How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

(Title intended to add a bit of levity to serious post.)

Soaring can kill you, but how do we put that risk into perspective?

A statistics based Mortality Calculator helped me do that. I answered a few questions about my medical profile and age and it told me that statistically I have a 19% chance of dieing in the next ten years from natural causes or from an accident of any kind. Say a 1 in 5 chance. (Sucks of course.) The calculator does not properly weight the fact that I'm a glider pilot, so how do I adjust for that?

It's obvious to me that my chances of dying in a glider are much much better than 1 in 5. So it is much much more likely that I will die of some other cause before I live long enough to die in a glider. Worrying about a glider accident is completely irrational (until I disregard the inherent dangers and start flying like an idiot.) Sure it could happen, but it is much more likely to die from something else. And as I get older, the odds of dying in a glider continue to drop.

An article about the mortality calculator. http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...-on-death.html

The calculator http://eprognosis.ucsf.edu/

On Monday, January 13, 2014 6:55:05 AM UTC-6, son_of_flubber wrote:
(Title intended to add a bit of levity to serious post.)



Soaring can kill you, but how do we put that risk into perspective?



A statistics based Mortality Calculator helped me do that. I answered a few questions about my medical profile and age and it told me that statistically I have a 19% chance of dieing in the next ten years from natural causes or from an accident of any kind. Say a 1 in 5 chance. (Sucks of course..) The calculator does not properly weight the fact that I'm a glider pilot, so how do I adjust for that?



It's obvious to me that my chances of dying in a glider are much much better than 1 in 5. So it is much much more likely that I will die of some other cause before I live long enough to die in a glider. Worrying about a glider accident is completely irrational (until I disregard the inherent dangers and start flying like an idiot.) Sure it could happen, but it is much more likely to die from something else. And as I get older, the odds of dying in a glider continue to drop.



An article about the mortality calculator. http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...-on-death.html



The calculator http://eprognosis.ucsf.edu/

"Worrying about a glider accident is completely irrational..."

You obviously haven't read the famous Gantenbrink article:
http://www.dg-flugzeugbau.de/safety-comes-first-e.html

Nobody decides to go out there and start "flying like an idiot" as you put it. Your thinking is flawed and dangerous in itself. When going to a contest or just to fly locally, I visualize myself driving in the opposite direction on the freeway, with my body and my glider intact and I vow to fly in a way to make that happen.
Herb

On 13/01/14 12:55, son_of_flubber wrote:
(Title intended to add a bit of levity to serious post.)

Soaring can kill you, but how do we put that risk into perspective?

A statistics based Mortality Calculator helped me do that. I answered a few questions about my medical profile and age and it told me that statistically I have a 19% chance of dieing in the next ten years from natural causes or from an accident of any kind. Say a 1 in 5 chance. (Sucks of course.) The calculator does not properly weight the fact that I'm a glider pilot, so how do I adjust for that?

It's obvious to me that my chances of dying in a glider are much much better than 1 in 5. So it is much much more likely that I will die of some other cause before I live long enough to die in a glider. Worrying about a glider accident is completely irrational (until I disregard the inherent dangers and start flying like an idiot.) Sure it could happen, but it is much more likely to die from something else. And as I get older, the odds of dying in a glider continue to drop.

An article about the mortality calculator. http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...-on-death.html

The calculator http://eprognosis.ucsf.edu/

A good way of measuring mortality is in terms of "micromorts",
a 1 in a million chance of dying.

For example, each hang-glider trip has a risk of 8 micromorts.
Living in the UK has risk of around 40 micromorts/day including
natural causes, or 1 micromort/day without.

FFI, see
http://understandinguncertainty.org/microlives
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micromort

On Monday, January 13, 2014 6:55:05 AM UTC-6, son_of_flubber wrote:

Soaring can kill you, but how do we put that risk into perspective?

A statistics based Mortality Calculator helped me do that. I answered a few questions about my medical profile and age and it told me that statistically I have a 19% chance of dieing in the next ten years from natural causes or from an accident of any kind. Say a 1 in 5 chance. (Sucks of course..) The calculator does not properly weight the fact that I'm a glider pilot, so how do I adjust for that?

It's obvious to me that my chances of dying in a glider are much much better than 1 in 5. So it is much much more likely that I will die of some other cause before I live long enough to die in a glider. Worrying about a glider accident is completely irrational (until I disregard the inherent dangers and start flying like an idiot.) Sure it could happen, but it is much more likely to die from something else. And as I get older, the odds of dying in a glider continue to drop.

