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#1
July 4th 04, 06:58 PM
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A good 12 hour soaring forecast goes bad
Good weather on the 12 hour forecast became bad weather on the 9 hour
forecast. Even worse in the cockpit. See the forecast maps. http://www.geocities.com/jgere34/12hrforecast.doc (167kB) It's enough to make me wish for validation statistics on soaring forecasts of various durations. 
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#2
July 4th 04, 09:41 PM
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Perhaps I can help. After 17 years chasing the wind
Hang Gliding and 5 years soaring I have identified one absolute rule in weather forecasting. I don't know why it works but trust me it does. 'ONLY THE BAD FORECASTS ARE ALWAYS RIGHT' At 18:12 04 July 2004, Jonathan Gere wrote: Good weather on the 12 hour forecast became bad weather on the 9 hour forecast. Even worse in the cockpit. See the forecast maps. http://www.geocities.com/jgere34/12hrforecast.doc (167kB) It's enough to make me wish for validation statistics on soaring forecasts of various durations.
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#3
July 6th 04, 03:46 AM
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Jonathan Gere wrote:
Good weather on the 12 hour forecast became bad weather on the 9 hour forecast. Even worse in the cockpit. See the forecast maps. http://www.geocities.com/jgere34/12hrforecast.doc (167kB) It's enough to make me wish for validation statistics on soaring forecasts of various durations. How did you generate this forecast? -- Change "netto" to "net" to email me directly Eric Greenwell Washington State USA
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#4
July 7th 04, 01:19 AM
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Eric Greenwell wrote in message ...
How did you generate this forecast? How to (US coverage only): http://www.geocities.com/jgere34/rea...gforecast.html Jonathan Gere ASW-20C 34
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#5
July 8th 04, 09:49 PM
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FANTASTIC.
Now... If I only knew what I was looking at??? :-) Jonathan Gere wrote: Eric Greenwell wrote in message ... How did you generate this forecast? How to (US coverage only): http://www.geocities.com/jgere34/rea...gforecast.html Jonathan Gere ASW-20C 34
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#6
July 11th 04, 01:21 AM
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"Jonathan Gere" wrote in message om... | Good weather on the 12 hour forecast became bad weather on the 9 hour | forecast. Even worse in the cockpit. See the forecast maps. | | http://www.geocities.com/jgere34/12hrforecast.doc (167kB) | | It's enough to make me wish for validation statistics on soaring | forecasts of various durations. The 12 HR forecast did not have the benefit of fresh upper air data, as did the 9 HR. Your best bet is to stick with forecast output from model runs based on 00z and 12z data. -- TQ Bush & Dick - The Way God Intended - - - Elect Bush/Cheney '04 - - - Steady Leadership, Fear, and Loathing
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