleaned the river flow data from, as well as the hydrological summary put together by experts AND the groundwater discussion. I was just wanting a quick result. Ground water is a bit deeper. I think it takes longer to refill. That happens when stress is taken off the wells. Rainfall, as I said, sums into the river. Why is that Brian? If I were a cynical person I might mention the phrase "data mining". I was looking for the weather and came across the river data. I did not go searching out what fits to that point. I did then take a look at which months of river flow fitted best. More on data choice below. Why don't you put your (incorrect) assumption on the data into the full context of the information provided. I think it is pretty good. They do not increase flow until the ground is saturated. (Though, not appropriate to UK in my knowledge, fast run off can occur off baked land.) Your knowledge of UK weather and water reserves is limited then - and you would have realised this if you had actually read the monthly summaries relating to rainfall, river flow and groundwater on the site you decided to ONLY use river flow data from. Comment on your data below. FYI. Earlier this year we experienced torrential rain after a longer and drier than usual summer in 2003. Water companies reported that the rivers/reservoirs and especially groundwater reserves were not being replenished because of the rain running of the dry earth. Yes the water was being lost. The reservoirs would still have to be used. Again, your assumptions do not reflect the facts. I put that bit in brackets because it happens later in the season. I didn't realise an island country with a latitude like UK's would get very dry. The rest of your calculations, while interesting, do not show anything of the sort. Why not just check the monthly weather figures from the Government Meteorological Bureau? http://www.met-office.gov.uk/climate/uk/ Monthly numbers are available to 1998, but your best bet is from 1999 as the data is tabulated. It would be complex factoring in evapotranspiration. Sod complex factoring - all you want to know is weather conditions in the region. The weather was introduced as an explanation for late crops. But river flows sum the weather and give even more of a picture than the weather. This is supplied in better detail and accuracy by weather station data than unsound derivations from river flow data that you do not completely understand. But there are few in the area. Since there are only 4 years it is not really worth it. You obviously didn't look or try too hard. The data sets go back to 1855, and the three prime weather indicators (as far as crops may be concerned, rainfall, hours of sunshine and min/max temperatures) are available back to 1895. ie http://www.met-office.gov.uk/climate/uk/stationdata/southamptondata.txt I might look for river flows back further and relate crops circles. snip Whoa, whoa, whoa. You've jumped from *thinking* that river flow *may* correlate to weather (uh, what about sunshine and temperature, especially wrt crops?) Extra flows indicate the ground cannot hold the water, Incorrect and not just for physical reasons stated above. There are economical, political and social conditions that can affect river flow. Not the least of which is the changes in water abstraction licensing in the UK, let alone changes in irrigation practices in the UK agricultural industry. More will be taken out in dry weather. Your entire set of calculations are based on incorrect assumptions and therefore of little use. Where is a measure of surface ground saturation? And I not fungi do not grow until the ground dries a bit. Not that I am saying it is fungi, but that in some cases it may be. been less sunshine and temperature. As shown above, if you do not fully understand the data gathering process, let alone the data itself, adding in external factors such as pressures on water resources in a region, why attempt to derive weather conditions, probably incorrectly, when you have a WEATHER resource available to you? Here's a timeline of weather conditions and crops in Hampshire. / I'll do the sums for you: Month Sun Mean Cum. Jan Hours Temp Rainfall -Aug (C) (mm) 1999 1102 10.7 771 2000 1127 10.4 732 2001 1193 10.1 719 2002 1054 10.6 854 Well whaddayano? 