An article about the mortality calculator. http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...-on-death.html

Bah. Your risk is exactly 50%. Either you die, or you don't.

And as others will surely point out - gliding is dangerous, way more so than the proverbial "drive to the airport".

So you better worry about dying in a glider accident - dude, it happens! A lot! And as you get older, you become even more dangerous.

Not trying to be alarmist, but there it is. I've had many friends die in glider accidents, mostly (all?) self-inflicted. All old, experienced pilots. Nobody dies in car accidents any more!

I suggest you stop trying to justify your risk via statistical mumbo-jumbo and concentrate on learning what the actual threat is and training yourself to recognize and defeat it.

It's a lot more fun, anyway...

(by the way...do you have a real name or did your parents really hate you?)

Cheers,

Kirk
66

So - who cares? We're all gonna die some day so why not just enjoy life
along the way?


"kirk.stant" wrote in message
...
On Monday, January 13, 2014 6:55:05 AM UTC-6, son_of_flubber wrote:

Soaring can kill you, but how do we put that risk into perspective?

A statistics based Mortality Calculator helped me do that. I answered a
few questions about my medical profile and age and it told me that
statistically I have a 19% chance of dieing in the next ten years from
natural causes or from an accident of any kind. Say a 1 in 5 chance.
(Sucks of course.) The calculator does not properly weight the fact that
I'm a glider pilot, so how do I adjust for that?

It's obvious to me that my chances of dying in a glider are much much
better than 1 in 5. So it is much much more likely that I will die of
some other cause before I live long enough to die in a glider. Worrying
about a glider accident is completely irrational (until I disregard the
inherent dangers and start flying like an idiot.) Sure it could happen,
but it is much more likely to die from something else. And as I get
older, the odds of dying in a glider continue to drop.

An article about the mortality calculator.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...-on-death.html

Bah. Your risk is exactly 50%. Either you die, or you don't.

And as others will surely point out - gliding is dangerous, way more so than
the proverbial "drive to the airport".

So you better worry about dying in a glider accident - dude, it happens! A
lot! And as you get older, you become even more dangerous.

Not trying to be alarmist, but there it is. I've had many friends die in
glider accidents, mostly (all?) self-inflicted. All old, experienced pilots.
Nobody dies in car accidents any more!

I suggest you stop trying to justify your risk via statistical mumbo-jumbo
and concentrate on learning what the actual threat is and training yourself
to recognize and defeat it.

It's a lot more fun, anyway...

(by the way...do you have a real name or did your parents really hate you?)

Cheers,

Kirk
66

(Title intended to add a bit of levity to serious post.)

Soaring can kill you, but how do we put that risk into perspective?

A statistics based Mortality Calculator helped me do that.

Snip...

...Worrying about a
glider accident is completely irrational (until I disregard the inherent
dangers and start flying like an idiot.) Sure it could happen, but it is
much more likely to die from something else. And as I get older, the odds
of dying in a glider continue to drop.

Here's how *I* put soaring risk into perspective...more accurately, here's how
I put *any* activity's risk into a perspective that works for me, whether
using a sawzall, driving, washing dishes while standing on a skateboard or
whatever...

Risk assessment begins with recognizing risk exists (duh), then defining the
amount of risk (life threatening, limb threatening, get the crap beat out of
me threatening, legal, etc.).

My next step is deciding how I'm going to "inoculate myself" against the risk.
In broadest brush terms, my self-inoculation consists of two elements: 1)
skills education (e.g. flight training, practice, etc.); & 2) awareness
education (e.g. statistical assessment attempts, reading accident reports,
mental assessment, etc.).

One without the other is pretty hopeless...think (say) boxing with one hand
tied behind your back...or entering a gunfight with only a knife in hand.

Most of us have seen pilots who seem to think being a good/safe pilot is
almost entirely a matter of racking up documentable skills (ratings, etc.).
IMO, skills w/o tempering judgment is scary. Gaining mechanical skills before
or without also gaining a sense that those skills now provide new chances to
kill or injure yourself is equivalent to NOT being smart enough to know you're
dangerous. Think 3-year-old.

So skills without judgment is a non-starter IMO.

As for judgement w/o skills, think trying to teach welding solely on the basis
of book knowledge...perhaps theoretically possible, but definitely a much
tougher task than teaching it after also getting some hands-on practice.
Personally, I'd rather learn welding from an "ivory-tower book master" than a
partially ignorant self-taught dude with UV-induced cataracts and perpetual
sunburn, but that's just me...point being, that risk awareness and
amelioration matters (very much!) to me. That's another way of saying I
probably weight it as MORE important than "mere" skills.

