Plane crashed -- what happened?

A good friend is grieving the sudden loss of another friend from a plane
crash about a week ago. Neither the pilot nor the sole passenger survived.

With very little information to go on with... I'm wondering what could
have had been the possible factors into such an accident.

I am sure the NTSB will do a good job in about 12-18 months from now
when the final report is released. However, I'm still curious about the
possibilities, and trying to make some head and tail of it all.

Situation: pilot departed Portland, Oregon in his 1983 Glasair with
destination being Crescent City, CA (CEC) around 12:30 am local time.

Shortly after 2am local time, Seattle ATC reportedly received word from
the pilot indicating he had CEC in visual sight and was terminating
radar service, and switching to the local airport frequency. That was
the final transmission received.

Sounds like he had flight following? NTSB indicates he hadn't filed a
flight plan so he had to be flying VFR.

The authorities later determined the plane crashed in the ocean right by
the Oregon and California border, about 700 yards off shore. The place
is about 20-something miles away from CEC?

Preliminary NTSB report indicates that at 0156 local time, at CEC:

1. VMC conditions prevailed -- clear at 10 statue miles
2. Wind was 110 degrees at 5 knots
3. Temp was 12 deg C, dewpoint was 5 deg C

Final radar contact was lost at 0204, when the plane was at 400' AGL.

Radar data indicates that 'the target' [as the NTSB put it] was
descending at an high rate prior to the final radar contact.

So my questions:

1. Would it have been possible for a pilot to see a destination
airport from about 25 nm out, at night?

I don't have much night flying experience. On the east coast,
it's not easy to see places that far out at night... but
that's mostly due to *all* the lights on the ground!

2. Is it possible the pilot might have seen lights reflecting
off the water and misinterpreted it as runway lights?

3. If #2 is possible, could the pilot have had dived to 'make
the runway'?

I seem to recall that with night flying, it's easier to
misjudge height.

4. Rapid descent -- a possible stall/spin?

Uncoordinated flight, slowing down, maybe a change in AOA
without benefit of a visible horizon to warn brain? Aka 'a
graveyard spiral'?

5. Engine failure (fuel, mechanical) or carb icing due to shock
cooling?

I'm skeptical of this one because the trained pilot will
ordinarily immediately set up for best glide speed and only
maneuver as necessary.

6. Asymmetrical flaps situation?

Seems somewhat unlikely because flaps wouldn't have had been
deployed until late in the downwind leg by the destination runway.

7. Could the pilot have gotten lost, misunderstood current
position, or just gotten confused, and mistaken the area for CEC?

From my understanding, the pilot's home airport may have had
been CEC. If that was the case, then he would probably be more
familiar with CEC+vicinty flying and possibly including night flight?

8. CFIT? Hitting a tower/antenna or mountainous/cliff terrain?

I'm not familiar with places out west, though I understand that
terrain is a very real issue. But if the plane crashed in the
ocean... hard to see how it could be terrain related.

Granted, it wasn't too far from shore -- about 700 yards.

I don't have a Klamath Falls sectional... alas. I know
there's some r.a.p folks here that either lives in the region or
are pretty familiar with the region.

9. Airframe icing doesn't sound too likely since there was no
report of that from other pilots in the area at time of the crash.

10. Wind shear doesn't sound too likely. Wasn't really windy on
the ground at CEC; unlikely to be significantly different
only 20nm away along the coast?

11. Does the Glasair have special handling characteristics that
someone not familiar with it might need to pay attention to?

12. The NTSB didn't specify the rate of descent, but their choice
of wording ('rapid') suggests an higher than normal rate of
descent.

Does this sound like establishing for best glide to anyone?
Or like a really serious problem?

13. Sudden debilitating medical condition seems unlikely because
the pilot was 27 years old and not known to have any
preexisting serious health issue.

14. Other possibilities?

I do know for sure the pilot owned this plane.

Considering his age, I find it unlikely he was the original owner.

I do not know his total time (flight hours) nor hours in the Glasair. I
understand the Glasair is a pretty nice plane, in general.

I do not know the cruise altitude he flew at. They might know that one
based on radar returns, but if they do, they didn't say so in the
preliminary report. I understand the NTSB got its preliminary data from
both FAA and U.S. military radar data.

Not so sure it's necessarily plane's fault like the family and friends
seems to think -- odds in general aviation are pretty good that it's
often human error somewhere in the chain.

I am accepting that while not pleasant, these things do happen despite
the best of efforts made to prevent it. I know, understand, and
appreciate the risks.

I understand survivability was not real good -- reportedly 50 degree F
water at the time of crash, though a local newspaper described the water
as being 'icy'.

