PHIL BOYER: 40% OF AOPA MEMBERS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING THEIR FLYING DUE TO FUEL PRICES

On Sun, 22 Jun 2008 08:51:35 -0500, "Steven P. McNicoll"
wrote in
:

Speculators are driving up the price of oil by betting that demand
in the future will be high and supply will be low. If something
happened that would affect future supply or demand they would
revise their bets.

Not if the "something" that happened reduced world oil supplies, like
an Israeli attack on Iran, or Persian Gulf blockade, or ..., the
speculators would only press their bets higher.

I can't conceive of an event, short of government intervention, that
will cause oil speculators to reverse their bets other than a
worldwide plague or natural catastrophe massive enough to kill a
significant number of consumers. Perhaps you are able to provide a
few examples.

"Something" is happening now, but it's effect on the price of oil will
take some time to manifest itself in a meaningful way, if ever. And
it will continue to happen from now on if there is no significant
decline in oil prices. People are filling the seats of their
automobiles for their work commutes, leaving their cars home and
taking their bicycles (There's little question we can use the
exercise.) or motor-scooters instead. They are trading in their
vehicles that have poor fuel economy for higher MPG autos. And lo and
behold they are beginning to use rapid transit (up 20%). The American
people's days of toting 3,000 pounds of steel along with them on the
way to work or the grocery store are on their way out, probably for
good. Now that weight is being divided by more passengers, or being
left in the garage. And air carriers are cutting the number of
flights they offer, and AOPA tells us light GA flights are down 40%.
The golden age of the gasoline fueled automobile and cheap seats for
international tourists and business people are behind us (Air carriers
are beginning to demand minimum three days stay for coach pax.). Times
are indeed changin'.

With the currently devalued dollar resulting from Bush's massive
deficit war spending and artificially lowering interest rates in a
desperate attempt to keep our nation's economy afloat, I don't expect
to see the past level of prosperity achieved by the common man to
return for a good long time, if ever. It's going to be nothing but
price inflation until some sort of equilibrium is attained. Our
nation will have to turn from consuming imported goods and return to
exporting US made products, or it will drown in red ink.

Unregulated free trade, and poorly regulated investment markets enable
scoundrels to swindle the public. Privatization of governmental
functions provides corporations with monopolies. Ours is a nation of
the people, not of heartless corporate entities, and we the people
need to take back our rightful power to direct our nation's course and
policies. ...
--

"I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the
greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest and most
obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity
of conclusions which they delighted in explaining to colleagues, which
they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread
by thread, into the fabric of their lives." - Tolstoy

Larry Dighera wrote:
On Sun, 22 Jun 2008 08:51:35 -0500, "Steven P. McNicoll"
wrote in
:

Speculators are driving up the price of oil by betting that demand
in the future will be high and supply will be low. If something
happened that would affect future supply or demand they would
revise their bets.

Not if the "something" that happened reduced world oil supplies, like
an Israeli attack on Iran, or Persian Gulf blockade, or ..., the
speculators would only press their bets higher.

Which if you read what was posted is exactly what he said.

I can't conceive of an event, short of government intervention, that
will cause oil speculators to reverse their bets other than a
worldwide plague or natural catastrophe massive enough to kill a
significant number of consumers. Perhaps you are able to provide a
few examples.

Discovery of a large new field.

Oil sands and tar recovery plants break ground big time.

OPEC simply increases production.


--
Jim Pennino

Remove .spam.sux to reply.

On Sun, 22 Jun 2008 10:44:08 -0500, "Steven P. McNicoll"
wrote in
:


You should have understood it before posting.

What do you believe he misunderstood?

On Sun, 22 Jun 2008 16:25:02 GMT, wrote in
:

Larry Dighera wrote:
On Sun, 22 Jun 2008 08:51:35 -0500, "Steven P. McNicoll"
wrote in
:

Speculators are driving up the price of oil by betting that demand
in the future will be high and supply will be low. If something
happened that would affect future supply or demand they would
revise their bets.

Not if the "something" that happened reduced world oil supplies, like
an Israeli attack on Iran, or Persian Gulf blockade, or ..., the
speculators would only press their bets higher.

Which if you read what was posted is exactly what he said.


I can't believe I'm being so obtuse as to have misunderstood his
meaning. Perhaps you can spell it out clearer for me.

I can't conceive of an event, short of government intervention, that
will cause oil speculators to reverse their bets other than a
worldwide plague or natural catastrophe massive enough to kill a
significant number of consumers. Perhaps you are able to provide a
few examples.

Discovery of a large new field.


Such wouldn't come on-line for a decade, so it wouldn't have much of
an impact on oil prices. Given the likelihood that the country who
claimed such a fiend would become part of OPEC anyway, I don't see
that having any significant effect.