2001 had the MOST sunshine, the LOWEST mean temperature and LEAST rainfall for those years. I'll fully admit that this is for the entire SW, but it does not gel with your conclusions very well at all. Oh, before you ask, numbers for Mar, Apr ,May a Yes, why did you give up to August? I did not look at river flows that far. 1999 406 9.5 259 2000 451 8.8 306 2001 454 8.5 288 2002 466 9.1 300 From your graph, thanks, the rain eased by May in 2001. That would drop the total for those three months. The slope of the cumulative rainfall graph shows the amount of rain effect. Note a long constant slope in 2001, starting from only 100 in mid Jan and going to nearly 500 by mid Apr. And only about 50 hours of sun to mid March. There was not much sun in 2002 either in that time, but the slope of the rainfall graph tapered off. Circles were also a bit few in 2002, BTW. straight to *proving* a correlation between river flow to crop circle emergence and FMD? Try showing the logic of this before attempting to force the numbers. How am I `forcing' the numbers? See below, but first, show the logic of your reasoning that river flow *should* have any relationship to crop circle timing in any year. I need some help with statistical education. There is always the warning against doing lots of correlations and taking the ones you think you like. If there is 5% chance of any particular result happening by chance then the more you take the more likely your result is by chance. So you are told to think out a theory and test it by stats. I feel that that is now rather hit and miss. Your theory and the stats still have a 5% chance of being wrong. What is needed is an analysis which deals with that. That usually means wait until 20 more people have repeated your work, doesn't it? My approach would be to look for all correlations with knowledge that 5% are by chance, to acknowledge that but to try to build a pattern of what is happening using the partial correlations to help, and to decide on further directions, not to wait the years for people to check the one correlation you have done. I tend to develop reasoning after seeing a pattern. Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 Mar+Ap+May flow 18 24 35 22 Apr+May circs 24 14 9 4 For one thing, you make the same mistake as on the researcher's page. You cannot use the total number of circles recorded in a month to show a timeline trend. If there are fewer circles then they are likely to start later. Using an example I've used befo I have 4 fields and one month (say May) a circle is built in each one on the 1st. By your method 4 circles are recorded for May. Next year, 3 of the fields are closed to the public, but 4 circles are built in the remaining field, on the 31st. By your method 4 circles are recorded for May. Yes, but fewer show Apr - May. This is further compounded by you combining the totals, so yes, you are forcing the numbers, or at least misrepresenting them for correlation you are attempting to show. The issue is, and has always been, *timing* of the appearance not number of appearances. I could go back and give 0 for none that month and 1 if any occurred. Might not be too different. Mar+Ap flow 13 15 25 15 Apr circs 9 3 0 1 FMD Yes(1)/No(0)0 0 1 0 Incorrect data there. If FMD Yes/No is supposed to indicate where FMD restrictions are in place, you'd be better of showing month by month trends. Total for the year is ridiculous, it shows nothing. It is not total for year it is only if FMD was present in the tiem just preceding when the circles normally appear. snip You're risking more than choosing the correct correlation technique. You've yet to show that the Itchen River flow has any relationship to weather conditions. As for river flow, have you factored in seasonal abstraction from river systems? It is only very rough. Besides seasonal effects should be similar from year to year and factor out. The whole point of this part of the thread was for you to show that changes in weather conditions from year-to-year affect the timing of the appearance of circles in the UK. You are now saying that the weather, being similar from year to year, factors OUT of the equations? Which is it Brian. Does weather affect the appearance of circles or not. If not - what was all the statistics rubbish in aid of? Seasonal abstraction I thought meant that more water is drawn in the dry season of each year. In a wet year that will be below average. Also there turns up a correlation of river flow to FMD You are yet to provide a logical and reasonable justification for attempting to *find* a correlation. Until you do this is just numerology. See above theory. Jan Feb Mar Apr May 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.68 Different set of data again. You go on later to compare annual totals with monthly correlations yet you do not show the working. Just giving the individual months before combining. May being when it was finished there? This "correlation" implies what? That for some reason Itchen river flow was high at the same time FMD was present. One last one - why did you only use the Itchen River data when there is more than over a dozen stations in the Hampsire area you could have included? Not in your map on that side of South Downs. Not only that, you take the data in isolation. Try putting it in context with the rest of the available hydrological data available at that site. Where is the surface ground saturation data? River flow affects government decisions on lifting FMD restrictions? Presumably the restricitions were lifted when it was thought there was less risk. I doubt there would have been any talk of rivers transporting FMD. When the land dried a bit stock could get out into the fields and have a bit less