Euro vs Contrafund Update, or How to Buy a Glider Affordably

Last fall someone asked how to buy an affordable glider from Europe
with the Euro going thru the roof. My response was: "Invest your money
sensibly and wait". I suggested a top ranked diversified mutual fund
such as Fidelity's Contrafund. Here is an update on that strategy.

Euro: $1.2944 (11/15/04)
$1.3165 (3/20/05)
$1.1914 (7/5/05)
-7.957%

FCNTX: $54.79 (11/15/04)
$57.19 (3/20/05)
$59.33 (7/5/05)
8.2862%

Clearly the strategy is working (the differential is 16.2%). Mike
responded with the concern that the Euro was predicted to rise back up
to 1.35 in the next 6-12 months. I wonder what they are predicting
today? My guess is the opposite, but who am I to say? The response to
those predictions is if they REALLY knew they wouldn't and they would
be mortgaging the house to buy currency futures. In reality the rising
Fed Funds rate is making the dollar more attractive to foreigners. And
the Fed rate is only going to go up in the future.

Someone emailed me noting that you would have to pay taxes on your gain
in FCNTX. OK, in the U.S. this will be mostly a capital gain if held
for a year or more (15%).

While we are not yet back to where the Euro hit its all time low, this
strategy is within striking distance (13%).

See you next quarter.

Tom