A aviation & planes forum. AviationBanter

If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

Go Back   Home » AviationBanter forum » rec.aviation newsgroups » Soaring
Site Map Home Register Authors List Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read Web Partners

Gliding risk....



 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #71  
Old November 7th 19, 12:40 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Ramy[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 601
Default Gliding risk....

I think the dilemma each cross country and contest pilot has to deal with every now and then is how much lowering the margins is acceptable. Whether we willing to admit it or not, we all lowering our margins and increasing risk every now and then to prevent a guaranteed landout. I believe this what happened to Bruce. When everything goes great and we cruise at 17K we don’t need to track landout options since there are plenty in glide , even in the western deserts. As we get lower we start tracking landout options along the intended course line. As we get further lower we start picking the best landout option. The real problem start when we finding enough lift or indication of lift further ahead and need to decide between staying within safe glide of the last good option we just past in dead air and pretty much guarantee a landout and possible a long painful retrieve, or keep pushing into what we believe is better air while lowering the margin or switching over to some unknown and potential problematic fields, but under nice looking Cu/ circling birds/ gliders/dust devil etc. So while we increase the risk of damage or difficult retrieve, we reduce the chance of landout as we heading into lift. Most of the time this works but once in a while it doesn’t. The hard limit in my opinion is to always have in glide at least something that looks reasonably landable and preferably in the database, while trying to never get to a situation in which a low save will not just save your flight but will also save your life. don’t get into a tunnel vision where the only option you can think of is keep going into the unknown hoping you’ll find something better. We actually had a webinar on this subject recently.

Ramy
  #72  
Old November 7th 19, 01:06 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 2,124
Default Gliding risk....

On Wednesday, November 6, 2019 at 6:40:32 PM UTC-5, Ramy wrote:
I think the dilemma each cross country and contest pilot has to deal with every now and then is how much lowering the margins is acceptable. Whether we willing to admit it or not, we all lowering our margins and increasing risk every now and then to prevent a guaranteed landout. I believe this what happened to Bruce. When everything goes great and we cruise at 17K we don’t need to track landout options since there are plenty in glide , even in the western deserts. As we get lower we start tracking landout options along the intended course line. As we get further lower we start picking the best landout option. The real problem start when we finding enough lift or indication of lift further ahead and need to decide between staying within safe glide of the last good option we just past in dead air and pretty much guarantee a landout and possible a long painful retrieve, or keep pushing into what we believe is better air while lowering the margin or switching over to some unknown and potential problematic fields, but under nice looking Cu/ circling birds/ gliders/dust devil etc. So while we increase the risk of damage or difficult retrieve, we reduce the chance of landout as we heading into lift. Most of the time this works but once in a while it doesn’t. The hard limit in my opinion is to always have in glide at least something that looks reasonably landable and preferably in the database, while trying to never get to a situation in which a low save will not just save your flight but will also save your life. don’t get into a tunnel vision where the only option you can think of is keep going into the unknown hoping you’ll find something better. We actually had a webinar on this subject recently.

Ramy


I have observed that, over time, people dip into the margins they were taught. They become comfortable with the new lower margin.
Then they slip a bit more.
Eventually they either figure out they are going too far, somebody calls them out, or they scare themselves or even crash.
I regularly observe contest pilots flying low patterns. If I see a pilot doing this regularly, I know too low is their normal. I'll have a talk and explain what I'm seeing and why I'm concerned. Without exception they are appreciative of my taking the time to raise a warning flag. Most can later be seen to be flying more safely. Over the years, two did not take the suggestion to heart and had low pattern accidents. My success rate so far is about 90%.
I've also called pilots circling low and asked them to give up and land. I have offered to buy their next tow.
Peer pressure and constructive intervention can be a useful safety tool.
FWIW
UH
  #73  
Old November 7th 19, 01:48 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Dave Nadler
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 1,610
Default Gliding risk....

On Wednesday, November 6, 2019 at 7:06:04 PM UTC-5, wrote:
I have observed that, over time, people dip into the margins they were taught.
They become comfortable with the new lower margin.
Then they slip a bit more.


Yep, "normalization of deviance".
We lost a space shuttle this way.

Eventually they either figure out they are going too far,
somebody calls them out, or they scare themselves or even crash.


Or worse, they don't scare themselves, become "experts",
and encourage others to lower their margins. Then call them wimps
if they don't.

Thanks Hank!
  #74  
Old November 7th 19, 02:33 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 2
Default Gliding risk....

