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Civilian Space Flights
At the risk of sounding like a curmudgeon (which I probably am), I
need to ask this question: What is the big deal about Rutan's suborbital flight? Why is this such a history-making achievement? The regulars on this newsgroup might recognize me from earlier posts as a former USAF and contractor test pilot. No one appreciates the significance (and joy) of doing something in aviation that hasn't been done before more than I do. That said, and given that the flight was a piece of technical brilliance and a demonstration of courage by Mr. Melville, what was the historic value? It proved that private industry could put a man into space. The hype is that this heralds the impending commercial use of space, and of commercial space exploration. Let's put that into perspective. First, I contend that nearly all the important explorations on earth were financed by governments. Columbus' voyage (Queen of Spain) and Lewis and Clark (US Government) come to mind, never mind the space program. There doesn't seem to be anything intrinsically bad about that. By and large, explorations and experiments that are designed to help all mankind require more money than the commercial world can afford. And don't necessarily generate a profit for anyone. Second, sending a man and two dummies into a very short suborbital trajectory is nowhere near the problem of orbiting people and their life support systems for extended periods. Which is what commercial space use will require. Reentry from orbit, for example, isn't even a factor in the present programs. Third. who will finance such things? Right now, we have, if I read the news correctly, a $20 million investment to win a $10 million prize. Not a great return. I contend that American businesses, being reasonable, will not invest money without a reasonable expectation of a profit somewhere down the line. What is the income from a three-person ballistic trajectory? There are only so many people who will pay several thousand dollars for such a thrill. I would like nothing better than to see this space achievement lead to bigger and better things. Without government money, I just don't see it happening. Jim Thomas |
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