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Too many accidents



 
 
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  #21  
Old September 6th 18, 03:56 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Jonathon May
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Posts: 82
Default Too many accidents

At 14:44 06 September 2018, 2KA wrote:
Actually, it appears to me that it is sort of the other way around. Last
n=
ight I did an informal survey of accident data over the last 5 years, and
i=
t appears to me that inexperienced pilots rarely have fatal accidents. I
c=
ould only find a couple that involved pilots with less than 1000 hours
tota=
l time.

Instead, the themes that seem to jump out a

- Experienced or highly experienced pilots
- Older pilots (most were in their 60s or 70s)
- Perhaps somewhat limited experience in make/model

I think it is possible that overconfidence in the face of declining
physica=
l ability is a big contributor to fatal accidents.

I don't know if this would hold up to rigorous statistical analysis. For
e=
xample, the NTSB reports only total time, not total glider time. Perhaps
i=
t is just a reflection of our pilot demographic. Still, it is food for
tho=
ught, especially when I look in the mirror.

I'm 62 years old with 4000 hours.

Lynn Alley
"2KA"

Try this link to a very good spin demo

Jon

https://www.youtube.com/attribution_...eature%3Dshare


  #22  
Old September 6th 18, 03:58 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
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Posts: 1
Default Too many accidents

I haven't flown in a while, but a pilot friend of mine and I were recently discussing accidents, and he sent me this thread. I'd like to share a story which may help clubs out there.

Our club had pricing for 1k, 1.5k and 2k tows (extra height when needed). Of course, the 1K was cheapest. There was a typical scenario where a glass ship was filled with water, and the pilot popped off at 1K to save a few bucks, and then tried to scratch away. One day, a student was on the porch with me and an instructor had just launched in his 15m. He had told the student before launch that the most important thing of his flight that day was to be at IP at 800ft when landing. Yet there he was, being blown straight down the middle of the field circling at 600ft. The student actually approached me and told me the story... that it was a really bad example that the instructor was setting.

I was VP for a while, and suggested that the 1K tow be a restricted access tow, only for students that are practicing circuits. This was adopted, and there were no more cases of gliders starting their day with an unscheduled low altitude recovery. It wasn't only the instructor. It was many experienced, private ship owners doing this. Almost to the point of taking a 2K tow meant you didn't have the skills to squeak away from low altitude. This was never said, of course, but actions were certainly speaking louder in that situation. You know who NEVER ended up circling down the middle of a runway at low altitude... students... inexperienced students. They new better.

Sometimes the structure of the system has to be altered to help guide pilots into an environment that is helpful and not detrimental. I think that the 1.5K minimum release altitude for non training flights was a huge step improvement in safety at the club.

Related... I flew a few region 10 contests over the years and in the morning meetings there was a safety moment put on by a selected pilot. These were so helpful. One that was great was to kick a rudder when approaching a thermal where a glider was circling, to see who was below the pilot you were seeing, as that glider is below the nose. Yes, it cost a few feet of altitude, but in one contest a glider ended up sitting 10 feet above another in a glider. I still remember the voice of the pilot of the lower plane, letting the pilot clearly in the wrong know that they would have a discussion on the ground. This was after he pulled full spoilers to clear his tail section to dive out of the way. Scary stuff.

Lots of good ideas out there...
  #23  
Old September 6th 18, 04:06 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
john firth
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Posts: 127
Default Too many accidents

On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 3:37:44 PM UTC-4, wrote:
I have been soaring since the late 70's and can recall many accidents in the past. It seems, however, that recently the accident rate has spiked. While I don't have exact data to confirm this (I'm sure our friends at the SSF have it), it seems that we are experiencing higher than average accidents and fatalities.

I find myself wondering what is causing this. Is it the complexity of gliders emerging in recent years? Is it the age/experience of the pilots? Lack of training? I don't have the answers but I would be interested in other's thoughts on the issue. One accident is too many and loss of any life is tragic.

Greig


The topic is depressing and worrying; However , there is a small
positive factor; when you are flying, you are not at risk of
a highway accident. Perhaps we should subtract from the fatalities the
risk of dying in a road accident.

