Anyone Going to the NWEAA Fly-in (Arlington, WA)?

Part of it is that my dad has to drive for just over an hour to meet me
at the plane. I can't fly (that plane) without him (yet). Also, we
have one other person flying with us that morning who has to drive about
20-30 mins to get to the plane. Lastly, the plane is not IFR equipped
and my instructor/dad is not IFR current. I agree, it's way too early
at 2-3pm or even 5pm on Friday to make a go, no-go decision.

Chris


Peter Duniho wrote:
"Chris G." nospam@noemail wrote in message
news.net...

Yea, if it is not good weather (really good, so my dad says) then we are
not going. While I understand that and appreciate that, it's also kind of
frustrating because he wants to make his go/no-go decision Friday
afternoon when Sat AM may have a totally different perspective.


What's the reason for making the decision so early? Are there alternative
plans that need that much advance notice?

In this sort of weather (humid, at least for the Northwest), it's nearly
impossible to predict with certainty what the fog/cloud situation will be 12
hours in advance.

Inasmuch as even a "go" decision on Friday may have to change to a "no-go"
Saturday morning, why not also allow for the possibility of changing a
"no-go" decision to a "go" decision, if the weather is better than forecast?

Just curious...

Pete

"Chris G." nospam@noemail wrote in message
news.net...
Part of it is that my dad has to drive for just over an hour to meet me at
the plane. I can't fly (that plane) without him (yet). Also, we have one
other person flying with us that morning who has to drive about 20-30 mins
to get to the plane. [...]

"Time to spare, go by air".

I think what I said still holds. A "no-go" decision could still occur as
late as just before takeoff.

Yes, there's wasted time doing things like driving if you don't go, but IMHO
that's just the risk you take with recreational flying. Everyone knows the
"better to be down here wishing you were up there" saying, but I think it's
possible to take that too far. You ought to at least give yourself the best
chance to go, rather than relying on an unreliable forecast to tell you
whether you'll go or not.

Some other silly ideas I have:

* There are four possible outcomes based on a Friday decision: good
forecast, which is correct; bad forecast, which is correct; good forecast,
which is incorrect; bad forecast, which is incorrect. Out of those four
possibilities, if you are determined to make your decision on Friday, then
three of those four possibilities result in you not flying Saturday. Them's
pretty lousy odds, IMHO, especially when one of the possibilities just
causes the wasted driving time that seems to be desired to avoid.

* Just because you can't make it all the way to Arlington, that doesn't
mean the trip to the airport is wasted. The weather might actually be fine
there, and there's no shame in changing your plan, but still going flying.

All that said, if I should butt out, just say so and I will. You do say
"part of it", which implies there may be other issues at work I don't know
of, shouldn't know of, or whatever. But since you seem to agree with me on
the fundamental issue, I figure I ought to help you with as much
rationalization regarding why to delay the go/no-go decision until Saturday
regardless.

Pete

Heh...Murphy strikes again....

My dad called last night and said that he came home to a garage with
water (all over the floor) coming from the water heater. This was at
8:00 last night. He will work on it tonight, but it's not promising.
I've offered any help with it I can do. The other factor is that my
uncle needs a go-no go decision about 5:30 pm this evening because he
will be driving from the Woodburn (OR) area to KAWO beginning this
evening and travelling part-way tonight, the rest of the way tomorrow if
we don't fly. That does not preclude the wx geting better and us flying
anyway, but it does not help my uncle if we make a decision later.

I called MMV AFSS today and got an outlook for tomorrow...It may be VFR
enough to fly up there in the morning. Coming back later in the day
seems to be looking more promising as the wx is supposed to improve N-S.

Part of me is in the (potentially dangerous) mode that "I want to go and
be there and I want to fly there" becuase I am not going to go if I
don't fly. I also recognize that I need to pay close attention to the
weather going AND coming back very carefully. If it doesn't work out
this year, there will be next year. I just hope my dad gets the water
heater issue resolved and the weather is at least to his minimums for
our trip.

chris




Peter Duniho wrote:
"Chris G." nospam@noemail wrote in message
news.net...

Part of it is that my dad has to drive for just over an hour to meet me at
the plane. I can't fly (that plane) without him (yet). Also, we have one
other person flying with us that morning who has to drive about 20-30 mins
to get to the plane. [...]


"Time to spare, go by air".

I think what I said still holds. A "no-go" decision could still occur as
late as just before takeoff.

