PHIL BOYER: 40% OF AOPA MEMBERS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING THEIR FLYING DUE TO FUEL PRICES

Gasoline will still ultimately hit $10/gallon if that's what it's going
to do.

You're ignoring the most basic of all market forces: supply and demand.
Supply goes up, prices go down, no matter where things are bought or sold.
It's that simple.

Bingo.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

Now for some people, an SUV makes sense. But not the typical urban
commuter in an office job: they just have the SUV as a fashion
statement. The people who actually *need* them on a frequent basis are a
very small minority.

Absolutely. I am old enough to remember when pickup trucks were driven by
two classes of people:

- Farmers
- Work crews

Then, someone got the notion that they could "Trick their Truck" -- and, of
course, they were cheap -- so now EVERYONE drives a pickup truck, getting 18
mpg. It's stupid.

I drive "The Grape" (our '95 Toyota T100 4x4 pickup) everywhere now, because
my son drives our Subaru, while my wife drives the Mustang. I hate driving
it in the summer, because it gets terrible mileage (it was fantastic this
past winter, with the record snowfall) -- but it sure is handy for us at the
hotel.

We use it like a mobile garage to carry all of our lawn care implements, and
(of course) it's got the 55 gallon transfer tank in the back that we use to
fuel the plane(s) and all the gas-powered tools at the hotel. We also haul
all manner of items, from drywall to plumbing fixtures. We get a lot of use
out of that truck, and there would simply be no substitute for it in our
case.

As you may remember, to avoid spending so much on gasoline, last fall I
tried to buy an electric car. I know probably a dozen people in Iowa City
that would buy one in a heart-beat, and I'm sure there are hundreds more.
No one drives more than ten miles to work here, so it's a good market for
it.

No viable electric vehicle existed then, and none exist today. It's sad,
but apparently the market is unable to respond to the demand.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

Jay Maynard wrote:

You're ignoring the most basic of all market forces: supply and demand.
Supply goes up, prices go down, no matter where things are bought or sold.
It's that simple.

All true. However if demand goes up and supply doesn't keep pace, prices
will go up.

China and India are markets for oil that really didn't matter all that much
10 years go. Now they are using a small but significant percentage of
world production. And at the moment it doesn't look that percentage is going
to get any smaller.

Also what the supply and demand thing igores is the devaluation of currency.
The dollar is weaker than its been in decades. Unfortunately, I'm not
goog enough of economist to really expound on how that effects the cost
of oil.

--
Frank Stutzman
Bonanza N494B "Hula Girl"
Boise, ID

On Thu, 19 Jun 2008 14:10:07 +0000 (UTC), Frank Stutzman
wrote in
:

China and India are markets for oil that really didn't matter all that much
10 years go. Now they are using a small but significant percentage of
world production. And at the moment it doesn't look that percentage is going
to get any smaller.

Below is a quote from comedian Bill Maher's HBO TV series Real Time
that aired March, 31, 2006:

So on this day, the 17th anniversary of the Exxon Valdez oil
spill, let us pause to consider how close we are to making
ourselves fossils from the fossil fuels we extract. In the next
twenty years, almost a billion Chinese people will be trading in
their bicycles for the automobile. Folks, we either get our ****
together on this quickly, or we're going to have to go to plan
'B': inventing a car that runs on Chinese people.

Dylan Smith schrieb:
On 2008-06-18, Jay Honeck wrote:
Not all crude is the same, and the United States is already drilling for
quite a lot of oil. The remaining large oil fields that aren't being
exploited currently are not *cheap* oil, but expensive oil.
At current prices, almost all known oil reserves in the US are viable.

But suppose you exploit every single oil reserve, the oil will *still*
be traded on the global market (because oil companies quite naturally
want to maximise profits). So tear up all environmental regulations,
exploit all the oil - and oil prices will hardly move, since it'll still
all go on the global market and global conditions won't have changed.
Gasoline will still ultimately hit $10/gallon if that's what it's going
to do.

and then you still only move the problem back for some/many years.

