Bad day in Oklahoma

I was scheduled to fly today; my CFI said I need some work on landings before
he'd sign me off. I checked ADDS before I left the house, and the TAF said there
should have a 14 knot crosswind component, which would be OK. In Oklahoma if you
can't do crosswind T/O's, you can't fly. When I got the field, the flags in
front of the FBO were furling perpendicular to 17/35. I watch a Hawker takeoff
on 17L and went in the flight school and rescheduled. Bummer, I could fly again
today.

When I got home the news said we had two wild fires in Oklahoma. One in the
south. At one time the fire front was eight miles across. The land to the south
is flat rangeland, and the fire spread fast and wide. The other was in Lincoln
County, which is hilly with lots of trees and undergrowth. The fire trucks could
get in to the fires. They had too wait at the roads for the fire to come to
them.

Because of the winds the tankers could not takeoff form Ardmore (KADM). One of
the single pilot tankers did run off of the runway. The pilot is OK and walked
away. The plane did not catch fire. They were worried that a fire might get to
the other tankers. I'm not clear on the story about tankers.

A fire chief said that not all of the fires out to the south, but they had it
contained. As the news helicopter shows someone's house total involved. Hadn't
heard anything about the fire in Lincoln County.

Me not able to fly today, seem a little trivial.

GeorgeC

A fire chief said that not all of the fires out to the south, but they had
it
contained. As the news helicopter shows someone's house total involved.
Hadn't
heard anything about the fire in Lincoln County.

Me not able to fly today, seem a little trivial.

Funny how everything is relative. Sounds like you made the right decision.

I did too. We were supposed to fly to Wisconsin yesterday, to visit
friends. The weather was forecast to be perfect, but things started heading
downhill with the outlook briefing two days ago. Then, yesterday's
prediction was changed to be marginal, but today was supposed to still be
good.

Today absolutely sucks, with freezing rain and snow along the route of
flight. 72 hours ago, it was predicted to be sunny and warm. Had we
departed yesterday, we'd be stuck in Wisconsin for sure.

Weather forecasting computer models are so incredibly flawed that they can't
reliably predict the weather 12 hours in advance -- yet, for some unknown
reason, many people trust computer models that purport to show what the
climate will be like in the year 2100.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

Weather forecasting computer models are so incredibly flawed that they can't
reliably predict the weather 12 hours in advance -- yet, for some
unknown
reason, many people trust computer models that purport to show what the

climate will be like in the year 2100.

Jay, you hit on one of my favorite rants here : )

Vagaries of weather forecasting aside, and I'm certainly no expert -
but you'd think with the bazillion dollar constellation of wx
satellites in orbit the weather-guessers would have it down by now, or
at least better than the .500(?) avg it seems they're struggling
with...

PS

My CFI called to today and he has sinusitis and will be grounded for three days.
Things just keep getting better and better.

On a good note, the "Director of Flight Instruction" was looking at the Prog
charts, and said, "It actually looks like if might rain." I just checked the
patio and it was sprinkling.

GeorgeC

btw - back in 1984, NASA was estimating that it would need several orders
of magnitude more computing power to run better wx models (they had a
so-so
model that took 48 hours to run in order to generate a 24 hour forecast!).

Well, they've still got a long ways to go, that's for sure.

I haven't been able to rely on ANY weather forecasts this winter. It's my
impression that the NWS is having a very hard time of it, this year.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

"Jay Honeck" wrote in message
news:iYJNf.588844$084.268831@attbi_s22...
btw - back in 1984, NASA was estimating that it would need several orders
of magnitude more computing power to run better wx models (they had a
so-so
model that took 48 hours to run in order to generate a 24 hour
forecast!).

Well, they've still got a long ways to go, that's for sure.

I haven't been able to rely on ANY weather forecasts this winter. It's my
impression that the NWS is having a very hard time of it, this year.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"


In defense of the NWS I doubt this winter in the midwest fit any previous
recorded model. Was heading up to American Champion this morning and ran
into unforecasted near blizzard conditions.

I haven't been able to rely on ANY weather forecasts this winter.

The BBC has much better forecasts. Here's one from some years back;
it's still valid:

Tonight's forecast - dark. Continued dark throughout the night, patches
of light appearing just before dawn. Increasing brightness throughout
the day, with areas of dark building as evening comes. Darkness will
gather strength throughout the next evening.

If you missed seven forty five last night, don't worry, it will be back
again tomorrow, at a quarter to eight.

Jose
--
Money: what you need when you run out of brains.
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

Does the name George Carlin ring a familiar note?

Jim




Tonight's forecast - dark. Continued dark throughout the night, patches
of light appearing just before dawn. Increasing brightness throughout the
day, with areas of dark building as evening comes. Darkness will gather
strength throughout the next evening.

If you missed seven forty five last night, don't worry, it will be back
again tomorrow, at a quarter to eight.

Jose
--
Money: what you need when you run out of brains.
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

"Jay Honeck" wrote

Well, they've still got a long ways to go, that's for sure.

I haven't been able to rely on ANY weather forecasts this winter. It's my
impression that the NWS is having a very hard time of it, this year.


Hmm, around here, there has been very little to forcast. A few minor rain
events, a couple of temperature dips.

It has just been a mild, nothing of a winter.

Watch it all turn around, and dump a buttload of snow on us, before it is
done! g
--
Jim in NC

"GeorgeC" wrote in message ...
snip

When I got home the news said we had two wild fires in Oklahoma. One in the
south. At one time the fire front was eight miles across. The land to the south
is flat rangeland, and the fire spread fast and wide. The other was in Lincoln
County, which is hilly with lots of trees and undergrowth. The fire trucks could
get in to the fires. They had too wait at the roads for the fire to come to
them.
Because of the winds the tankers could not takeoff form Ardmore (KADM). One of
the single pilot tankers did run off of the runway. The pilot is OK and walked
away. The plane did not catch fire. They were worried that a fire might get to
the other tankers. I'm not clear on the story about tankers.

A fire chief said that not all of the fires out to the south, but they had it
contained. As the news helicopter shows someone's house total involved. Hadn't
heard anything about the fire in Lincoln County.

Me not able to fly today, seem a little trivial.

GeorgeC

I guess they forgot the fire just down the road from me! We had fire trucks waiting in line at the hydrant in front
of the house for hours. Monday we had one fire 6 miles North of town that came within a mile of a chemical plant.
The worst part of all of this is the volunteer firemen who were injured. I used to get annoyed at all the news
reports of forest fires during fire season in the mountain states. I'm a little more sympathetic now that we have
fire bombers dropping on prairie fires. I never thought I'd see the day.

Joe Schneider
N8437R



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