Yes, there's wasted time doing things like driving if you don't go, but IMHO
that's just the risk you take with recreational flying. Everyone knows the
"better to be down here wishing you were up there" saying, but I think it's
possible to take that too far. You ought to at least give yourself the best
chance to go, rather than relying on an unreliable forecast to tell you
whether you'll go or not.

Some other silly ideas I have:

* There are four possible outcomes based on a Friday decision: good
forecast, which is correct; bad forecast, which is correct; good forecast,
which is incorrect; bad forecast, which is incorrect. Out of those four
possibilities, if you are determined to make your decision on Friday, then
three of those four possibilities result in you not flying Saturday. Them's
pretty lousy odds, IMHO, especially when one of the possibilities just
causes the wasted driving time that seems to be desired to avoid.

* Just because you can't make it all the way to Arlington, that doesn't
mean the trip to the airport is wasted. The weather might actually be fine
there, and there's no shame in changing your plan, but still going flying.

All that said, if I should butt out, just say so and I will. You do say
"part of it", which implies there may be other issues at work I don't know
of, shouldn't know of, or whatever. But since you seem to agree with me on
the fundamental issue, I figure I ought to help you with as much
rationalization regarding why to delay the go/no-go decision until Saturday
regardless.

Pete

Murphy hates me.... Weather is gonna be total crap this weekend. No
Arlington for me. Just got off the phone for another outlook for
tomorrow and it's looking like MVFR to IFR the whole way up with the
destination being totally IFR (ceilings AND visibilities).

*sigh* Cya'll next year! (Or at the Portland-Hillsboro Airport (KHIO)
for the Rose Festival Air Show in Sept, or KMMV for the fly-in in Aug)

Chris


Chris G. wrote:
Heh...Murphy strikes again....

My dad called last night and said that he came home to a garage with
water (all over the floor) coming from the water heater. This was at
8:00 last night. He will work on it tonight, but it's not promising.
I've offered any help with it I can do. The other factor is that my
uncle needs a go-no go decision about 5:30 pm this evening because he
will be driving from the Woodburn (OR) area to KAWO beginning this
evening and travelling part-way tonight, the rest of the way tomorrow if
we don't fly. That does not preclude the wx geting better and us flying
anyway, but it does not help my uncle if we make a decision later.

I called MMV AFSS today and got an outlook for tomorrow...It may be VFR
enough to fly up there in the morning. Coming back later in the day
seems to be looking more promising as the wx is supposed to improve N-S.

Part of me is in the (potentially dangerous) mode that "I want to go and
be there and I want to fly there" becuase I am not going to go if I
don't fly. I also recognize that I need to pay close attention to the
weather going AND coming back very carefully. If it doesn't work out
this year, there will be next year. I just hope my dad gets the water
heater issue resolved and the weather is at least to his minimums for
our trip.

chris




Peter Duniho wrote:

"Chris G." nospam@noemail wrote in message
news.net...

Part of it is that my dad has to drive for just over an hour to meet
me at the plane. I can't fly (that plane) without him (yet). Also,
we have one other person flying with us that morning who has to drive
about 20-30 mins to get to the plane. [...]



"Time to spare, go by air".

I think what I said still holds. A "no-go" decision could still occur
as late as just before takeoff.

Yes, there's wasted time doing things like driving if you don't go,
but IMHO that's just the risk you take with recreational flying.
Everyone knows the "better to be down here wishing you were up there"
saying, but I think it's possible to take that too far. You ought to
at least give yourself the best chance to go, rather than relying on
an unreliable forecast to tell you whether you'll go or not.

Some other silly ideas I have:

* There are four possible outcomes based on a Friday decision:
good forecast, which is correct; bad forecast, which is correct; good
forecast, which is incorrect; bad forecast, which is incorrect. Out
of those four possibilities, if you are determined to make your
decision on Friday, then three of those four possibilities result in
you not flying Saturday. Them's pretty lousy odds, IMHO, especially
when one of the possibilities just causes the wasted driving time that
seems to be desired to avoid.

* Just because you can't make it all the way to Arlington, that
doesn't mean the trip to the airport is wasted. The weather might
actually be fine there, and there's no shame in changing your plan,
but still going flying.

All that said, if I should butt out, just say so and I will. You
do say "part of it", which implies there may be other issues at work I
don't know of, shouldn't know of, or whatever. But since you seem to
agree with me on the fundamental issue, I figure I ought to help you
with as much rationalization regarding why to delay the go/no-go
decision until Saturday regardless.

Pete

"Chris G." nospam@noemail wrote in message
eenews.net...
Murphy hates me.... Weather is gonna be total crap this weekend.

No, that's a *good* thing. It means all this worrying about when to make
the go/no-go decision was moot.