Eventually my thought process evolved to: a) soaring contains sufficient
energy to kill me...every single time I engage in the activity, therefore; b)
it is NOT irrational for me to worry about having a glider accident (even if I
choose to ignore money and embarrassment as additional risk factors); c) most
every general aviation accident report I've read, most every airport incident
and accident I've seen, most every "Oh ****!" moment I've had as a pilot and
motor vehicle operator, have had operator stupidity (e.g. inattention to the
primary task at hand, improper assessment of my own
skills/risks/energies-operating when I step across the "in-control boundary,"
etc.) as a (often, THE) major contributor; and d) the human condition rules
out perfection as an option.

So what to do?

For a long time now (decades), my "self-inoculation" has been a serious
attempt to never - and I mean NEVER - have out of my mind that what I'm doing
as a pilot (or driver, or sawzall operator or whatever) can permanently,
"instantly," and easily fatally change my life for the seriously,
irremedially, worse. (I don't fear death, I simply don't wish it to happen
prematurely in a forestallable-via-education-and-skills sense...because life
is so much fun!) That ever-present awareness of my mortality and the
activity's risks I hope (and expect) will combine to greatly weight the odds
*toward* dying a natural, biological death rather than a physically traumatic,
self-inflicted one, because from the continual awareness should - I hope -
flow unremitting skills-based efforts to properly and safely deal with the
physical risks.

In soaring, lack of skills alone can kill. Inattention alone can kill. In
combination, I believe they're exponentially deadly. Ignorance can kill.
Margin-thinning greatly raises risks, or at least the statistically probable
effects of said risks in the event of something undesired entering the
picture. There are LOTS of life-threatening soaring risks, and a great many
more scenario-based ones all capable of ending my life. That's not intended to
be hand-wavingly dramatic; it's merely a factual statement.

FWIW, I think that attempting to gain solace or an actionable sense of
soaring's risks from " a purely statistically-based assessment" of risks is
some combination of: ostrichian, potentially self-defeating, blinkered,
misguided, wrong-headed thought, etc., etc. That said, the simple fact that a
person is even *considering* such things, is a Great Thing in my book! I
believe that ultimately, such self-directed interest is much more likely to
lead that individual toward "the promised land of self-inoculation" than NOT
considering such things would be. But statistics alone is - I believe - a
woefully limited measure and assessment of soaring risk. (Hence, the
popularity of the statement that one's chances of dying on the next soaring
flight is 50%? Bring that up in your next statistics class and see what the
instructor has to say about it as a statistical measure, dry chuckle.)

Ultimately, one unarguable statistical measure of one's success (or not) will
be future NTSB reports. In any event...

Rotsa ruck (and have obscene amounts of fun along the way)!!!

Bob W.

Bob, do you actually go through that thought process before *any* activity
as implied? Think "analysis paralysis". Or maybe I misread an attempt to
put a wealth of knowledge and experience which now boils down to "gut
feeling" into words (probably a more accurate assessment).

I have never, and I mean NEVER, approached an aircraft with the thought that
I might die during this flight. If I felt that way, I wouldn't even get in.
On the other hand, after 41 years of flying (about 24 in gliders), I have
come to recognize that there many things well within my skill set that I
just don't do. I don't think, "This might just kill me", though I know at
some subcouscious level that it can. Instead I simply think, "Why - how
will this improve my flight?" and then simply don't bother.

Two glaring examples: The other day at the conclusion of a flight, I
thought of doing a giant barrel roll simply for the joy of seeing the world
upside down. But I didn't. I've done countless rolls in jets, props, and
gliders, and I simply don't "need" to do them any more (not to mention the
fact that aerobatics are prohibited by my flight manual). A few minutes
later a look at my state vector showed that I had just the right position
and altitude to fly a low pass over the hangars, ramp, and runway. Same
thought... "Why?" I don't care about impressing anyone on the ground and I
really don't need the rush any more. I haven't done either of those
meneuvers in over 15 years. Maybe that's why I'm an old fart now.

BTW, have you ever seen the occupants of an aircraft immediately after the
crash? It's enough to make you give up stupid tricks.


"BobW" wrote in message
...
(Title intended to add a bit of levity to serious post.)

Soaring can kill you, but how do we put that risk into perspective?

A statistics based Mortality Calculator helped me do that.

Snip...

...Worrying about a
glider accident is completely irrational (until I disregard the inherent
dangers and start flying like an idiot.) Sure it could happen, but it is
much more likely to die from something else. And as I get older, the
odds
of dying in a glider continue to drop.