Oil sands and tar recovery plants break ground big time.


How long will it take for them to produce a significant amount of
petroleum? Speculators work in a short-term time frame, on the order
of a year maximum, not decades.

OPEC simply increases production.

I seriously doubt that they are able to significantly increase
production to keep up with ever increasing demand let alone reduce
speculation. The real question is where will the increased refining
capacity come from. Increases in production aren't very meaningful
without that.


It is significantly more probable production will be reduced by world
events than increased.

schrieb:

OPEC simply increases production.

what are your guesses? double production cuts prices in half?

let's assume (for the sake of calculation) that world oil supplies last
right now for 200 years (500?). If you double production then this will
also be cut in half to 100 years (250, then) remaining. and then?

#m

Larry Dighera wrote:
On Sun, 22 Jun 2008 16:25:02 GMT, wrote in
:

Larry Dighera wrote:
On Sun, 22 Jun 2008 08:51:35 -0500, "Steven P. McNicoll"
wrote in
:

Speculators are driving up the price of oil by betting that demand
in the future will be high and supply will be low. If something
happened that would affect future supply or demand they would
revise their bets.

Not if the "something" that happened reduced world oil supplies, like
an Israeli attack on Iran, or Persian Gulf blockade, or ..., the
speculators would only press their bets higher.

Which if you read what was posted is exactly what he said.


I can't believe I'm being so obtuse as to have misunderstood his
meaning. Perhaps you can spell it out clearer for me.

What he said was:

"Speculators are driving up the price of oil by betting that demand
in the future will be high and supply will be low. If something
happened that would affect future supply or demand they would
revise their bets."

What part of "If something happened that would affect future supply
or demand they would revise their bets." are you having a problem
understanding?

Obviously speculators are going to "revise their bets" in a direction
determined by the preceived direction of "future supply or demand".

And while demand is unlikely to decrease, supply could easily increase.

I can't conceive of an event, short of government intervention, that
will cause oil speculators to reverse their bets other than a
worldwide plague or natural catastrophe massive enough to kill a
significant number of consumers. Perhaps you are able to provide a
few examples.

Discovery of a large new field.


Such wouldn't come on-line for a decade, so it wouldn't have much of
an impact on oil prices. Given the likelihood that the country who
claimed such a fiend would become part of OPEC anyway, I don't see
that having any significant effect.

Irrelevant to futures prices which are based on perception.

One, lousy, insignificant tanker gets sunk and the price of oil jumps.

And, yeah, anything new will take a while to have an effect, but that's
irrelevant to the basic premise; new supplies will cause oil prices
to drop.

snip

OPEC simply increases production.

I seriously doubt that they are able to significantly increase
production to keep up with ever increasing demand let alone reduce
speculation. The real question is where will the increased refining
capacity come from. Increases in production aren't very meaningful
without that.

Part of OPEC DID just increase production, so you are obviously wrong
about that.

OPEC is nothing more than a gentlemen's agreement and any member can
do whatever they feel meets their own interests at any time.

Were OPEC a company within a nation, the entire company would be
jailed for price fixing.

Refining has nothing to do with oil production or the cost of oil.

While the US could probably use a couple more refineries, the cost of
the end product has little to do with refining capacity unless a
significant part of the existing capacity goes off line for some
reason.

--
Jim Pennino

Remove .spam.sux to reply.

Martin Hotze wrote:
schrieb:

OPEC simply increases production.

what are your guesses? double production cuts prices in half?

The price of a product and the supply are not related in a linear
fashion.

The price of a product is whatever people are willing to pay for it.

Last I heard, the production cost of a barrel of crude in the belly
of a tanker in the Gulf was around $1, though it is probably more
like $5 now.

let's assume (for the sake of calculation) that world oil supplies last
right now for 200 years (500?). If you double production then this will
also be cut in half to 100 years (250, then) remaining. and then?

The total quantity of the world's oil supplies and how long they will
last has nothing to do with the current price.

--
Jim Pennino

Remove .spam.sux to reply.

schrieb:
Martin Hotze wrote:
schrieb:

OPEC simply increases production.

what are your guesses? double production cuts prices in half?

The price of a product and the supply are not related in a linear
fashion.

I know.

The price of a product is whatever people are willing to pay for it.

I know. And your assumption that a higher production will lower the
price is not a given fact. Demand rises, so you have to produce more
than requested.

let's assume (for the sake of calculation) that world oil supplies last
right now for 200 years (500?). If you double production then this will
also be cut in half to 100 years (250, then) remaining. and then?

The total quantity of the world's oil supplies and how long they will
last has nothing to do with the current price.

I know. Still: lower fuel prices won't help you solve this problem - au
contraire.

