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#1
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Cirrus and Lancair Make Bonanza Obsolete?
Why is the market for late model V35B's and F33A's so flat. The
economic climate (real and perceived) and 90's run-up have a lot to do with it, I'll acknowledge that. But there seems to be something else at work in this market. Are the Lancair Columbia and Cirrus SR22 substitute products for the 4-place Bonanzas? (For the sake of this post V35B's and F33A's are 4 place not 6 place airplanes. Keep it real.) To be honest, if I had 300K + in my budget I would probably evaluate the Columbia and SR22 first before considering a Bonanza. After all, they're faster with fixed gear, won't corrode, have modern avionics and are 30 years newer than the Bonanzas I'm considering. It looks as if the once assumed appreciation rate for Bonanzas is in for a big change. Agree? Thoughts? |
#2
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"Potential Bo Buyer" wrote:
Why is the market for late model V35B's and F33A's so flat. The market for practically everything is flat except for light twins, where the market is well below "flat." Are the Lancair Columbia and Cirrus SR22 substitute products for the 4-place Bonanzas? Yes, IMO. After all, they're faster with fixed gear, won't corrode, have modern avionics and are 30 years newer than the Bonanzas I'm considering. Yeah, but they cost quite a bit more, so you're comparing apples to oranges. It looks as if the once assumed appreciation rate for Bonanzas is in for a big change. Agree? For the newer A36s, yes. Same thing for newer Mooneys. I predict neither of these aircraft will still be in production five years from now. -- Dan C172RG at BFM |
#3
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What you saying may have some slight effect, but it is minor compared to the
general price trends of all aircraft and complex retracts specifically. Very seldom does the appearance of a new airplane have much affect on the value of used airplanes. And others have said, I don't see someone with a budget of $150K for a 170K IFR bird cross-shopping late-model F33As/V35Bs with a new $300K airplane. And I think may pilots, truth be told, want a retract even if there are fixed-gear airplanes of similar performance. Light twins can seldom be practically justified over a heavy single, but many folks just get more pleasure out of flying a twin. Finally, a Bonanza is a much more rugged/substantial airplane, a much better rough field airplane, has a much bigger baggage area, is bigger/heavier and arguably more comfortable, and is a better airplane for situations where you can't hangar - I'd consider hangaring an absolute requirement for a composite airplane. I'll admit I'm prejudice, but I just don't see 25-year-old SR22s holding up like 25-year-old Bonanzas have. That's not to say that SR22s and Columbia's don't have their advantages. They're fast, sleek, quiet, probably safer, and have absolutely gorgeous panels. If I had $300K to spend, I'll look at them very seriously. - Mark |
#4
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"markjen" wrote:
Finally, a Bonanza is a much more rugged/substantial airplane, Says who? -- Dan C172RG at BFM |
#5
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a Bonanza is .... arguably more comfortable
says who ? |
#6
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a Bonanza is .... arguably more comfortable
says who ? Says me. We're just expressing opinions here. - Mark |
#7
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"Potential Bo Buyer" wrote in message om... Are the Lancair Columbia and Cirrus SR22 substitute products for the 4-place Bonanzas? Yes, in the same sense that Honda Hybrids are replacements for the Accord. (For the sake of this post V35B's and F33A's are 4 place not 6 place airplanes. Keep it real.) To be honest, if I had 300K + in my budget I would probably evaluate the Columbia and SR22 first before considering a Bonanza. After all, they're faster with fixed gear, won't corrode, have modern avionics and are 30 years newer than the Bonanzas I'm considering. And a lot more expensive. Also, check the accident reports for Cirrus compared to the F33A. It looks as if the once assumed appreciation rate for Bonanzas is in for a big change. Agree? Thoughts? Bonanza's, being a proven product (in contrast with Cirrus and Lancair) will be around after many of us are dead and gone. Right now I'm this "........." close to buying a 1992 F33A and adding a Tornado Alley Whirlwind to it. The cost will be about $255K, barely enough to touch a Lanc or Cirrus. The accident reports, particularly Cirrus, keep me at bay. http://www.ntsb.gov/ntsb/query.asp |
#8
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"Potential Bo Buyer" wrote in message om... [...] It looks as if the once assumed appreciation rate for Bonanzas is in for a big change. Agree? Thoughts? Dunno, but a friend just returning from the AOPA fly-in said customers were lined up there buying Cirrus SR22's. He said they were selling like hotcakes. |
#9
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The accident reports are pretty interesting.
There were five fatal flights: 1 - Flew into powerlines 3 - Flew into terrain 1 - spin w/out parachute deployment Only the spin accident has a final report, which basically says the pane entered a spin and the parachute was not deployed. No comment on whether the parachute was tried. In a non-fatal accident a month earlier the parachute deployment was attempted and failed. There is not enough data or info here to draw any real conclusion, but some speculation... On one hand, unless there was a control failure, the flights into terrain and powerlines appear to be pilot error. On the other hand, this many CFIT accidents in such a short time in such a small population of planes does cause some concern. Is the plane difficult to handle? Is it so "slippery" that pilots are losing control? Is it being flown by pilots that can't handle the performance - the stereotypical "doctor-killer" story? Michael "Tom S." wrote in message ... The accident reports, particularly Cirrus, keep me at bay. http://www.ntsb.gov/ntsb/query.asp |
#10
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There is insufficient time-in-service to really be able to say much about
Cirrus accident rates. The Concorde went from having the best airliner accident rate to the worst with one accident. That's the problem with new airplanes - insuffiicent experience with the fleet. My gut is that they'll be better than a Bonanza over time because it's a newer design and because the fleet will be much younger - there are an awful lot of Bonanzas flying around with lots of hours, lots of owners, lots of mods, and lots of mechanics who have worked on them. That being said, the Bonanza is a very proven design with excellent type-specific training available through ABS. The only reason I might select a Cirrus over a Bonanza for safety reasons is if I were flying a lot of IFR - some of the available panels and autopilots in the Cirrus are really nice and there is better backup and redundancy. A new/modern electrical system is also a safety plus for IFR flight. And everything else being equal, fixed gears are also safer airplanes in clouds. In non-professional service, the weakest link in single-pilot IFR is the pilot and anything that reduces workload and covers for errors is a safety plus. - Mark |
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