No idea if hyperbole or fact... but either way, the passenger was
recovered about 6 1/2 hours later. I doubt one could have had survived
that long without any additional protection. (Neither person made it.)

The family and friends, not being as familiar with aviation, are taking
it much harder. So I'm hoping to be able to converse more intelligently
once whenever they're ready to start asking questions about aviation
related matters and the crash.

Anyway... any comments would be much appreciated.

-Dan

"Dan Foster" wrote:
Not so sure it's necessarily plane's fault like the family and friends
seems to think -- odds in general aviation are pretty good that it's
often human error somewhere in the chain.

Sorry for the loss of your friend.

Could have been just about any of the things you mention, or a
combination of several; we may never know, of course.

Still, if I were betting, my money would be on simple spatial
disorientation as the cause. Very easy to lose one's bearings over
water at night, even when it's good VMC.

Even over land, one can get out of shape from visual illusions very
easily. The only time I ever came close to killing myself in an
airplane was in the pattern at a rural airport on a nice, VMC night.
Turning base, I looked at the airspeed indicator a moment and, when I
looked outside again, got a false horizon off some ground lights and
quickly overbanked the airplane. By the time I realized I had a
problem--just a few seconds--I was within a couple hundred feet of the
ground in a 60-deg. bank and descending fast. I had a moment of near
panic as I realized I couldn't find the real horizon. The attitude
indicator saved the day--er, night--but a few more seconds delay would
have put me in the ground.
--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

Was he instrument rated? Did the airplane have a GPS? If he had a GPS,
I doubt he mistook lights in the ocean for the airport.

I doubt he was using flaps at 20 miles out, and it's no problem to see
the airport at 25 out also. It sounds to me like structural failure
from what I read so far.

I would say he was in a descent and well into the yellow arc. If he
reported in sight at 25 out, he would have to have some altitude. Five
miles later would mean he had the nose pointed down and the airspeed
way up, I usually do anyway 20 miles out -

Or a bird coming through the windshield maybe.

Recently, Dan Foster posted:

A good friend is grieving the sudden loss of another friend from a
plane crash about a week ago. Neither the pilot nor the sole
passenger survived.

With very little information to go on with... I'm wondering what could
have had been the possible factors into such an accident.

[...]
Final radar contact was lost at 0204, when the plane was at 400' AGL.

Radar data indicates that 'the target' [as the NTSB put it] was
descending at an high rate prior to the final radar contact.

My guess is spatial disorientation. When flying over the water at night,
or even during the day on a hazy overcast day, one pretty much has to rely
on instruments. It doesn't take long to get out of whack.

So my questions:

1. Would it have been possible for a pilot to see a destination
airport from about 25 nm out, at night?

Yes, very easily. At night, I have no problem seeing airports with
arriving/departing flights from that distance even from 1,500 ft. Judging
distances can be difficult on a clear night.

I don't have much night flying experience. On the east coast,
it's not easy to see places that far out at night... but
that's mostly due to *all* the lights on the ground!

You may be able to see them, but not discern the airport from the other
lights. The tower lights may be more easy to find.

2. Is it possible the pilot might have seen lights reflecting
off the water and misinterpreted it as runway lights?

Hmmm. I wouldn't think so.

Uncoordinated flight, slowing down, maybe a change in AOA
without benefit of a visible horizon to warn brain? Aka 'a
graveyard spiral'?

That is very possible.

Best regards, and condolences to your friends.

Neil

A few things come to mind:

First .. was he instrument rated? I know you said it was clear .. but could
he have gotten into some scattered clouds or had some get between him and
the city lights and lost control maneuvering by reference to instruments?

Second .. a 22 yr old homebuilt composite aircraft. Structural failure?



"Dan Foster" wrote in message
...
A good friend is grieving the sudden loss of another friend from a plane
crash about a week ago. Neither the pilot nor the sole passenger survived.

With very little information to go on with... I'm wondering what could
have had been the possible factors into such an accident.

I am sure the NTSB will do a good job in about 12-18 months from now
when the final report is released. However, I'm still curious about the
possibilities, and trying to make some head and tail of it all.

Situation: pilot departed Portland, Oregon in his 1983 Glasair with
destination being Crescent City, CA (CEC) around 12:30 am local time.

Shortly after 2am local time, Seattle ATC reportedly received word from
the pilot indicating he had CEC in visual sight and was terminating
radar service, and switching to the local airport frequency. That was
the final transmission received.

Sounds like he had flight following? NTSB indicates he hadn't filed a
flight plan so he had to be flying VFR.

