A disturbing statistic

I've had many non-pilot friends and co-workers ask, "Is flying a small plane
more or less dangerous than driving a car?", to which my response has always
been "It depends on who is piloting the plane." However, in order to get
a firmer answer from a statistical standpoint on this question, I decided
to do a little homework:

According to the DOT, the 2005 automobile fatality accident rate is:
1.47 fatalities per 100 million miles traveled
(see http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/)

According to the 2005 Nall Report, the general aviation fatality accident rate
is: 1.2 fatalities per 100,000 flight hours
(see http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/nall.html)

In order to compare these two statistics, we obviously need to assume an
average velocity for either automobiles or GA aircraft. If we assume an
average GA aircraft velocity of 150 mph, then the aviation accident statistic
becomes 1.2 fatalities per 15 million miles.

Thus, based on the above, it appears that the GA fatality rate is somewhere
around 7 times that of automobiles. Now I realize that one could fudge the
average GA aircraft velocity velocity up or down, but I'm farily confident
that it's not above 200 mph, nor below 100 mph, which brakets the aviation
fatality rate between 5 and 10 times that of driving. A sobering thought...

Comments?

-- Dane

Here's a thought exercise that will get you in touch with this data.

1) How many people do you personally know that have been
wiped out in airplanes? (my answer--quite a few; way too many)

2) How many people do you personally know that have been
wiped out in car accidents? (my answer--have to struggle to
remember more than a couple, one of whom was
ironically a pilot)

3) How many more people do you know who drive than fly?
(personal answer: Many X)

Might be more useful to compare flying to those who ride motorcycles.

Bill Hale
Still ducking the bullet

Dane Spearing wrote:
I've had many non-pilot friends and co-workers ask, "Is flying a small plane
more or less dangerous than driving a car?", to which my response has always
been "It depends on who is piloting the plane." However, in order to get
a firmer answer from a statistical standpoint on this question, I decided
to do a little homework:

According to the DOT, the 2005 automobile fatality accident rate is:
1.47 fatalities per 100 million miles traveled
(see http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/)

According to the 2005 Nall Report, the general aviation fatality accident rate
is: 1.2 fatalities per 100,000 flight hours
(see http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/nall.html)

In order to compare these two statistics, we obviously need to assume an
average velocity for either automobiles or GA aircraft. If we assume an
average GA aircraft velocity of 150 mph, then the aviation accident statistic
becomes 1.2 fatalities per 15 million miles.

Thus, based on the above, it appears that the GA fatality rate is somewhere
around 7 times that of automobiles. Now I realize that one could fudge the
average GA aircraft velocity velocity up or down, but I'm farily confident
that it's not above 200 mph, nor below 100 mph, which brakets the aviation
fatality rate between 5 and 10 times that of driving. A sobering thought...

Comments?

-- Dane

On 30 Oct 2006 16:34:15 -0800, "Bill" wrote:

Here's a thought exercise that will get you in touch with this data.

1) How many people do you personally know that have been
wiped out in airplanes? (my answer--quite a few; way too many)

A few. I can only think of two that I knew personally.

2) How many people do you personally know that have been
wiped out in car accidents? (my answer--have to struggle to
remember more than a couple, one of whom was
ironically a pilot)


A bunch. I'd have to stretch my memory, but I can think of about 10
right now and about half of them were in the last 15 years.


3) How many more people do you know who drive than fly?
(personal answer: Many X)

Personally I know about 30 pilots. I know of about 70 locally. We
have about 50,000 drivers in the immediate area.


Might be more useful to compare flying to those who ride motorcycles.

When I got to the point I thought I knew what I was doing I sold mine.

Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com

"Bill" wrote:

Here's a thought exercise that will get you in touch with this data.

1) How many people do you personally know that have been
wiped out in airplanes? (my answer--quite a few; way too many)

2) How many people do you personally know that have been
wiped out in car accidents? (my answer--have to struggle to
remember more than a couple, one of whom was
ironically a pilot)

3) How many more people do you know who drive than fly?
(personal answer: Many X)

Might be more useful to compare flying to those who ride motorcycles.


Or ask yourself: how many celebrities can you name who have been killed in
plane crashes vs. the number kiled in car crashes? In the former, quite a
few; in the latter, just a couple.

Now ask yourself: how much time do celebrities spend travelling in airplanes
vs. the time spent in cars?