Here's how *I* put soaring risk into perspective...more accurately, here's
how I put *any* activity's risk into a perspective that works for me,
whether using a sawzall, driving, washing dishes while standing on a
skateboard or whatever...

Risk assessment begins with recognizing risk exists (duh), then defining
the amount of risk (life threatening, limb threatening, get the crap beat
out of me threatening, legal, etc.).

My next step is deciding how I'm going to "inoculate myself" against the
risk. In broadest brush terms, my self-inoculation consists of two
elements: 1) skills education (e.g. flight training, practice, etc.); & 2)
awareness education (e.g. statistical assessment attempts, reading
accident reports, mental assessment, etc.).

One without the other is pretty hopeless...think (say) boxing with one
hand tied behind your back...or entering a gunfight with only a knife in
hand.

Most of us have seen pilots who seem to think being a good/safe pilot is
almost entirely a matter of racking up documentable skills (ratings,
etc.). IMO, skills w/o tempering judgment is scary. Gaining mechanical
skills before or without also gaining a sense that those skills now
provide new chances to kill or injure yourself is equivalent to NOT being
smart enough to know you're dangerous. Think 3-year-old.

So skills without judgment is a non-starter IMO.

As for judgement w/o skills, think trying to teach welding solely on the
basis of book knowledge...perhaps theoretically possible, but definitely a
much tougher task than teaching it after also getting some hands-on
practice. Personally, I'd rather learn welding from an "ivory-tower book
master" than a partially ignorant self-taught dude with UV-induced
cataracts and perpetual sunburn, but that's just me...point being, that
risk awareness and amelioration matters (very much!) to me. That's another
way of saying I probably weight it as MORE important than "mere" skills.

Eventually my thought process evolved to: a) soaring contains sufficient
energy to kill me...every single time I engage in the activity, therefore;
b) it is NOT irrational for me to worry about having a glider accident
(even if I choose to ignore money and embarrassment as additional risk
factors); c) most every general aviation accident report I've read, most
every airport incident and accident I've seen, most every "Oh ****!"
moment I've had as a pilot and motor vehicle operator, have had operator
stupidity (e.g. inattention to the primary task at hand, improper
assessment of my own skills/risks/energies-operating when I step across
the "in-control boundary," etc.) as a (often, THE) major contributor; and
d) the human condition rules out perfection as an option.

So what to do?

For a long time now (decades), my "self-inoculation" has been a serious
attempt to never - and I mean NEVER - have out of my mind that what I'm
doing as a pilot (or driver, or sawzall operator or whatever) can
permanently, "instantly," and easily fatally change my life for the
seriously, irremedially, worse. (I don't fear death, I simply don't wish
it to happen prematurely in a forestallable-via-education-and-skills
sense...because life is so much fun!) That ever-present awareness of my
mortality and the activity's risks I hope (and expect) will combine to
greatly weight the odds *toward* dying a natural, biological death rather
than a physically traumatic, self-inflicted one, because from the
continual awareness should - I hope - flow unremitting skills-based
efforts to properly and safely deal with the physical risks.

In soaring, lack of skills alone can kill. Inattention alone can kill. In
combination, I believe they're exponentially deadly. Ignorance can kill.
Margin-thinning greatly raises risks, or at least the statistically
probable effects of said risks in the event of something undesired
entering the picture. There are LOTS of life-threatening soaring risks,
and a great many more scenario-based ones all capable of ending my life.
That's not intended to be hand-wavingly dramatic; it's merely a factual
statement.

FWIW, I think that attempting to gain solace or an actionable sense of
soaring's risks from " a purely statistically-based assessment" of risks
is some combination of: ostrichian, potentially self-defeating, blinkered,
misguided, wrong-headed thought, etc., etc. That said, the simple fact
that a person is even *considering* such things, is a Great Thing in my
book! I believe that ultimately, such self-directed interest is much more
likely to lead that individual toward "the promised land of
self-inoculation" than NOT considering such things would be. But
statistics alone is - I believe - a woefully limited measure and
assessment of soaring risk. (Hence, the popularity of the statement that
one's chances of dying on the next soaring flight is 50%? Bring that up in
your next statistics class and see what the instructor has to say about it
as a statistical measure, dry chuckle.)

Ultimately, one unarguable statistical measure of one's success (or not)
will be future NTSB reports. In any event...

Rotsa ruck (and have obscene amounts of fun along the way)!!!

Bob W.

On 1/14/2014 9:59 AM, Dan Marotta wrote:
Bob, do you actually go through that (prolix, snipped) thought process
before *any* activity as implied? Think "analysis paralysis".