John F
  #24  
Old September 6th 18, 04:16 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Jonathan St. Cloud
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Posts: 1,463
Default Too many accidents

On Thursday, September 6, 2018 at 7:44:44 AM UTC-7, 2KA wrote:
Actually, it appears to me that it is sort of the other way around. Last night I did an informal survey of accident data over the last 5 years, and it appears to me that inexperienced pilots rarely have fatal accidents. I could only find a couple that involved pilots with less than 1000 hours total time.

Instead, the themes that seem to jump out a

- Experienced or highly experienced pilots
- Older pilots (most were in their 60s or 70s)
- Perhaps somewhat limited experience in make/model

I think it is possible that overconfidence in the face of declining physical ability is a big contributor to fatal accidents.

I don't know if this would hold up to rigorous statistical analysis. For example, the NTSB reports only total time, not total glider time. Perhaps it is just a reflection of our pilot demographic. Still, it is food for thought, especially when I look in the mirror.

I'm 62 years old with 4000 hours.

Lynn Alley
"2KA"


My Father used to teach a college course "The Psychology of Aging". Never took it, too bad. I usually shave in the shower so I don't look at that old man I don't recognize in the mirror. I still see myself as a strapping 40 year old. Age might have something to do failure to get out of a doomed aircraft.

While I respect Tom Knauff, his teachings and writings, I know my CFI friend Dave, whom died in a planned spin with another CFI last week, knew what a rudder does, Sergio, Don, all very experienced. These are not the guys whom skills or knowledge are questioned. For that matter how did Peter Maask spin in, he knew what a rudder does, and I had heard that his trace showed safe speeds. I am afraid we will not know what caused these accidents so we can learn how not to experience these accidents. Why did Matt Wright still have max turn puts at 60 degrees bank on that day?
  #25  
Old September 6th 18, 04:55 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Tango Whisky
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Posts: 402
Default Too many accidents

Le jeudi 6 septembre 2018 17:00:07 UTC+2, Jonathon May a écritÂ*:

https://www.youtube.com/attribution_...eature%3Dshare


This is an excellent video.
  #26  
Old September 6th 18, 06:31 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
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Posts: 580
Default Too many accidents

On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 7:54:59 PM UTC-4, Andy Blackburn wrote:
Not to over-engage in statistical analysis...


Thanks for being analytical, Andy. It encourages us to think rationally about the risks of soaring. You started early, too, and have been through this before. I soloed in 1965 but it was 15 years before someone I knew was killed in a glider crash. In the 38 years since, another 14 have died. Does that mean soaring has gotten more risky? Or have I just met a lot more people in the sport over the years? Are older, more experienced pilots more prone to fatal mistakes? Or--more than less-experienced pilots--are they just exposed to more hours, more types of risks, more chances to make a small mistake that becomes a big mistake?

This year does seem to be worse, but I recall other years where the same thing seemed to be happening. Ours is a tiny sport. One or two accidents can swing the "trend" but aren't necessarily statistically significant.

Saying that this year is within the norm is not the same as saying we don't have a problem. On the other hand, recognizing that soaring will always be riskier than most things we do isn't necessarily a reason to stop doing it..

Just my opinion.

Chip Bearden
67 years old, 53 years/3000 hours in soaring, 15 friends/acquaintances dead in gliding accidents
  #27  
Old September 6th 18, 06:51 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
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Posts: 1
Default Too many accidents

Hi Everyone,

This is my first time posting here. I'm a student up at Williams who has recently started to solo. I have a total of 12 hours in gliders (2hr solo). So, needless to say, I'm rather inexperienced.

I had the privilege of meeting one of the pilots of XC this summer up in Truckee. His passion for soaring and his willingness to answer even my most basic questions was a kind welcome to the community. My sincere condolences to the soaring community, friends, and family.

This is the first time I've personally known a pilot we have tragically lost in a flight-related accident. I once was a serious cyclist, and tragic events have hit close to home, but it doesn't help any.

As a student, I don't know what the learning is here. I may be getting too analytical too soon, but I feel that the best thing we can do to remember lost pilots is to learn from these tragic events as much as possible.

