Safety, yet again...

Which is safer flying or driving?

Fatalities per million trips Odds of being
killed on a single trip:
Airliner (Part 121) 0.019
52.6 million to 1
Automobile 0.130
7.6 million to 1
Commuter Airline (Part 135 scheduled) 1.72 581,395 to
1
Commuter Plane (Part 135 - Air taxi on demand) 6.10 163,934 to 1
General Aviation (Part 91) 13.3
73,187 to 1

(Sources: NTSB Accidents and Accident Rates by NTSB Classification
1995-2004 DOT Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) 1995- 2004
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety.)

It's pretty obvious that GA is the poor step-child of aviation.

Does anyone know how to extract the "stupid pilot trick" fatalities
(I.E.: Running out of gas; Flying into terrain; Buzzing your
girlfriend's house; etc.) from this statistic?
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

Gosh, I hate it when formating gets all screwed up like that. Let's
try THIS:

Which is safer flying or driving?

Fatalities per million trips
Airliner (Part 121) 0.019
Odds of being killed on a single trip:
52.6 million to 1

Fatalities per million trips
Automobile 0.130
Odds of being killed on a single trip:
7.6 million to 1

Fatalities per million trips
Commuter Airline (Part 135 scheduled) 1.72
Odds of being killed on a single trip:
581,395 to 1

Fatalities per million trips
Commuter Plane (Part 135 - Air taxi on demand) 6.10
Odds of being killed on a single trip:
163,934 to 1

Fatalities per million trips
General Aviation (Part 91) 13.3
Odds of being killed on a single trip:
73,187 to 1

(Sources: NTSB Accidents and Accident Rates by NTSB Classification
1995-2004 DOT Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) 1995- 2004
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety.)

It's pretty obvious that GA is the poor step-child of aviation.

Does anyone know how to extract the "stupid pilot trick" fatalities
(I.E.: Running out of gas; Flying into terrain; Buzzing your
girlfriend's house; etc.) from this statistic?
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

"Jay Honeck" wrote in news:1145761231.603449.52800
@t31g2000cwb.googlegroups.com:

Snipola
Does anyone know how to extract the "stupid pilot trick" fatalities
(I.E.: Running out of gas; Flying into terrain; Buzzing your
girlfriend's house; etc.) from this statistic?

At first glance, you have a point. But then, how many of the auto
accidents are due to "stupid driver tricks"? Showing off to your
buddies, racing the car next to you, driving while putting on
makeup, late for work....

Also, could there be "stupid pilot tricks" in the other categories
as well?

If you remove stupidity from one category, you'd have to remove
it from all of them. Then, you'd have a new piece of information,
the ratio of how many stupid idiots there are in each category.

I wonder which has more? GA or cars? I'll bet its cars by a long
shot.

Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?

If you remove stupidity from one category, you'd have to remove
it from all of them. Then, you'd have a new piece of information,
the ratio of how many stupid idiots there are in each category.

Well, true enough. But "stupid pilot tricks" are not usually fatal if
they occur in a car.

For example, running out of gas in your Subaru is an inconvenience.
Running out of gas in your Cessna is probably going to bend metal -- or
kill you.

Squealing your tires in front of your girl friend's house might get you
a ticket. Buzzing your girl friend's house might get you killed. And
so on...

I guess the point is that flying is far less forgiving of "stupid
tricks" than driving. Extracting them from both sets of statistics
therefore WON'T result in a straight line, equivalent change of fatal
incidents.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

"Jay Honeck" wrote in message

Does anyone know how to extract the "stupid pilot trick" fatalities
(I.E.: Running out of gas; Flying into terrain; Buzzing your
girlfriend's house; etc.) from this statistic?

Why would you want to? You would then present a false picture of GA,
deliberately skewed to make it appear safer and more responsible than it
truly is.

Does anyone know how to extract the "stupid pilot trick" fatalities
(I.E.: Running out of gas; Flying into terrain; Buzzing your
girlfriend's house; etc.) from this statistic?

Why would you want to?

Because I'm interesting in *my* probability of dying in a plane crash,
not anyone elses.

Since I:

a) Usually fly with two pilots on board
b) Have a well-oiled cockpit resource management scheme in place
c) Always top off the tanks after each flight
d) Never fly IFR
e) Never fly at night
f) Never "buzz" anyone's house
g) Never skip a pre-flight inspection
h) Personally supervise the maintenance of my plane
i) Don't let anyone else fly my plane
j) Rarely fly in mountains
k) Fly twice per week, on average
l) Maintain excellent health
m) Don't "skate" on maintenance
n) Keep the plane in a locked hangar

....I conclude that I may eliminate many of the "stupid pilot tricks"
from my personal risk assessment.

Trouble is, I don't know how to do that...
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

"Jay Honeck" wrote in news:1145762260.574792.162910
@u72g2000cwu.googlegroups.com:

Snipola
I guess the point is that flying is far less forgiving of "stupid
tricks" than driving.

Very true....no disagreement from me.


Extracting them from both sets of statistics
therefore WON'T result in a straight line, equivalent change of fatal
incidents.

But maybe that's worth showing? The information could be used
to show new pilots the importance of proper flying. Goof around
in a car, and you might be ok. Goof around in a plane, and you
might be dead.

Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?

On 22 Apr 2006 22:04:51 -0700, "Jay Honeck"
wrote:

Because I'm interesting in *my* probability of dying in a plane crash,
not anyone elses.

We've been here before. Probability has to do with populations, not
with you as an individual. You do something, you wind up either dead
or alive. No fractions. The coin comes down either heads or tails.
It doesn't matter what side it came down on the last ten flips.

This is your life. Be careful. Enjoy. Select your risks.

Don

Because I'm interesting in *my* probability of dying in a plane crash,
not anyone elses.

We've been here before. Probability has to do with populations, not
with you as an individual. You do something, you wind up either dead
or alive. No fractions. The coin comes down either heads or tails.
It doesn't matter what side it came down on the last ten flips.

This is your life. Be careful. Enjoy. Select your risks.

Point taken, but surely there is knowledge to be gained by subtracting
the "stupid pilot tricks" from the total number of fatal accidents?
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

"Jay Honeck" wrote

Point taken, but surely there is knowledge to be gained by subtracting
the "stupid pilot tricks" from the total number of fatal accidents?

I agree.

I know, let's put you in charge of this important project. Carefully go
through all of the accidents, read all of the NTSB rulings, total them all
up, then give us the results.

You don't have anything else better to do, sitting at that hotel desk all of
the time. Just get off your arse, and do it! g
--
Jim (ducking, really low) in NC