--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

Dan Luke wrote:

Or ask yourself: how many celebrities can you name who have been killed in
plane crashes vs. the number kiled in car crashes? In the former, quite a
few; in the latter, just a couple.

Now ask yourself: how much time do celebrities spend travelling in airplanes
vs. the time spent in cars?


Light aircraft? Not very many.

Biz jets? Quite a few.

"Sam Spade" wrote:

Or ask yourself: how many celebrities can you name who have been killed
in plane crashes vs. the number kiled in car crashes? In the former,
quite a few; in the latter, just a couple.

Now ask yourself: how much time do celebrities spend travelling in
airplanes vs. the time spent in cars?


Light aircraft? Not very many.

Cory Lidle, Scott Crossfield, Game show host Peter Tomarken, vocalist
Aaliyah, Mel Carnahan, Tony Lee Bettenhausen Jr., JFK Jr., John Denver,
baseball player Jim Hardin, Art Scholl, Hale Boggs, Buddy Holly, Audie
Murphy, Rocky Marciano, Jim "Gentleman" Reeves, Patsy Cline, Buddy Clark,
Will Rogers & Wiley Post... and that's not including helicopters. Not many?

Biz jets? Quite a few.


--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

Dan Luke wrote:
"Sam Spade" wrote:

Or ask yourself: how many celebrities can you name who have been killed
in plane crashes vs. the number kiled in car crashes? In the former,
quite a few; in the latter, just a couple.

Now ask yourself: how much time do celebrities spend travelling in
airplanes vs. the time spent in cars?


Light aircraft? Not very many.


Cory Lidle, Scott Crossfield, Game show host Peter Tomarken, vocalist
Aaliyah, Mel Carnahan, Tony Lee Bettenhausen Jr., JFK Jr., John Denver,
baseball player Jim Hardin, Art Scholl, Hale Boggs, Buddy Holly, Audie
Murphy, Rocky Marciano, Jim "Gentleman" Reeves, Patsy Cline, Buddy Clark,
Will Rogers & Wiley Post... and that's not including helicopters. Not many?

How many of those are dead?

Some of those folks flew when biz jets were yet a dream.

Nearly everyone in the *21st Century* in show biz who has the money uses
biz jets, especially since fractional ownership came into being.

High end turbine helicopters fit into the biz jet category. They are
generally professionally flown. Much of the high-end rotorcraft stuff
the Wall Street Barons use up and down the East River are flown by two
crew members.

(Dane Spearing) wrote:

Thus, based on the above, it appears that the GA fatality rate is somewhere
around 7 times that of automobiles. Now I realize that one could fudge the
average GA aircraft velocity velocity up or down, but I'm farily confident
that it's not above 200 mph, nor below 100 mph, which brakets the aviation
fatality rate between 5 and 10 times that of driving. A sobering thought...

Since I doubt that I will ever fly 15 million miles I am not too
worried. Plus I do not plan on making a mistake that is at the root
of most flying fatalities...major pilot error.

Ron Lee

There are so many different ways to be got that I don't think one
can make this assertion. Avoiding scud running is a start. So
is running out of fuel. Nobody plans to do these things.

Incidentally, among more experienced pilots, most accidents
are the result of judgement problems and not basic stick skills.

Bill Hale


Ron Lee wrote:
....
worried. Plus I do not plan on making a mistake that is at the root
of most flying fatalities...major pilot error.

Ron Lee

"Dane Spearing" wrote in message
...
Thus, based on the above, it appears that the GA fatality rate is
somewhere
around 7 times that of automobiles. Now I realize that one could fudge
the
average GA aircraft velocity velocity up or down, but I'm farily confident
that it's not above 200 mph, nor below 100 mph, which brakets the aviation
fatality rate between 5 and 10 times that of driving. A sobering
thought...

Yup. There've been many threads here on this topic, and (among people who do
the research and the arithmetic) the conclusions have been in line with
yours.

Moreover, according to the Nall Report, personal (as opposed to commercial)
GA flying has about twice the fatality rate of GA flying overall.

On the other hand, instructional flight (solo and dual) has about half the
fatality rate of GA overall (even though the most dangerous phases of
flight--takeoff, landing, and low-altitude maneuvering--are presumably
overrepresented in instructional flight). What that suggests is that flying
simple planes, maintaining proficiency, and having conservative standards
regarding weather adds up to a fatality rate that is only slightly greater
than that of driving.

--Gary