A aviation & planes forum. AviationBanter

If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

Go Back   Home » AviationBanter forum » rec.aviation newsgroups » Owning
Site Map Home Register Authors List Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read Web Partners

# of Aircraft Club Members - Math Formula Wanted



 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old September 15th 04, 01:58 AM
Rich
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default # of Aircraft Club Members - Math Formula Wanted

Hello,

I'm looking into different shared ownership arrangements, including
clubs, fractionals and partnerships.

I once spoke to a flying club member who said that the availability of
their club aircraft improved with 30 members and three aircraft
compared with 15 members and only two aircraft.

Is there any kind of mathematical formula that could take into account
the number of aircraft, the number of pilots, and predict what the
average aircraft availability would be? I imagine that fractional
companies must rely on something like this to help them decide how
many shares of an aircraft they can sell, and still keep their
availability promises.

Richard
  #2  
Old September 15th 04, 05:10 AM
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default


On 14-Sep-2004, (Rich) wrote:

Is there any kind of mathematical formula that could take into account
the number of aircraft, the number of pilots, and predict what the
average aircraft availability would be?



I'm not really a mathematician, but I am familiar with this type of
analysis. The analysis will be very complex if different airplane types are
involved, but if they are all the same (or are all equally acceptable for
all uses) the analysis isn't too bad. The variables that would then be
pertinent would be:

- Number of pilots involved OR number of airplanes involved (you have to
know one to determine the other, of course).

- Average number of hours of use that each pilot will want on the busiest
day of the week (typically Sat. or Sun. in most clubs), and number of "prime
time" hours in that day. Note that the term "hours of use" refers to the
number of hours the plane is checked out (and thus unavailable to others),
not number of flight hours.

- Average number of hours each airplane will be unavailable (due to
maintenance or other issues) during the busiest day of the week.

- Tolerable likelihood of being unable to book an airplane when desired.
(e.g. it may be tolerable that, if you want to book at a particular time on
the busiest day of the week, you will be disappointed 10% of the time.)

If we assume demand for aircraft hours of use has what is called a "Puissant
distribution" (not perfectly accurate, but probably close enough) then we
can use Erlang-like calculation to find the answer, given values for all the
variables.

Here's an example. Let's say that we have 20 pilots who, on average, want
to check out a plane for 1 hour out of a 16 prime-time hour "busiest day" of
the week. (Of course, some will want more, and many will want none on any
given day. The 1 hour is an average.) It is predicted that each airplane
will be "down" an average of 1 hour during the same period. (This is
derived from a more understandable 1 in 16 probability that a given plane
will be "down" during that whole 16 hour period.) Finally, we decide that
it will be acceptable that there is a 10% probability that a given desire
for use during that period will be unmet. How many planes are required? My
Erlang calculator program suggests that the number is 4.

An Erlang calculator is available on he Web at
http://www.erlang.com/calculator/erlb/ If anybody is interested, I can
suggest a formula for deriving the variables to insert into this calculator
based upon the variables I describe above.

Of course, somebody may have a more appropriate calculator or algorithm for
performing this analysis.

--
-Elliott Drucker
  #4  
Old September 16th 04, 04:08 PM
Rich
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Wow! Thanks Elliot, this is exactly the sort of information I was
looking for.

I know I cannot expect to calculate an exact number, but averages and
probabilities will be just fine for the type of analysis I want to do.

Many thanks!

Richard
 




Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Homebuilt Aircraft Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) Ron Wanttaja Home Built 2 February 3rd 04 12:41 AM
Homebuilt Aircraft Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) Ron Wanttaja Home Built 1 January 2nd 04 10:02 PM
Homebuilt Aircraft Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) Ron Wanttaja Home Built 0 October 2nd 03 03:07 AM
Homebuilt Aircraft Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) Ron Wanttaja Home Built 4 August 7th 03 05:12 AM
Homebuilt Aircraft Frequently-Asked Questions (FAQ) Ron Wanttaja Home Built 0 July 4th 03 04:50 PM


All times are GMT +1. The time now is 01:59 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright ©2004-2024 AviationBanter.
The comments are property of their posters.