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#1
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Real stats on engine failures?
Howdy. I was discussing with a friend of mine my concerns about flying
single-engine planes at night or in hard IFR, due to the possibility of engine failure. My buddy is a CFI/CFII/ATP as well as an A&P, about 3500 hours, and been around airplanes for a long time, so I tend to give credence to his experiences. He asked me how often I thought a piston engine had an in-flight engine failure. I guestimated once every 10,000 hours or so. He said that was *dramatically* over-estimating the failure rate. He said that in his experience it is at least 40,000 to 50,000 hours per in-flight engine failure. The place where he works sometimes as a mechanic has plenty of planes come in for overhauls and annuals, and he estimates that for every plane that has had an engine failure before TBO, at least 20-30 make it to TBO without any failure (which would extrapolate to a similar figure). The flight school he teaches at has 7 Cessnas used for primary training and rental that have flown at least 40,000 hours total in the six years he has been there, and they have not experienced a single engine failure. I emailed Lycoming, and (unsurprisingly) they told me they did not keep records about engine failure rates. So I'd like to find out if anyone has done any objective analysis of certificated, piston-engine failure rates in light airplanes. I have seen all kinds of 'guesses', but little in the way of objective facts. After analyzing NTSB accident data and comparing to annual GA flight-hours, I'm starting to think my friend is on the right track, but that is a relatively small sample, and has some methodologial flaws. It's funny. I know 20,000 hour CFIs who have never had an engine failure, and I also know 300 hour PP-ASELs who have had engine failures. Just for giggles, I asked 8 pilot friends/relatives if they had ever had an engine failure. The only 'yes' was a relative who lost an engine after takeoff on his first solo cross-country in 1958. And I know one other pilot who had an engine failure, who I wasn't able to talk to. So what is it? If the engine-failure rate is one failure for every 50,000 flight hours, I'll feel much less reticent about night/IFR single-engine flying than if it is one in 10,000 hours. Anybody have any facts or hard data, or have any idea where I might be able to track some down? Thanks, Cap |
#2
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In article , Captain
Wubba wrote: So what is it? If the engine-failure rate is one failure for every 50,000 flight hours, I'll feel much less reticent about night/IFR single-engine flying than if it is one in 10,000 hours. Anybody have any facts or hard data, or have any idea where I might be able to track some down? The real question is, "How do you determine when it it your turn?" :-))) |
#3
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Know a bloke well with over 15'000 hours, he has had no engine failures. He has had however 4 self inficted engine failures, these were fuel system failures. Mostly failure to put enough in, failure to check for water contamination properly, failure to know the aircraft fuel system. This blokes expirence is all single engine, going from little Lyc's to Radial's and turbine. Most Iv'e come across in the last 25 years aviating have had no problems, usually if there are it's a maintaince issue or operator induced. -- studentpilot ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Posted via OziPilots Online [ http://www.OziPilotsOnline.com.au ] - A website for Australian Pilots regardless of when, why, or what they fly - |
#4
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studentpilot wrote:
Know a bloke well with over 15'000 hours, he has had no engine failures. He has had however 4 self inficted engine failures, these were fuel system failures. Mostly failure to put enough in, failure to check for water contamination properly, failure to know the aircraft fuel system. This blokes expirence is all single engine, going from little Lyc's to Radial's and turbine. Why do you exclude fuel exhaustion, fuel contamination etc? Don't they happen if you're IFR? If you're IFR or at night it doesn't really matter WHY it stops. |
#5
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Andrew Rowley wrote in message . ..
studentpilot wrote: Know a bloke well with over 15'000 hours, he has had no engine failures. He has had however 4 self inficted engine failures, these were fuel system failures. Mostly failure to put enough in, failure to check for water contamination properly, failure to know the aircraft fuel system. This blokes expirence is all single engine, going from little Lyc's to Radial's and turbine. Why do you exclude fuel exhaustion, fuel contamination etc? Don't they happen if you're IFR? If you're IFR or at night it doesn't really matter WHY it stops. Because I can control these problems. If I do a proper preflight, the probability of fuel contamination is very, very low. If I do the proper fuel calculations and check the fuel levels and carry proper reserves, I'm not going to run out of gas. This is about risk management. I can manage the risks of fuel contamination or exhaustion very easily, if I exercise diligence and care. If those are no longer concerns, the primary engine-related concern becomes mechanical failure, and that's what I'm looking at. Cap |
#6
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Presumably all the pilots who had engine failures believed the same thing.
Mike MU-2 "Captain Wubba" wrote in message om... Andrew Rowley wrote in message . .. studentpilot wrote: Know a bloke well with over 15'000 hours, he has had no engine failures. He has had however 4 self inficted engine failures, these were fuel system failures. Mostly failure to put enough in, failure to check for water contamination properly, failure to know the aircraft fuel system. This blokes expirence is all single engine, going from little Lyc's to Radial's and turbine. Why do you exclude fuel exhaustion, fuel contamination etc? Don't they happen if you're IFR? If you're IFR or at night it doesn't really matter WHY it stops. Because I can control these problems. If I do a proper preflight, the probability of fuel contamination is very, very low. If I do the proper fuel calculations and check the fuel levels and carry proper reserves, I'm not going to run out of gas. This is about risk management. I can manage the risks of fuel contamination or exhaustion very easily, if I exercise diligence and care. If those are no longer concerns, the primary engine-related concern becomes mechanical failure, and that's what I'm looking at. Cap |
#7
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"Captain Wubba" wrote in message om... This is about risk management. I can manage the risks of fuel contamination or exhaustion very easily, if I exercise diligence and care. If those are no longer concerns, the primary engine-related concern becomes mechanical failure, and that's what I'm looking at. I'm with you. I'm most interested in anything which forces me down. Included in that would be carburetor failure, fuel line breaks, engine fire, as well as the engine deciding to punch a hole in the case... stuff that I could never protect against by a thorough preflight. I'd also be interested in survival statistics for forced landings at night, over mountainous terrain, in cold weather etc. for *any* reason (including self-induced fuel exhaustion). Then it is easy to work out the risks. -- Dr. Tony Cox Citrus Controls Inc. e-mail: http://CitrusControls.com/ |
#8
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#9
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"studentpilot" wrote in message ... Know a bloke well with over 15'000 hours, he has had no engine failures. My airplane has about 5500 hours over 50 years on it. It's had two fairly major engine failures to my knowledge. I had the (mis)fortune of having the second one which put an end to this engine (it's sitting in my basement a new zero-time replacement is now installed). |
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