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60 Minutes 4/17



 
 
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  #21  
Old April 19th 05, 02:05 PM
Dan Luke
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"aluckyguess" wrote:
If there was enough volume they could build the plane for less than 50k. It
would replace all the old Piper, Cessna and Beech 2 and 4 seat aircraft.
They sell new cars for way less and there looks to be more work in a new

car
than a small plane.


You have confused the auto business with the airplane business. Auto
manufacturing allows economies of scale unatainable by aircraft mfg. And
remember, auto makers break even or lose money on many of their models.

I think if they could sell 1000 a month you could build it for under 50k or
close to it.


And if frogs had wings...

Therein lies the main weakness in your argument. You imagine there is a vast
pool of pent-up demand. Do you believe there are buyers for 1,000 Cherokee
180s/month? How about after the first, second years? Remember, over the 40
year production history of all models of the Cessna 172/175, only 43,000 have
been built. That's a long way from 1,000/mo.

[snip]

I know if Lycoming had a quote come in for 12000 IO 360 engines the price
would drop quite a bit.


Maybe not, because they would still build them the same way at first.
Mobilization costs to handle the increased volume would have to be added to
the margin made on each engine. The same thing goes for New Piper: if they
suddenly had a backlog of 12,000 airplanes, they'd have to build new
factories and so would all their suppliers. It would take years to reach the
capacity to meet that demand efficiently. And here's the rub: by the time
they had all this capacity was built, practically everyone who wanted a new
180 would have one, and there wouldn't be enough new customers to pay off the
enormous debt NP (and its suppliers) would have after they built all those
factories.

You can buy a brand new LS6 corvette engine for 5000.00 that tells me they
are building it for around 1500.


Why does it tell you that? And what do you reckon the liability cost
component of an LS6 is compared to a Lyc. O-360?
--
Dan
C-172RG at BFM


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  #22  
Old April 19th 05, 04:15 PM
aluckyguess
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Default


"Highflyer" wrote in message
...

"aluckyguess" wrote in message
...
snip
The only thing I don't know is what the insurance would cost.
I know if Lycoming had a quote come in for 12000 IO 360 engines the price
would drop quite a bit.
You can buy a brand new LS6 corvette engine for 5000.00 that tells me
they are building it for around 1500.


Actually if Lycoming had an order for 12000 IO360 engines from one
customer the price would probably go up and the quality would go down.
Lycoming sold all of their machinery and has all of their parts made
outside by subcontractors. Each subcontractor has a significant "learning
curve" coming up to speed. ( See the court case that Lycoming lost
recently about crankshaft specifications and manufacturing procedures )
They would be unable to get enough parts at any price to assemble them in
a reasonable time. ( NOTE: this is an opinion based on my knowledge of
the aircraft engine business. )

They would find someone. Their are plenty of other crank manufactures.
Highflyer
Highflight Aviation Services
Pinckneyville Airport ( PJY )






  #23  
Old April 19th 05, 04:16 PM
aluckyguess
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"Dan Luke" wrote in message
...

"aluckyguess" wrote:
If there was enough volume they could build the plane for less than 50k.
It
would replace all the old Piper, Cessna and Beech 2 and 4 seat aircraft.
They sell new cars for way less and there looks to be more work in a new

car
than a small plane.


You have confused the auto business with the airplane business. Auto
manufacturing allows economies of scale unatainable by aircraft mfg. And
remember, auto makers break even or lose money on many of their models.

Like I said they just need the volume and it could be done.
I think if they could sell 1000 a month you could build it for under 50k
or
close to it.


And if frogs had wings...

Therein lies the main weakness in your argument. You imagine there is a
vast
pool of pent-up demand. Do you believe there are buyers for 1,000
Cherokee
180s/month? How about after the first, second years? Remember, over the
40
year production history of all models of the Cessna 172/175, only 43,000
have
been built. That's a long way from 1,000/mo.

[snip]

I know if Lycoming had a quote come in for 12000 IO 360 engines the price
would drop quite a bit.


Maybe not, because they would still build them the same way at first.
Mobilization costs to handle the increased volume would have to be added
to
the margin made on each engine. The same thing goes for New Piper: if
they
suddenly had a backlog of 12,000 airplanes, they'd have to build new
factories and so would all their suppliers. It would take years to reach
the
capacity to meet that demand efficiently. And here's the rub: by the time
they had all this capacity was built, practically everyone who wanted a
new
180 would have one, and there wouldn't be enough new customers to pay off
the
enormous debt NP (and its suppliers) would have after they built all those
factories.

You can buy a brand new LS6 corvette engine for 5000.00 that tells me
they
are building it for around 1500.


Why does it tell you that? And what do you reckon the liability cost
component of an LS6 is compared to a Lyc. O-360?
--
Dan
C-172RG at BFM




  #24  
Old April 19th 05, 11:32 PM
John Galban
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default


aluckyguess wrote:
If there was enough volume they could build the plane for less than

50k. It
would replace all the old Piper, Cessna and Beech 2 and 4 seat

aircraft.
They sell new cars for way less and there looks to be more work in a

new car
than a small plane.


If the moon were made of green cheese, astronauts wouldn't need
Cheez Whiz. Simply put, there is not a market for the amount of new
planes you envision. New cars models are sold in the hundreds of
thousands per year. At that volume, manufacturers can afford to buy
robots to automate most of the work. Common parts can be interchanged
and bought very cheaply in large quantities. At GA volumes, planes
still have to be built by hand, much the way they've always been built.
That's where the cost of a plane skyrockets. I've visited the new
Cessna plant. It looks more like a huge hanger with hundreds of
homebuilders than an actual factory.

