Badwater Bill

On Tue, 28 Oct 2008 19:10:31 -0400, "Peter Dohm" wrote:

My point is that, if at that time, two Lancair Legacies were flying in
Australia and one of them crashed; then that would have been a 50% loss.
However, it would have been a meaningless statistic--which, regrettably, is
not uncommon. Therefore, I have enquired as to whether the data was
statistically significant.

Yep. Several homebuilt types have similar annual US fleet accident rates as
Lancairs (examples: Velocity, RANS, Zenair) but the sample sizes vary so much
that one or two accidents more or less can make a real difference. I suspect the
Aussie fleet is quite a bit smaller.

We also have to consider our definition of "Lancair." Is it fair to lump a
Lancair Legacy with a Lancair IVP? Is it fair to lump a Lancair ES with the
original Lancair O-235 (which had a REALLY small tail)?

If you don't...then your sample size gets a lot smaller and your data is less
reliable. How many of those ten Lancairs in Australia were Legacies?

That said, the original two-seat Lancairs did have trouble getting certified in
Australia, way back when. They used to require flight testing of homebuilts
just like production aircraft, and the government test pilots rejected the
Lancair due to its handling qualities.

Ron Wanttaja