The authorities later determined the plane crashed in the ocean right by
the Oregon and California border, about 700 yards off shore. The place
is about 20-something miles away from CEC?

Preliminary NTSB report indicates that at 0156 local time, at CEC:

1. VMC conditions prevailed -- clear at 10 statue miles
2. Wind was 110 degrees at 5 knots
3. Temp was 12 deg C, dewpoint was 5 deg C

Final radar contact was lost at 0204, when the plane was at 400' AGL.

Radar data indicates that 'the target' [as the NTSB put it] was
descending at an high rate prior to the final radar contact.

So my questions:

1. Would it have been possible for a pilot to see a destination
airport from about 25 nm out, at night?

I don't have much night flying experience. On the east coast,
it's not easy to see places that far out at night... but
that's mostly due to *all* the lights on the ground!

2. Is it possible the pilot might have seen lights reflecting
off the water and misinterpreted it as runway lights?

3. If #2 is possible, could the pilot have had dived to 'make
the runway'?

I seem to recall that with night flying, it's easier to
misjudge height.

4. Rapid descent -- a possible stall/spin?

Uncoordinated flight, slowing down, maybe a change in AOA
without benefit of a visible horizon to warn brain? Aka 'a
graveyard spiral'?

5. Engine failure (fuel, mechanical) or carb icing due to shock
cooling?

I'm skeptical of this one because the trained pilot will
ordinarily immediately set up for best glide speed and only
maneuver as necessary.

6. Asymmetrical flaps situation?

Seems somewhat unlikely because flaps wouldn't have had been
deployed until late in the downwind leg by the destination runway.

7. Could the pilot have gotten lost, misunderstood current
position, or just gotten confused, and mistaken the area for CEC?

From my understanding, the pilot's home airport may have had
been CEC. If that was the case, then he would probably be more
familiar with CEC+vicinty flying and possibly including night flight?

8. CFIT? Hitting a tower/antenna or mountainous/cliff terrain?

I'm not familiar with places out west, though I understand that
terrain is a very real issue. But if the plane crashed in the
ocean... hard to see how it could be terrain related.

Granted, it wasn't too far from shore -- about 700 yards.

I don't have a Klamath Falls sectional... alas. I know
there's some r.a.p folks here that either lives in the region or
are pretty familiar with the region.

9. Airframe icing doesn't sound too likely since there was no
report of that from other pilots in the area at time of the crash.

10. Wind shear doesn't sound too likely. Wasn't really windy on
the ground at CEC; unlikely to be significantly different
only 20nm away along the coast?

11. Does the Glasair have special handling characteristics that
someone not familiar with it might need to pay attention to?

12. The NTSB didn't specify the rate of descent, but their choice
of wording ('rapid') suggests an higher than normal rate of
descent.

Does this sound like establishing for best glide to anyone?
Or like a really serious problem?

13. Sudden debilitating medical condition seems unlikely because
the pilot was 27 years old and not known to have any
preexisting serious health issue.

14. Other possibilities?

I do know for sure the pilot owned this plane.

Considering his age, I find it unlikely he was the original owner.

I do not know his total time (flight hours) nor hours in the Glasair. I
understand the Glasair is a pretty nice plane, in general.

I do not know the cruise altitude he flew at. They might know that one
based on radar returns, but if they do, they didn't say so in the
preliminary report. I understand the NTSB got its preliminary data from
both FAA and U.S. military radar data.

Not so sure it's necessarily plane's fault like the family and friends
seems to think -- odds in general aviation are pretty good that it's
often human error somewhere in the chain.

I am accepting that while not pleasant, these things do happen despite
the best of efforts made to prevent it. I know, understand, and
appreciate the risks.

I understand survivability was not real good -- reportedly 50 degree F
water at the time of crash, though a local newspaper described the water
as being 'icy'.

No idea if hyperbole or fact... but either way, the passenger was
recovered about 6 1/2 hours later. I doubt one could have had survived
that long without any additional protection. (Neither person made it.)

The family and friends, not being as familiar with aviation, are taking
it much harder. So I'm hoping to be able to converse more intelligently
once whenever they're ready to start asking questions about aviation
related matters and the crash.

Anyway... any comments would be much appreciated.

-Dan

Take a look at:

http://www.landings.com/evird.acgi$pass*70934345!_h-www.landings.com/_landings/pages/search/certs-pilot.html

If you know the pilot's name, you can see if he was instrument rated.

On 2005-03-02 14:35, Bravo8500 wrote:
Or a bird coming through the windshield maybe.

Not many birds fly at night.

/Rolf