Avgas price and the light plane ownership

Matt Barrow wrote:

"xyzzy" wrote in message
...

Matt Barrow wrote:


"xyzzy" wrote in message
...


George Patterson wrote:


Charles Oppermann wrote:



The cost of insuring an aircraft has skyrocketed at a rate greater
than fuel costs.


Really? That wasn't the case when I owned my Maule. The premium was
something like $1,700 the first year (1995-96), but it came down to
around $1,300 the last few years. IIRC, the quote I got last February
was less than that.


Seeing as the accident rate has declined dramatically over the past

several

years, that fits.



Please don't get in the way of Barrow's ideologically-driven complaining
about trial lawyers through the proxy of imagined increases in insurance
costs.


Do you recall the 1994 act that brought back the aviation industry from
deaths door?

Do you recall WHAT it did?

Do you comprehend that engineering is not OMNISCIENT? Do you also recall
that only a handful of suits had anything to do with real negligence?

Your post demonstrates a real negligence of harebrained ideology...that

of

making excuses most people wouldn't accept from a ten year-old.

GFY.

GFY? You're pretty mature. It's really cute when someone uses that
phrase right after comparing someone else to a 10 year old.


It fits.

Now, try addressing your stupid remarks instead of trying to deflect
attention from your onw stupidity.


Capping liablity for plane manufacturers does nothing to hold down the
cost of insurance for owners and pilots.


Didn't say it did. If you would bother to read what I'd said it was:

Patterson: Really? That wasn't the case when I owned my Maule. The premium
was
something like $1,700 the first year (1995-96), but it came down to
around $1,300 the last few years. IIRC, the quote I got last February
was less than that.

Barrow: Seeing as the accident rate has declined dramatically over the past
several
years, that fits.

For your stunted brain, that means that the accident safety record has led
to lower insurance rates.


As a matter of fact one could
assume it would make that insurance go up, since people who can longer
sue the manufacturers will have to try harder to get it from the owners
and pilots. But our insurance hasn't gone up, despite all those eeevil
trial lawyers.


You can't comprehend the difference between PILOT'S insurance rates, and
MANUFACTURERS insurance rates?

Suits agains PILOTS are for accidents of negligence, MANUFACTURERS suits are
for product defects, even ones that have been flying just fine for 40 or 50
years. MANUFACTURERS also have much deeper pockets than 99% of most pilots.


The fact that you are missing or ignoring is that when it comes to
affecting the price of insurance, lawsuits and legal settlements badly
trail the investment returns that insurance companies get in influence.


You are missing the point of lawsuits: PILOTS versus MANUFACTURERS.

Oh, and my insurance premiums have stay stable now for six years as I moved
from a T210, to a Beech 56, and now to a Beech 36. They have gone up $50
since 2000.


So GAFC before you try to cast aspersions. Then learn the basic language and
basic law.

Then GTFU.

Despite the screaming immaturity of your name-calling and "go ****
yourself" responses (I wonder if you run your business that way, I
assume not since you seem to be successful at it), I reviewed the thread
and realized I had misattributed, it was Charles Opperman who made the
assertion I was attributing to you and refuting, so for that error I
apologize. I don't know what GAFC stands for but I assume it's
something just as mature as GFY and its variants.

for the rest of it, while the accident rate is down the cost of repairs
from accidents is up. However all of that pales in comparison to
insurers' investment returns and the amount of competition (or lack of
it) in an insurance market in determining what rates are.

On Fri, 01 Jul 2005 13:37:32 -0700, M wrote:


Anyone worries about what the rising avgas price to the light plane
ownership in the U.S? I have absolutely no doubt that the average
avgas price will surpass $5/gallon in about 5 years. We'll probably
see a significant drop of GA flying, along with a big drop of the value
of used airplanes. It's really depressing just to think about it.

I wouldn't worry about it too much. Most people don't realize some simple
facts about oil and fuel costs.

One, the price we pay per barrel has zero to do with its availability. The
price we pay is basically a speculative futures price based on
estimates of what the market will bare. Fact is, oil companies around the
world are making record profits.

Two, there is now more known oil in the world than there has ever been in
the history of mankind. The only thing that changes is where it's at, how
cost effective it is to obtain it, and what quality the oil is. With the
prices as high as they are now, VAST supplies of oil suddenly become
economically feasible.

Three, as the price per barrel sits above $50/barrel, especially above
$60/barrel, MANY, MANY, MANY alternative fuel options become economically
feasible. Heck, if they would lift the ban on hemp (which is not pot) in
the US, ethanol can actually become a viable fuel source without
government support; as is the case for corn-ethanol production, which at
best, is at a break even form an energy perspective. Meaning, it takes
about as much energy to produce ethanol from corn as we get back out of
it. As a rule of thumb, it actually takes more energy to make
corn-based ethanol than we get out of it. Hemp is known to provide up to
3x better yeild, per year, than corn and requires no pesticides (unlike
corn). Other alternatives include pure bio-fuels and even purely
synthetic options. Synthetics are expensive but becomes feasible around
$50+/barrel.