Before I started my training, I read through every NTSB report related to fatal glider accidents from 1996 to 2016. Please take my analysis with a big grain of salt. I'm not an NTSB examiner, an experienced pilot, and categorizing accidents is difficult.

https://addisonhuddy.com/post/flying/handling-risk/

My biggest takeaways are nothing new: have personal limits, don't show off, use checklists, consistent emergency scenario training, know and maintain the glider, no low saves, and always be learning.

The accidents that shake me the most are the ones that we know little about, which is the majority. Take XC, for example, experienced pilots in a modern glider, at 14k waiting to begin a task, and then all of a sudden descend 5000ft and overstress the plane. The NTSB will do the best they can, but as a student who is trying to learn, what am I to take away from this?
  #28  
Old September 6th 18, 07:43 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Charlie M. (UH & 002 owner/pilot)
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Posts: 1,383
Default Too many accidents

Take away?
Mother nature is a bitch.
While not biting you the first, second, etc. time......Mother Nature and gravity WILL make you pay eventually.
Period.
The fall is not bad, the sudden stop at the end can at least ruin your day if not kill you.
Taken from someone that has broken their back twice, neither in any aircraft.
  #29  
Old September 6th 18, 07:47 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Tom BravoMike
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Posts: 266
Default Too many accidents

On Thursday, September 6, 2018 at 12:51:38 PM UTC-5, wrote:
Hi Everyone,

This is my first time posting here. I'm a student up at Williams who has recently started to solo. I have a total of 12 hours in gliders (2hr solo). So, needless to say, I'm rather inexperienced.

I had the privilege of meeting one of the pilots of XC this summer up in Truckee. His passion for soaring and his willingness to answer even my most basic questions was a kind welcome to the community. My sincere condolences to the soaring community, friends, and family.

This is the first time I've personally known a pilot we have tragically lost in a flight-related accident. I once was a serious cyclist, and tragic events have hit close to home, but it doesn't help any.

As a student, I don't know what the learning is here. I may be getting too analytical too soon, but I feel that the best thing we can do to remember lost pilots is to learn from these tragic events as much as possible.

Before I started my training, I read through every NTSB report related to fatal glider accidents from 1996 to 2016. Please take my analysis with a big grain of salt. I'm not an NTSB examiner, an experienced pilot, and categorizing accidents is difficult.

https://addisonhuddy.com/post/flying/handling-risk/

My biggest takeaways are nothing new: have personal limits, don't show off, use checklists, consistent emergency scenario training, know and maintain the glider, no low saves, and always be learning.

The accidents that shake me the most are the ones that we know little about, which is the majority. Take XC, for example, experienced pilots in a modern glider, at 14k waiting to begin a task, and then all of a sudden descend 5000ft and overstress the plane. The NTSB will do the best they can, but as a student who is trying to learn, what am I to take away from this?


Good job, thank you. Two things: 'FLARM, radios, and ADS-B save lives'. My recent experience is that yes, you need as many sources of information as possible. I could hear radio announcements and didn't see anything on the screen (or outside in the air), and vice-versa: nothing seen nor heard but showing on the ADS-B In screen. And I would add: Look out! With more and more displays/instruments we tend to spend too much time watching them.


Second thought: with regards to the 'spin recovery training', you actually limit your remarks to spin avoidance training. How about real life spin and recovery training? I find it indispensable to create automatic, spontaneous reaction to a stall. In my ground school group (11 students) one student pilot stalled and entered initial spin on downwind leg in his 3rd solo flight, as we were all watching. He recovered immediately, automatically, because we had trained it with the instructor.
  #30  
Old September 6th 18, 08:59 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
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Posts: 580
Default Too many accidents

I'm a little concerned about the way the data are displayed geographically. Maybe it's the software but three fatal accidents I'm very familiar with and that are in the NTSB database are missing from the map: two in southwestern OH in 1980-1981 and one in Middletown, NY in 1986.

Yours is a good approach. I'd push back on one conclusion, however: "keep banks to 30 degrees or less in the pattern". Trying to keep the bank angle to a minimum (I know you didn't say this exactly) while still making the turn to final is one of the classic high-risk scenarios. I'd much rather use whatever angle of bank is necessary in a coordinated turn than to risk ruddering it around in a shallower bank. As you point out, keeping the speed up is most important.

Chip Bearden
 




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