As far as there being more work involved building a new car than a
plane, all I can say is that you've obviously never built a plane
before.

I think if they could sell 1000 a month you could build it for under

50k or
close to it. The only thing I don't know is what the insurance would

cost.
I know if Lycoming had a quote come in for 12000 IO 360 engines the

price
would drop quite a bit.


Even at 1000 a month, you still can't come close to the economies of
scale that are common to the auto industry. Therefore, you shouldn't
realistically expect the price to come close either.

John Galban=====N4BQ (PA28-180)

  #25  
Old April 20th 05, 02:06 AM
aluckyguess
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default


"John Galban" wrote in message
ups.com...

aluckyguess wrote:
If there was enough volume they could build the plane for less than

50k. It
would replace all the old Piper, Cessna and Beech 2 and 4 seat

aircraft.
They sell new cars for way less and there looks to be more work in a

new car
than a small plane.


If the moon were made of green cheese, astronauts wouldn't need
Cheez Whiz. Simply put, there is not a market for the amount of new
planes you envision. New cars models are sold in the hundreds of
thousands per year. At that volume, manufacturers can afford to buy
robots to automate most of the work. Common parts can be interchanged
and bought very cheaply in large quantities. At GA volumes, planes
still have to be built by hand, much the way they've always been built.
That's where the cost of a plane skyrockets. I've visited the new
Cessna plant. It looks more like a huge hanger with hundreds of
homebuilders than an actual factory.

As far as there being more work involved building a new car than a
plane, all I can say is that you've obviously never built a plane
before.

I have build plane parts my whole life.
Before I tell you how I think it can be done I am going to pitch my plan to
Piper if they dont listen I will try Cessna. It can be done and I think I
know a way to create the market.
If I was to go on this group and offer for sale a brand new 2005 Warrior for
under 60k with financeing how many would buy it? I know I would order one.


I think if they could sell 1000 a month you could build it for under

50k or
close to it. The only thing I don't know is what the insurance would

cost.
I know if Lycoming had a quote come in for 12000 IO 360 engines the

price
would drop quite a bit.


Even at 1000 a month, you still can't come close to the economies of
scale that are common to the auto industry. Therefore, you shouldn't
realistically expect the price to come close either.

John Galban=====N4BQ (PA28-180)



  #26  
Old April 20th 05, 02:22 AM
Dan Luke
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Posts: n/a
Default


"aluckyguess" wrote:
Before I tell you how I think it can be done I am going to pitch my
plan to Piper if they dont listen I will try Cessna.


I'm sure they'll enjoy the laugh--if you can get in the door.

If I was to go on this group and offer for sale a brand new 2005
Warrior for under 60k with financeing how many would buy it?


Does that include paint?


  #27  
Old April 20th 05, 03:44 AM
Newps
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default



aluckyguess wrote:


If I was to go on this group and offer for sale a brand new 2005 Warrior for
under 60k with financeing how many would buy it? I know I would order one.


A Warrior? Never, wing's on the wrong side.
  #28  
Old April 20th 05, 03:45 AM
Jimbob
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Default

On Mon, 18 Apr 2005 23:38:33 -0400, "Morgans"
wrote:


"Jimbob" wrote

A LSA could be much more capable than a 152. A nice slippery one could bop
along at the LSA top speed of 120 knots, compared to the 152's top speed of
108 knots. That means it would take the 152 an extra 33 minutes to get to
where the LSA got to, when taking a 5 hour trip. Not huge, but notable, I
think.



I agree completely. The specs are in line. The planes look great.
The fuel consumption is awesome and most use mogas. Consensus repair
parts should be significantly less expensive. And current total costs
are with certified powerplants that still have amortized FAA
certification costs associated with them.

When engines come out that were designed to consensus standards
without the FAA overhead, price should move down. Imaginge a rebuild
for only $4K. That should make cost of ownership drop quite a bit.

I am really interested in what shakes out from the inital sales in the
next few months(And at sun&fun). I would really be stunned if LSA
does not take off like a rocket.

Jim

http://www.unconventional-wisdom.org
  #29  
Old April 20th 05, 04:40 AM
Dave Stadt
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default


"aluckyguess" wrote in message
...

"Dan Luke" wrote in message
...

"aluckyguess" wrote:
If there was enough volume they could build the plane for less than

50k.
It
would replace all the old Piper, Cessna and Beech 2 and 4 seat

aircraft.
They sell new cars for way less and there looks to be more work in a

new
car
than a small plane.


You have confused the auto business with the airplane business. Auto
manufacturing allows economies of scale unatainable by aircraft mfg.

And
remember, auto makers break even or lose money on many of their models.

Like I said they just need the volume and it could be done.


Where is the demand going to come from? There are not enough people
interested in flying their own planes to even come close to providing
manufacturers any economy of scale.


  #30  
Old April 20th 05, 04:42 AM
Dave Stadt
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Posts: n/a
Default


"Dan Luke" wrote in message
...

"aluckyguess" wrote:
Before I tell you how I think it can be done I am going to pitch my
plan to Piper if they dont listen I will try Cessna.


I'm sure they'll enjoy the laugh--if you can get in the door.

If I was to go on this group and offer for sale a brand new 2005
Warrior for under 60k with financeing how many would buy it?


Does that include paint?


It's a complete airplane except for airframe, engine and avionics.


 




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