So why don't we see fuel more options? Simple ecomonics. The oil
companies don't want to invest the billions into processing more low cost
crude ($28/barrel) because they want to be assured a return on their
investment. If oil prices fall, it's harder to get that return on new
refineries. Alternate fuel supplies take time to bring to market and the
new entries require a stable market to justify the investment. In the
global picture, war = unstable oil markets; which is where speculation
comes in. If five years from now, prices have continued to rise, then I
think you'll start to see MANY alternatives can start to come into the
equation which will lower our fuel costs again. ...as theory goes anyways...

Cheers,

Greg

"Greg Copeland" wrote in message
news
On Fri, 01 Jul 2005 13:37:32 -0700, M wrote:


Anyone worries about what the rising avgas price to the light plane
ownership in the U.S? I have absolutely no doubt that the average
avgas price will surpass $5/gallon in about 5 years. We'll probably
see a significant drop of GA flying, along with a big drop of the value
of used airplanes. It's really depressing just to think about it.

I wouldn't worry about it too much. Most people don't realize some simple
facts about oil and fuel costs.

One, the price we pay per barrel has zero to do with its availability. The
price we pay is basically a speculative futures price based on
estimates of what the market will bare. Fact is, oil companies around the
world are making record profits.

Two, there is now more known oil in the world than there has ever been in
the history of mankind.

Quite...and right now, a surplus is being generated. Where the surplus is
going is into storage and reserves.

http://www.trendmacro.com/a/luskin/2...7luskinSMC.asp

"Matt Barrow" wrote in message
...

"Greg Copeland" wrote in message
news
On Fri, 01 Jul 2005 13:37:32 -0700, M wrote:


One, the price we pay per barrel has zero to do with its availability.
The
price we pay is basically a speculative futures price based on
estimates of what the market will bare. Fact is, oil companies around
the
world are making record profits.

Two, there is now more known oil in the world than there has ever been in
the history of mankind.

Quite...and right now, a surplus is being generated. Where the surplus is
going is into storage and reserves.


Funny you say that. Here in Oz the Arabs always seem to raise their oil
prices just in time for school holidays, holiday weekends, and so on. Some
would suggest profiteering by the oil companies but our Government watchdog
can never find proof, as the Govt creams a fortune in taxes on the fuel
sales.
Brian

"SR20GOER" wrote in message
...

Two, there is now more known oil in the world than there has ever been
in
the history of mankind.

Quite...and right now, a surplus is being generated. Where the surplus
is
going is into storage and reserves.


Funny you say that. Here in Oz the Arabs always seem to raise their oil
prices just in time for school holidays, holiday weekends, and so on.
Some
would suggest profiteering by the oil companies but our Government
watchdog
can never find proof, as the Govt creams a fortune in taxes on the fuel
sales.

You need to read up a bit on how oil trades on the world markets.

"Matt Barrow" wrote in message
...

"SR20GOER" wrote in message
...

Two, there is now more known oil in the world than there has ever been
in
the history of mankind.

Quite...and right now, a surplus is being generated. Where the surplus
is
going is into storage and reserves.


Funny you say that. Here in Oz the Arabs always seem to raise their oil
prices just in time for school holidays, holiday weekends, and so on.
Some
would suggest profiteering by the oil companies but our Government
watchdog
can never find proof, as the Govt creams a fortune in taxes on the fuel
sales.

You need to read up a bit on how oil trades on the world markets.


I have some idea of how oil trades but there comes a time when the constant
coincidence of the price rise occurring to coincide with large parts of the
population going travelling by vehicle streatches beyond the realms of
probability or 3 sigma if you prefer. The current diesel price, given it is
cracked out early in the process, is even more laughable.
Brian

"SR20GOER" wrote in message
...

"Matt Barrow" wrote in message
...

"SR20GOER" wrote in message
...

Two, there is now more known oil in the world than there has ever
been
in
the history of mankind.

Quite...and right now, a surplus is being generated. Where the
surplus
is
going is into storage and reserves.


Funny you say that. Here in Oz the Arabs always seem to raise their
oil
prices just in time for school holidays, holiday weekends, and so on.
Some
would suggest profiteering by the oil companies but our Government
watchdog
can never find proof, as the Govt creams a fortune in taxes on the fuel
sales.

You need to read up a bit on how oil trades on the world markets.


I have some idea of how oil trades but there comes a time when the
constant
coincidence of the price rise occurring to coincide with large parts of
the
population going travelling by vehicle streatches beyond the realms of
probability or 3 sigma if you prefer. The current diesel price, given it
is
cracked out early in the process, is even more laughable.

Right now (actually the past couple years), the biggest jump in fuel use is
industrial applications in China and India.

Also, at this time, more oil is being produced than is being consumed,
mainly going into strategic reserves.