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Soaring already DOA for the season???



 
 
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  #21  
Old March 27th 20, 02:25 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Mike N.
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Default Soaring already DOA for the season???

I'm not interested in debating this. Read the article and draw your own conclusions.

The point of the article is that the models of infection and death rate have been skewed to high.

It is certainly tragic to lose people to disease whether it be Covid-19 or influenza, etc.

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  #22  
Old March 27th 20, 05:41 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Duster[_2_]
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Default Soaring already DOA for the season???

Mike,
I heard this news broadcast earlier today. Glad you posted it here as I think as many people as possible should read it, if nothing else but to calm those put into a panic because of these outrageous predictions that are not based on reasonable models. Those figures were the ones California’s governor Newsom used to argue that 765,000 deaths would occur in that one state alone over the next 7 weeks. There are other epidemiological studies out there that have more credible modeling criterion and I hope they get widely published soon.
  #23  
Old March 27th 20, 06:01 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
George Haeh
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Default Soaring already DOA for the season???

The survivors (percentage to be determined) will see in the next couple months which forecasts were closest.

My forecast is that certain jurisdictions will keep the lid on and others will see a runaway.
  #24  
Old March 27th 20, 07:23 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
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Default Soaring already DOA for the season???

It looks to me that the Federalist report is deeply flawed in its understanding. It is in fact as a result of the strict suppression measures introduced in the UK the last few days, and also the ongoing increase in ICU capacity, that it is hoped to keep the UK mortality below 20,000 and those measures were partly informed by the Imperial College report. So it's an updated prediction from Neil Ferguson in the light of the practical responses to the ICL study and not a roll back. I hope he is right.

For an objective report of his evidence look at the New Scientist or The Times. It is hard to understand how any competent news reporter could have genuinely so misunderstood this.
  #25  
Old March 27th 20, 01:08 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Scott Liebling
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Default Soaring already DOA for the season???

It's why I won't ride my motorcycle during this pandemic. While I'm reasonably certain that nothing would happen, I wouldn't want to be "that guy" who piles on an already overburdened health care system just in case something did happen.
  #26  
Old March 27th 20, 01:30 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Dave Nadler
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Default Soaring already DOA for the season???

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 10:29:27 PM UTC-4, George Haeh wrote:
There may be a lull in infections in the May-June time frame...


I assume you're talking about USA here. If so,probably not, as we a
1) still extremely testing limited
2) not doing wide testing, tracking, or mandatory quarantine of anyone exposed
Those measures are why China has controlled this but we can't.

Two really good write-ups if you are interested in the epidemiology:



These do not address two other important reasons USA is having difficulty:
- CDC and FDA testing screw-ups
- Closure of USA CDC's China pandemic office before this happened
Each of these likely wasted precious time for recognition and containment.

Unfortunately, this will likely get worse for a while.
Hope that helps for those of you scientifically inclined,
Best Regards, Dave
  #27  
Old March 27th 20, 01:41 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
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Default Soaring already DOA for the season???

According to today's Albuquerque Journal newspaper, 8,513 people have been tested, with 136 positive instances of COVID-19 infection in New Mexico. THIRTEEN (13) have been hospitalized and one (1) has died. In a state with a population of 2 million.

If this qualifies as an "overburdened" health care system, I shudder to think what will happen when a REAL pandemic with a serious infection and fatality rate occurs. The government will once again order lockdowns and shutdowns, but the public will remember what happened the last time they cried "WOLF!" And then the S will REALLY HTF.

  #28  
Old March 27th 20, 02:16 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
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Default Soaring already DOA for the season???

Markm so true. As I dictate this I am on my way to our gliderport dragging up my tractor to mow (county isnt mowing now), then were gonna fly today n this weekend. No two place, no instruction, no contact. I don’t have to interact with a single soul on the way up or back, don’t need gas or lunch. So my chance of infecting anyone is dang near zero. I think many other clubs who are not in viral epicenters can do the same.
Dan
  #29  
Old March 27th 20, 02:47 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
BobWa43
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Default Soaring already DOA for the season???

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 8:42:56 PM UTC-4, Matt Herron Jr. wrote:
Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...


Keep the faith Matt. It would appear that the current numbers being reported do not support the doomsday scenarios. There may be hope for soaring this season.
  #30  
Old March 27th 20, 05:45 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Dan Marotta
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Default Soaring already DOA for the season???

All of these cases are tragic but so many people and outlets use the
exception, rather than the rule, to state their case.

Just because one 26 year old gets the virus and requires hospitalization
does not mean that all, most, or even many will do likewise.* It also
does not mean that it won't happen.

Judge for yourself, make your own decisions, live (or die) by the
consequences.* I'll continue to fly and to ride my motorcycle.* I'll
also wash my hands more often.* Those are my decisions.* And I don't
want any crap about my risking the lives of others.* My location and
life style keep me from coming in contact with other people.* If you
live in New Jersey, you need to be more stringent than I do living in
the mountains of New Mexico.

On 3/26/2020 8:12 PM, Andrzej Kobus wrote:
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 9:38:58 PM UTC-4, Mike N. wrote:
Worth a read...

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/26...Ynz_oyZp6z 5U

Tell that to the 26 year old healthy young man who is in coma due to COVID or the 36 year old Principal from NYC, who passed away, no this is not just affecting old people who would die anyway. We only had 137 cases in NH today and 30 of them required hospitalization. That is a high hospitalization %.


--
Dan, 5J
 




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