Unless, of course, you take the socialist approach of nationalizing your
oil industry and imposing price controls, and force the oil companies to
only sell at these controlled prices into the US market. This is in
effect what you are calling for.

I'd say that the oil companies then won't sell into the US for some time
until the restrictions are lifted.


#m

On 2008-06-19, Jay Maynard wrote:
You're ignoring the most basic of all market forces: supply and demand.
Supply goes up, prices go down, no matter where things are bought or sold.
It's that simple.

No I'm not; if you exploited all the possible US resources (many of
which are expensive oil) it wouldn't make a large enough impact on
_global_ prices because it would only be a relatively small increase in
_global_ supply, since that's where the oil will be traded. It won't
make the US awash with oil, it'll just add a little bit to _global_
supply. While it would help the trade deficit, it's not going to bring
back the days of $15/bbl oil and $1.25/gal gasoline.

--
From the sunny Isle of Man.
Yes, the Reply-To email address is valid.

On 2008-06-19, Jay Maynard wrote:
Yes, and? In our system, nobody is entitled to an opinion on whether someone
else needs something.

Yes, they are actually - it's the cornerstone of western democracy,
'free speech'. What they are not entitled to is that opinion being
listened to or heeded.

--
From the sunny Isle of Man.
Yes, the Reply-To email address is valid.

On 2008-06-19, Dylan Smith wrote:
On 2008-06-19, Jay Maynard wrote:
You're ignoring the most basic of all market forces: supply and demand.
Supply goes up, prices go down, no matter where things are bought or sold.
It's that simple.
No I'm not; if you exploited all the possible US resources (many of
which are expensive oil) it wouldn't make a large enough impact on
_global_ prices because it would only be a relatively small increase in
_global_ supply, since that's where the oil will be traded. It won't
make the US awash with oil, it'll just add a little bit to _global_
supply. While it would help the trade deficit, it's not going to bring
back the days of $15/bbl oil and $1.25/gal gasoline.

No, it won't. OTOH, it took a relitively small disruption to send oil from
$85 to $130; it won't take that much of a supply increase to send it back
down.

The answer to high oil prices is to develop our oil reserves and join the
market, not to chase pie in the sky stuff that won't bear fruit for decades.
No, I'm not saying we should avoid developing other forms of energy, but we
cannot just ignore current needs while doing so.
--
Jay Maynard, K5ZC http://www.conmicro.com
http://jmaynard.livejournal.com http://www.tronguy.net
Fairmont, MN (FRM) (Yes, that's me!)
AMD Zodiac CH601XLi N55ZC (got it!)

Larry Dighera wrote:

Below is a quote from comedian Bill Maher's HBO TV series Real Time
that aired March, 31, 2006:

So on this day, the 17th anniversary of the Exxon Valdez oil
spill, let us pause to consider how close we are to making
ourselves fossils from the fossil fuels we extract. In the next
twenty years, almost a billion Chinese people will be trading in
their bicycles for the automobile. Folks, we either get our ****
together on this quickly, or we're going to have to go to plan
'B': inventing a car that runs on Chinese people.

All you ever do is paste quotes from other sources... are even capable
of any original or creative thoughts of you own?

Dylan Smith wrote:

No I'm not; if you exploited all the possible US resources (many of
which are expensive oil) it wouldn't make a large enough impact on
_global_ prices because it would only be a relatively small increase in
_global_ supply, since that's where the oil will be traded. It won't
make the US awash with oil, it'll just add a little bit to _global_
supply. While it would help the trade deficit, it's not going to bring
back the days of $15/bbl oil and $1.25/gal gasoline.


Dylan you can't be that dense can you? Regardless of the the costs
(assuming all oil is 'expensive oil', as you like to say), what is
more obnoxious... sending massive amounts of US capital to foreign
oil suppoliers or keeping it here in the US... employing American
workers in American jobs in American companies?

Sheesh, use you brain son.