#m

On Jun 22, 12:05*pm, Larry Dighera wrote:
On Sun, 22 Jun 2008 08:51:35 -0500, "Steven P. McNicoll"
wrote in
:

Speculators are driving up the price of oil by betting that demand
in the future will be high and supply will be low. *If something
happened that would affect future supply or demand they would
revise their bets.

Not if the "something" that happened reduced world oil supplies, like
an Israeli attack on Iran, or Persian Gulf blockade, or ..., the
speculators would only press their bets higher. *

I can't conceive of an event, short of government intervention, that
will cause oil speculators to reverse their bets other than a
worldwide plague or natural catastrophe massive enough to kill a
significant number of consumers. *Perhaps you are able to provide a
few examples.

"Something" is happening now, but it's effect on the price of oil will
take some time to manifest itself in a meaningful way, if ever. *And
it will continue to happen from now on if there is no significant
decline in oil prices. *People are filling the seats of their
automobiles for their work commutes, leaving their cars home and
taking their bicycles (There's little question we can use the
exercise.) or motor-scooters instead. *They are trading in their
vehicles that have poor fuel economy for higher MPG autos. *And lo and
behold they are beginning to use rapid transit (up 20%). *The American
people's days of toting 3,000 pounds of steel along with them on the
way to work or the grocery store are on their way out, probably for
good. *Now that weight is being divided by more passengers, or being
left in the garage. *And air carriers are cutting the number of
flights they offer, and AOPA tells us light GA flights are down 40%.
The golden age of the gasoline fueled automobile and cheap seats for
international tourists and business people are behind us (Air carriers
are beginning to demand minimum three days stay for coach pax.). Times
are indeed changin'. *

With the currently devalued dollar resulting from Bush's massive
deficit war spending and artificially lowering interest rates in a
desperate attempt to keep our nation's economy afloat, I don't expect
to see the past level of prosperity achieved by the common man to
return for a good long time, if ever. *It's going to be nothing but
price inflation until some sort of equilibrium is attained. *Our
nation will have to turn from consuming imported goods and return to
exporting US made products, or it will drown in red ink. *

Unregulated free trade, and poorly regulated investment markets enable
scoundrels to swindle the public. *Privatization of governmental
functions provides corporations with monopolies. *Ours is a nation of
the people, not of heartless corporate entities, and we the people
need to take back our rightful power to direct our nation's course and
policies. *...
--

"I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the
greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest and most
obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity
of conclusions which they delighted in explaining to colleagues, which
they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread
by thread, into the fabric of their lives." *- Tolstoy

Just damn. Does this mean that you will sell/abandon your fuel
guzzling airplane, and take the bus instead? The irony of private
pleasure pilots bemoaning high avgas prices while simultaneously
attacking Bush/Cheney as whackos who would take steps to increase
crude supply is fantastic!

On Jun 22, 12:41*pm, Larry Dighera wrote:
On Sun, 22 Jun 2008 16:25:02 GMT, wrote in
:





Larry Dighera wrote:
On Sun, 22 Jun 2008 08:51:35 -0500, "Steven P. McNicoll"
wrote in
:

Speculators are driving up the price of oil by betting that demand
in the future will be high and supply will be low. *If something
happened that would affect future supply or demand they would
revise their bets.

Not if the "something" that happened reduced world oil supplies, like
an Israeli attack on Iran, or Persian Gulf blockade, or ..., the
speculators would only press their bets higher. *

Which if you read what was posted is exactly what he said.

I can't believe I'm being so obtuse as to have misunderstood his
meaning. *Perhaps you can spell it out clearer for me.

I can't conceive of an event, short of government intervention, that
will cause oil speculators to reverse their bets other than a
worldwide plague or natural catastrophe massive enough to kill a
significant number of consumers. *Perhaps you are able to provide a
few examples.

Discovery of a large new field.

Such wouldn't come on-line for a decade, so it wouldn't have much of
an impact on oil prices. *Given the likelihood that the country who
claimed such a fiend would become part of OPEC anyway, I don't see
that having any significant effect.

Oil sands and tar recovery plants break ground big time.

How long will it take for them to produce a significant amount of
petroleum? *Speculators work in a short-term time frame, on the order
of a year maximum, not decades.

OPEC simply increases production.

I seriously doubt that they are able to significantly increase
production to keep up with ever increasing demand let alone reduce
speculation. *The real question is where will the increased refining
capacity come from. *Increases in production aren't very meaningful
without that.

It is significantly more probable production will be reduced by world
events than increased. *- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Given your prior comment (unsupported) that commodities speculation
has contributed to the price spike (correct), any indication of
significant future crude supply would have a beneficial effect in the
near term would be a logical conclusion. But, that would not allow
for the requisite Bush bashing.