On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 9:54:26 PM UTC-4, wrote:
I quit reading when the data presented listed motorcycling safer than ‘gliding’. By 100%.
Hmmm.....don’t think so.
R


Since 1980ies motorcycle fatalities have increased 20x!!! These and open cockpit high CG ATVs have become the redneck population control method. States still allow these Neanderthals to ride without helmets. Now motocross, an entire whole another story, few fatalities, break every long bone, but you are in control and not at the mercy of some 20/400 vision Buick/Caddy driving nonagenarian cleared by his ophthalmologist.
  #75  
Old November 8th 19, 04:22 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
2G
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 1,439
Default Gliding risk....

On Tuesday, November 5, 2019 at 11:24:12 AM UTC-8, wrote:
With apologies for lack of context:
This is one of the DUMBEST threads I have followed


Not dumb. Thought provoking. Anyone who hasn't considered the risks of soaring is in denial.

I grew up hearing my father repeat the mantra that "the most dangerous part of soaring is driving to and from the airport." He was killed in a glider crash 15 years after I soloed. Six years later, my best friend died in another crash. I’ve known 16 other casualties, plus more I never met. Last Friday, I attended the wake of #18, a good pilot about my age who was careful and controlled.

I'm SO past the "he died doing what he loved" thing. It's probably true in many cases but the pilots are still dead, leaving families and friends. And if a missing man formation makes you feel better, great, but it does nothing to bring back someone you loved or treasured as a friend.

I also knew two guys who were killed in motorcycle crashes during this time (54 years), although I have no idea how many of my friends/acquaintances ride vs. fly. I recall only one person I met who was killed in a car crash.. I think comparing the risks of different activities is useful. But obviously we're not all making decisions based on minimizing risk.

There are ways to reduce the risk even in competition, which I think is probably riskier than doing rides around the gliderport. Eight of "my" 18 died at contests (44%) with another five arguably practicing for it. All were experienced, mature, high-time pilots. Medical factors may have been a factor in at least four cases but often it’s tough to make that call, although sometimes we’re tempted because it makes us feel better about the genuine risks we incur.

The safest thing is not flying at all. I’ve considered that. I’ve been away from soaring three times for multi-year periods (unrelated to risk) and come back every time after considering the pro’s and con’s. I still love soaring but the risk is always there. I’ve never been cavalier about the danger but I’m probably more careful now than I was 50 years ago. I think our community addresses safety much better than in the past. But--I concede that if soaring were 100% risk free (a la Condor, which I enjoy), it wouldn’t be as compelling. Cognitive dissonance is a wonderful thing!

Chip Bearden
JB


Chip,

That would be nice if that was the intent of this thread, but it isn't. It is entirely about making you feel anxious about flying. I don't particularly care whether flying is more or less dangerous than motorcycle riding because I don't ride motorcycles. And, even if I did, how would that make me be a safer pilot? I gave up flying in site contests (OLC is different) because I was almost killed in one, and decided the benefit didn't justify the risk. Some pilots become very aggressive while flying in a contest.

Tom
  #76  
Old November 8th 19, 04:58 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 478
Default Gliding risk....

On Thursday, November 7, 2019 at 8:33:41 AM UTC-5, wrote:
On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 9:54:26 PM UTC-4, wrote:
I quit reading when the data presented listed motorcycling safer than ‘gliding’. By 100%.
Hmmm.....don’t think so.
R


Since 1980ies motorcycle fatalities have increased 20x!!! These and open cockpit high CG ATVs have become the redneck population control method. States still allow these Neanderthals to ride without helmets. Now motocross, an entire whole another story, few fatalities, break every long bone, but you are in control and not at the mercy of some 20/400 vision Buick/Caddy driving nonagenarian cleared by his ophthalmologist.


It ain't rednecks dying. The motorcycle fatality increase is from yuppies and boomers getting their first bike, a Harley of course, in middle age. Motocross kids do OK, banged up no worse than playing high school football.
  #77  
Old November 8th 19, 05:21 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 15
Default Gliding risk....

I grew up racing motocross in Michigan, no learning in an ASK21 in CAPat age 60..
But motocross has fatalities, tracks are much more technical and the the bikes are phenomenal. Speed is way up

https://thumpertalk.com/forums/topic...-in-motocross/
  #78  
Old November 8th 19, 07:02 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 580
Default Gliding risk....

On Thursday, November 7, 2019 at 10:22:48 PM UTC-5, 2G wrote:

That would be nice if that was the intent of this thread, but it isn't. It is entirely about making you feel anxious about flying. I don't particularly care whether flying is more or less dangerous than motorcycle riding because I don't ride motorcycles. And, even if I did, how would that make me be a safer pilot? I gave up flying in site contests (OLC is different) because I was almost killed in one, and decided the benefit didn't justify the risk. Some pilots become very aggressive while flying in a contest.