Good question...

Insofar as soaring specifically is concerned, WRT "analysis paralysis" I guess
I'd suggest several thousand hours of glider time "by definition" rules that
out. :-) But I understand your question. I'll admit to once or twice actually
thinking consciously prior to some flights that
stupidity/forgetfulness/thinning-of-margins/new-situations could get me killed
THIS flight, and - no - the conscious thought isn't a deterrent. Landing
patterns and takeoffs also fairly routinely trigger active such "Get this
wrong and die," thoughts in my mind, too. But most of the thinking occurred
after flights (personal remembrances, reliving, etc.), after reading accident
reports, daydreaming about soaring, etc. But there's been enough OF such
conscious, more or less analytical, thinking to have burned it into my
conscious, subconscious and fundamental approach to the silly sport. There's
also been many a gliderport-based bull session comparing notes with other
pilots about great flights, and dumb decision-making, plus "the usual"
0-beer-thirty type situations in which the topics of thought patterns and
decision-making have come up, often with humorous bonhomie along the lines of
"What were you *thinking?"* and "Here's how *I* think about such things..."
back and forth. I'm sure you've many hours of the same.

Or maybe I misread an attempt to put a wealth of knowledge and experience
which now boils down to "gut feeling" into words (probably a more accurate
assessment).

How does one get a gut feel? How does one refine a gut feel to reflect
ever-increasing knowledge? Being something of an analytical kind of thinker,
mine evolves largely from knowledge intake (reading, directed brain-picking,
listening, etc.) and active - and probably sleep-based - consideration.


I have never, and I mean NEVER, approached an aircraft with the thought
that I might die during this flight. If I felt that way, I wouldn't even
get in.

Everyone's different (duh!), but other activities beyond soaring I can think
of off the top of my head, where I've thought actively beforehand I might
die/suffer permanent injury from participation, have included
boulder-scrambling, driving, operating machinery (farm, machine tools), using
ladders, mixing chemicals, doing 120VAC wiring, enjoying lightning outdoors (I
always keep or post a good lookout, ha ha!) and undoubtedly others that
additional reflection would resurrect.

On the other hand, after 41 years of flying (about 24 in gliders), I have
come to recognize that there many things well within my skill set that I
just don't do. I don't think, "This might just kill me", though I know at
some subcouscious level that it can. Instead I simply think, "Why - how
will this improve my flight?" and then simply don't bother.

Two glaring examples: The other day at the conclusion of a flight, I
thought of doing a giant barrel roll simply for the joy of seeing the world
upside down. But I didn't. I've done countless rolls in jets, props, and
gliders, and I simply don't "need" to do them any more (not to mention the
fact that aerobatics are prohibited by my flight manual). A few minutes
later a look at my state vector showed that I had just the right position
and altitude to fly a low pass over the hangars, ramp, and runway. Same
thought... "Why?" I don't care about impressing anyone on the ground and
I really don't need the rush any more. I haven't done either of those
meneuvers in over 15 years. Maybe that's why I'm an old fart now.

"Roger that," and BTDT!" My "need for zoomies" lasted maybe 2 soaring seasons
once I felt I'd gained the requisite skills and knowledge to do 'em with (as I
defined it then) "reasonable safety." Likewise, closeness to mountainous
terrain as a goal in and of itself evolved pretty rapidly (dry chuckle). My
motivation has always been to live to participate another day, with the same
equipment, because life is so much fun!


BTW, have you ever seen the occupants of an aircraft immediately after the
crash? It's enough to make you give up stupid tricks.

Just in pictures and my imagination...and both are more than enough, thank
you. Hey! Maybe a vivid imagination is strongly correlated to pilot longevity?

Bob - not OBVIOUSLY anal? - W.

Just in pictures and my imagination...and both are more than enough, thank
you. Hey! Maybe a vivid imagination is strongly correlated to pilot longevity?

Bob - not OBVIOUSLY anal? - W.



Hah! Exactly. Those that know me have heard me say that anyone who
continues to ride a motorcycle on the street past the age of 30 is
suffering from a serious lack of imagination.


WB (who still has dreams about carving mountain roads on his cafe bike,
even after not riding for the past 30 years).

--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ---

On Tue, 14 Jan 2014 11:53:25 -0700, Bob Whelan
wrote:


Just in pictures and my imagination...and both are more than enough, thank
you. Hey! Maybe a vivid imagination is strongly correlated to pilot longevity?

And it is not conducive to a productive career as a submarine
sailor...