close contact and so less chance for transmission of FMD. Show a cite for this presumption. You won't be able to, because it is wrong, but I'd like to see how you came to this incorrect assumption. They have less contact with the other animals' excrement or drinking water so probability of rapid spread reduces. I documented exactly what the determination process by the government was. THis is pure obfuscation, Brian. I just presumed that when the disease was controlled the restricitons were removed. It did not become controlled while the animals were cramped together. But anyway taking the Mar Apr May flows figures, since weather might stop hoaxers, You are yet to show that the Itchen River flow readings actually has any reflection on the weather pattern trends. Next you will be asking me to prove that day is going to be lighter than night. At least that would be logic that any reasonable person could follow. But since YOU are putting forward the contention that the river station data CAN be used to reflect weather pattern trends, it IS up to you to show it. The important summed weather effect is likely to be reflected in river flows. You went up this particular creek - and I think you'll find you forgot the paddle. Allow me to associate ideas. A paddle control on an old computer could be hooked up to record surface ground resistance therefore water saturation. r(flows-fmd) = 0.94. And is there a correlation between FMD & circles? Yes, r(fmd-circles) = -0.29, a small negative correlation, rather less than from above r(flows-circles) = -0.49. Then what happens when partial correlation is used to get a feel for removing affects of the factors? When the effects of the rivers are nullified then FMD becomes *positively* related to circles. r(fmd-circles.flows) = 0.57 instead of -0.29 which indicates flows are connected to cause. No it doesn't - it's just illogical numerology (how's THAT for an tautology?). I didn't say they are cause. Somehow they are likely to be connected to it. It's also a contradiction of your own conviction that correlation isn't causation. Again I ask, which is it Brian? Correlation is not causation, but partial correlation hints at causation. and for completeness r(flows-fmd.circles) = 0.96 instead of 0.94, no change, rather indicating circles not causative, r(flows-circles.fmd) = -0.66 instead of -0.49, not much change indicating FMD not really causative. With that small amount of data, so far, some of that could be by chance. And also shows that you can "prove" anything with forced numbers and illogical connections. Here is the formula for you to have some fun: snip Snipped the formula? Don't you like it? You need to show that there is a logical connection between the data befor you can attempt to derive and analyse correlations. You've yet to do so. See again, above theory. Manipulating the data in isolation and also ignoring the other station data doesn't help either. There wasn't any closer. Also you included irrelevant months. When the partial correlation tends to zero that means the partialled out variable is causal and the non-partial correlation is spurious. When the partial correlation is no different from the non-partial, that means the partailled out variable is not causal. When the data is taken in isolation, misunderstood and incomplete, ALL conclusions are spurious. That is not the technical sense of the word. As I said the old way is to wait for people to repeat your experiment. I think there is better way to do things. You need first to show that there is a logical connection between a single river's flow trend as an indicator of weather conditions (rainfall, temperature, sunshine). How about using *weather* data directly for the county, instead of attempting to derive this data from a single river monitoring station? The first crop circle for 2001 was in Hampshire at latitude 50 deg 58.6 min north, longitude 1 deg 5.9 mins west. That is only 10 or 20 miles from the Itchen river (which has its mouth near Southampton). It is not a big reiver and seems to have its source on the same side of South Downs. ... and you ignore the dozen or so other station data. list them. ... and you are yet to show a logical connection between river flow and weather It shows on your diagram. ... and you are yet to show a logical connection between weather and FMD Many diseases are seasonal. Humans can get more fungal diseases in hot humid weather when the sweat provides the environment. Lack of sunlight reduces vitamin D an important immune regulator, helpful against TB I think. ... and you are yet to show a logical connection between river flow and FMD Cooped up animals meant it could be spread easily and rapidly. I suggest you read the guidelines and summaries on the NRFA site before you waste any more time crunching unconnected data. National Rural Fire Authority? Now if I were dealing with a summer disease I might correlate to fire risk, since that would indicate moisture. |
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