Tom


Tom,

I wouldn't ordinarily get involved in tussling with you on something like this but since I used one of your posts as my entree, I'll make an exception..

None of us really knows what the true intent of the thread was because we're not the original poster. But the way I read it, he had two points. First, people tend to ignore the risks of things they want to do so they won't stress about them. Second, the risks of soaring are higher than many of us want to admit.

It doesn't necessarily follow that the OP wanted us to "feel anxious about flying." That's your interpretation. I like to think he wanted us to make intelligent, reasoned choices based on the facts. This thread has helped in that regard. "Anxious" is defined as "experiencing worry, unease, or nervousness." Yup. I'm nervous at times when I fly. Sometimes I'm uneasy. I never take flying for granted. I still fly because I love it even though I know it's more risky than flying Condor or driving to the theater.

It's often easier for us to understand risk using benchmarks and comparisons. As many have said, the least risky thing is to stay home--but even that's not risk-free. Comparing the risk of soaring to other activities and to simply getting older can help us understand and weigh the risk of flying. That's useful.

I disagree that understanding the risks of soaring won't make us better pilots. Knowing I could get killed any number of ways in a glider has helped me be a safer pilot. The risks I'm willing to tolerate might be different than for other pilots and certainly non-pilots.

For example, you've chosen to restrict yourself to certain types of soaring based on your personal knowledge of the risks of contest flying. If you did fly a contest, I suspect you'd be anxious. If someone approached me about flying their first contest, I'd want them to understand the risks, which I agree are higher than just flying cross country and certainly higher than doing rides around the airport.

Chip Bearden
JB
  #80  
Old November 8th 19, 11:18 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 380
Default Gliding risk....

Chip
I heard a really useful axiom awhile back. It was in an interview of one of the founding engineers of the X-plane/X15 program. When questioned about the differences between the approach they took during those heated-space/aviation race days of the cold war and the more cerebral go slow pace of later test flying. This guy called what they did earlier as “Educated Courage”, meaning, yes they were involved in risky business but they entered those risks thoughtfully with preparation and built in contingencies.

It does take a level of courage needed in the pursuit of certain goals, in our case that being xc or contest flying. Without courage and just operating from “thoughtfulness” and a guy could consider venturing off anywhere beyond gliding distance of home as foolhardy. Or flying in a gaggle with 10 other guys all flying within a few hundred feet of each other sounds like a recipe for trouble. But when thoughtful preparation, common sense precautions and contingencies are joined up with a measure of courage, great things, enjoyment, and accomplishment can result.

I have gone thru my big dollar high performance phase of soaring, but have jumped into a different pond of challenge, namely, trying to do great things in low performance machines. In order to do this, I have to ask things of my bird and my own abilities way beyond the norm, not having the L/D to get me free of trouble areas etc. As a result, it takes gobbs of courage, just ask Daniel Sazhin or Ron Schwartz who ran the ridges in their
1-26’s to put up some of the first few 1000k 1-26 flights. Without courage they could never have even gotten started.
But given the need for courage, what comes along with it is the need for a whole bunch of Thoughtfulness. Read study, knowledge gained from numerous failed attempts, having well defined and adhered-to personal minimums. I spend way more energy and flight time working on the skills needed to safely stretch into this challenging low performance flying than I do one the record attempts. In my case it involves lots and lots of low level and weak wx flying, and very short small off field landing simulation. This is all done to perfect and sharpen my skills, skills that are essential for reaching my goals. In three years of pursuing low performance records, I have made over 20 off field landings. Not airports or grass strips, but actual farm fields, roads, unoccupied parking lots etc. Have I learned things? Absolutely. Was I ever scared, absolutely not. Concerned? Yes, but never fearing for life or limb. In it all I have not hurt my bird in any way, a few scraps on the fusalage bottom is all.

Put the package together and you can have success without falling either into the “chicken little” syndrome or the other end of the spectrum, namely foolhardy confidence.

FWIW
Dan
 




Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
YOUR safety is at risk BR549 Instrument Flight Rules 0 December 13th 07 01:21 AM
At risk of starting a religious war. Bruce Soaring 14 August 20th 07 08:41 AM
NGA US navigational data at risk? Doug Vetter Piloting 16 April 19th 07 01:46 AM
Safety at risk in FAA Peterpan Piloting 7 February 24th 05 09:58 PM
U.S. SCHOOLKIDS AT RISK Cribsheet Piloting 0 December 5th 04 06:29 PM


All times are GMT +1. The time now is 06:28 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2004-2024 AviationBanter.
The comments are property of their posters.