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#1
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Bad day in Oklahoma
I was scheduled to fly today; my CFI said I need some work on landings before
he'd sign me off. I checked ADDS before I left the house, and the TAF said there should have a 14 knot crosswind component, which would be OK. In Oklahoma if you can't do crosswind T/O's, you can't fly. When I got the field, the flags in front of the FBO were furling perpendicular to 17/35. I watch a Hawker takeoff on 17L and went in the flight school and rescheduled. Bummer, I could fly again today. When I got home the news said we had two wild fires in Oklahoma. One in the south. At one time the fire front was eight miles across. The land to the south is flat rangeland, and the fire spread fast and wide. The other was in Lincoln County, which is hilly with lots of trees and undergrowth. The fire trucks could get in to the fires. They had too wait at the roads for the fire to come to them. Because of the winds the tankers could not takeoff form Ardmore (KADM). One of the single pilot tankers did run off of the runway. The pilot is OK and walked away. The plane did not catch fire. They were worried that a fire might get to the other tankers. I'm not clear on the story about tankers. A fire chief said that not all of the fires out to the south, but they had it contained. As the news helicopter shows someone's house total involved. Hadn't heard anything about the fire in Lincoln County. Me not able to fly today, seem a little trivial. GeorgeC |
#2
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Bad day in Oklahoma
A fire chief said that not all of the fires out to the south, but they had
it contained. As the news helicopter shows someone's house total involved. Hadn't heard anything about the fire in Lincoln County. Me not able to fly today, seem a little trivial. Funny how everything is relative. Sounds like you made the right decision. I did too. We were supposed to fly to Wisconsin yesterday, to visit friends. The weather was forecast to be perfect, but things started heading downhill with the outlook briefing two days ago. Then, yesterday's prediction was changed to be marginal, but today was supposed to still be good. Today absolutely sucks, with freezing rain and snow along the route of flight. 72 hours ago, it was predicted to be sunny and warm. Had we departed yesterday, we'd be stuck in Wisconsin for sure. Weather forecasting computer models are so incredibly flawed that they can't reliably predict the weather 12 hours in advance -- yet, for some unknown reason, many people trust computer models that purport to show what the climate will be like in the year 2100. -- Jay Honeck Iowa City, IA Pathfinder N56993 www.AlexisParkInn.com "Your Aviation Destination" |
#3
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Bad day in Oklahoma
Weather forecasting computer models are so incredibly flawed that they can't
reliably predict the weather 12 hours in advance -- yet, for some unknown reason, many people trust computer models that purport to show what the climate will be like in the year 2100. Jay, you hit on one of my favorite rants here : ) Vagaries of weather forecasting aside, and I'm certainly no expert - but you'd think with the bazillion dollar constellation of wx satellites in orbit the weather-guessers would have it down by now, or at least better than the .500(?) avg it seems they're struggling with... |
#4
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Bad day in Oklahoma
PS
My CFI called to today and he has sinusitis and will be grounded for three days. Things just keep getting better and better. On a good note, the "Director of Flight Instruction" was looking at the Prog charts, and said, "It actually looks like if might rain." I just checked the patio and it was sprinkling. GeorgeC |
#5
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Bad day in Oklahoma
btw - back in 1984, NASA was estimating that it would need several orders
of magnitude more computing power to run better wx models (they had a so-so model that took 48 hours to run in order to generate a 24 hour forecast!). Well, they've still got a long ways to go, that's for sure. I haven't been able to rely on ANY weather forecasts this winter. It's my impression that the NWS is having a very hard time of it, this year. -- Jay Honeck Iowa City, IA Pathfinder N56993 www.AlexisParkInn.com "Your Aviation Destination" |
#6
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Bad day in Oklahoma
"Jay Honeck" wrote in message news:iYJNf.588844$084.268831@attbi_s22... btw - back in 1984, NASA was estimating that it would need several orders of magnitude more computing power to run better wx models (they had a so-so model that took 48 hours to run in order to generate a 24 hour forecast!). Well, they've still got a long ways to go, that's for sure. I haven't been able to rely on ANY weather forecasts this winter. It's my impression that the NWS is having a very hard time of it, this year. -- Jay Honeck Iowa City, IA Pathfinder N56993 www.AlexisParkInn.com "Your Aviation Destination" In defense of the NWS I doubt this winter in the midwest fit any previous recorded model. Was heading up to American Champion this morning and ran into unforecasted near blizzard conditions. |
#7
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Bad day in Oklahoma
I haven't been able to rely on ANY weather forecasts this winter.
The BBC has much better forecasts. Here's one from some years back; it's still valid: Tonight's forecast - dark. Continued dark throughout the night, patches of light appearing just before dawn. Increasing brightness throughout the day, with areas of dark building as evening comes. Darkness will gather strength throughout the next evening. If you missed seven forty five last night, don't worry, it will be back again tomorrow, at a quarter to eight. Jose -- Money: what you need when you run out of brains. for Email, make the obvious change in the address. |
#8
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Bad day in Oklahoma
Does the name George Carlin ring a familiar note?
Jim Tonight's forecast - dark. Continued dark throughout the night, patches of light appearing just before dawn. Increasing brightness throughout the day, with areas of dark building as evening comes. Darkness will gather strength throughout the next evening. If you missed seven forty five last night, don't worry, it will be back again tomorrow, at a quarter to eight. Jose -- Money: what you need when you run out of brains. for Email, make the obvious change in the address. |
#9
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Bad day in Oklahoma
"Jay Honeck" wrote Well, they've still got a long ways to go, that's for sure. I haven't been able to rely on ANY weather forecasts this winter. It's my impression that the NWS is having a very hard time of it, this year. Hmm, around here, there has been very little to forcast. A few minor rain events, a couple of temperature dips. It has just been a mild, nothing of a winter. Watch it all turn around, and dump a buttload of snow on us, before it is done! g -- Jim in NC |
#10
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Bad day in Oklahoma
"GeorgeC" wrote in message ... snip When I got home the news said we had two wild fires in Oklahoma. One in the south. At one time the fire front was eight miles across. The land to the south is flat rangeland, and the fire spread fast and wide. The other was in Lincoln County, which is hilly with lots of trees and undergrowth. The fire trucks could get in to the fires. They had too wait at the roads for the fire to come to them. Because of the winds the tankers could not takeoff form Ardmore (KADM). One of the single pilot tankers did run off of the runway. The pilot is OK and walked away. The plane did not catch fire. They were worried that a fire might get to the other tankers. I'm not clear on the story about tankers. A fire chief said that not all of the fires out to the south, but they had it contained. As the news helicopter shows someone's house total involved. Hadn't heard anything about the fire in Lincoln County. Me not able to fly today, seem a little trivial. GeorgeC I guess they forgot the fire just down the road from me! We had fire trucks waiting in line at the hydrant in front of the house for hours. Monday we had one fire 6 miles North of town that came within a mile of a chemical plant. The worst part of all of this is the volunteer firemen who were injured. I used to get annoyed at all the news reports of forest fires during fire season in the mountain states. I'm a little more sympathetic now that we have fire bombers dropping on prairie fires. I never thought I'd see the day. Joe Schneider N8437R ----== Posted via Newsfeeds.Com - Unlimited-Unrestricted-Secure Usenet News==---- http://www.newsfeeds.com The #1 Newsgroup Service in the World! 120,000+ Newsgroups ----= East and West-Coast Server Farms - Total Privacy via Encryption =---- |
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