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Soaring Contest and Coronavirus



 
 
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  #1  
Old April 17th 20, 07:06 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Boise Pilot
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Default Soaring Contest and Coronavirus

Question: The Seniors contest was held in FL a few weeks ago employing rules to reduce group gatherings and attempts to maintain social distancing. Just for informational purposes, has there been any reports of any of the contestants, crews, organizational people, volunteers, etc., being tested positive or having any health issues associated with the corona virus during of after the contest?
Boise Pilot
  #2  
Old April 17th 20, 09:20 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Tony[_5_]
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Default Soaring Contest and Coronavirus

Jim Lee came down with presumed case on his drive home, per report from his wife.
  #3  
Old April 17th 20, 11:22 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Bob Youngblood
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Default Soaring Contest and Coronavirus

On Friday, April 17, 2020 at 4:20:09 PM UTC-4, Tony wrote:
Jim Lee came down with presumed case on his drive home, per report from his wife.


From my understanding this case finally turned out to be positive, please correct me if I am wrong. The test has a 50% capacity of being wrong positive and negative.
  #4  
Old April 17th 20, 11:44 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Eric Greenwell[_4_]
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Default Soaring Contest and Coronavirus

Bob Youngblood wrote on 4/17/2020 3:22 PM:
On Friday, April 17, 2020 at 4:20:09 PM UTC-4, Tony wrote:
Jim Lee came down with presumed case on his drive home, per report from his wife.


From my understanding this case finally turned out to be positive, please correct me if I am wrong. The test has a 50% capacity of being wrong positive and negative.

A test that is wrong 50% of the time can be replaced with a coin toss.

--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1
  #5  
Old April 17th 20, 11:54 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
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Default Soaring Contest and Coronavirus



A test that is wrong 50% of the time can be replaced with a coin toss.

Right, and one that is 90% wrong for a yes/no question is highly valued.
  #6  
Old April 18th 20, 01:44 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Shaun Wheeler
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Default Soaring Contest and Coronavirus

On Friday, April 17, 2020 at 5:44:58 PM UTC-5, Eric Greenwell wrote:
Bob Youngblood wrote on 4/17/2020 3:22 PM:
On Friday, April 17, 2020 at 4:20:09 PM UTC-4, Tony wrote:
Jim Lee came down with presumed case on his drive home, per report from his wife.


From my understanding this case finally turned out to be positive, please correct me if I am wrong. The test has a 50% capacity of being wrong positive and negative.

A test that is wrong 50% of the time can be replaced with a coin toss.

--



Tea leaves would work.

They sued Sister Cleo for having a batting average less than that and put her out of business.


  #7  
Old April 18th 20, 04:22 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
John Cochrane[_3_]
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Default Soaring Contest and Coronavirus


A test that is wrong 50% of the time can be replaced with a coin toss.


Not true actually, a test with a 50% chance of being wrong can be quite useful.

Suppose 2% of the population has the disease. Take a test that has 100% chance of positive if you do have it, and 50% chance of positive if you don't have it. It tells the 2 people who do have it they have it, and it tells one other healthy person he has it too. Three people stay home, 97 go soaring in perfect safety.

Take a test that has 100% chance of negative if you don't have it, but 50% chance of positive if you do have it. 98 people are correctly cleared, 1 person is incorrectly cleared, 1 stays home. Well, we got half the sick people out of the population and reduced the reproduction rate by half.

John Cochrane.
  #8  
Old April 18th 20, 05:03 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Eric Greenwell[_4_]
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Default Soaring Contest and Coronavirus

John Cochrane wrote on 4/17/2020 8:22 PM:

A test that is wrong 50% of the time can be replaced with a coin toss.


Not true actually, a test with a 50% chance of being wrong can be quite useful.

Suppose 2% of the population has the disease. Take a test that has 100% chance of positive if you do have it, and 50% chance of positive if you don't have it. It tells the 2 people who do have it they have it, and it tells one other healthy person he has it too. Three people stay home, 97 go soaring in perfect safety.

Take a test that has 100% chance of negative if you don't have it, but 50% chance of positive if you do have it. 98 people are correctly cleared, 1 person is incorrectly cleared, 1 stays home. Well, we got half the sick people out of the population and reduced the reproduction rate by half.

John Cochrane.


Bob's description of the test seem to indicate it was wrong 50% of the time for
positive people, and wrong 50% of the time for negative people, so your results
would always be 50% positive, regardless of the actual percentage of positive people.

--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1
  #9  
Old April 18th 20, 05:07 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
2G
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Default Soaring Contest and Coronavirus

On Friday, April 17, 2020 at 11:06:57 AM UTC-7, Boise Pilot wrote:
Question: The Seniors contest was held in FL a few weeks ago employing rules to reduce group gatherings and attempts to maintain social distancing. Just for informational purposes, has there been any reports of any of the contestants, crews, organizational people, volunteers, etc., being tested positive or having any health issues associated with the corona virus during of after the contest?
Boise Pilot


A more relevant question is would they have held the contest knowing what we know now? My guess is no.

Tom
  #10  
Old April 18th 20, 10:05 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Bob Youngblood
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Posts: 390
Default Soaring Contest and Coronavirus

On Saturday, April 18, 2020 at 12:07:59 AM UTC-4, 2G wrote:
On Friday, April 17, 2020 at 11:06:57 AM UTC-7, Boise Pilot wrote:
Question: The Seniors contest was held in FL a few weeks ago employing rules to reduce group gatherings and attempts to maintain social distancing.. Just for informational purposes, has there been any reports of any of the contestants, crews, organizational people, volunteers, etc., being tested positive or having any health issues associated with the corona virus during of after the contest?
Boise Pilot


A more relevant question is would they have held the contest knowing what we know now? My guess is no.

Tom


Good question, I certainly think that Rich would have been the first one to pull the trigger and say Safety and protection of each other comes first. Organizers at other events have since halted contest or limited participation. Limiting may be the future of things to come.
 




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