Problematic medical for potential new student?

So, after a few years of putting it off (actually..."after a few years of
saving enough $$$"), I decided I want to get a private pilot cert.
Welllll...from the time that I first wanted to do that (about 10 years ago)
until now, I've had some changes in my medical status, which will
*definitely* require a waiver. The question to the group is, what are my
chances? In other words, I don't want to go through the hassle of getting
all my records together if there's not much of a chance I will receive the
waiver. On the other hand, if people think that the waiver is probable,
what steps should I take? Should I get the records together first and then
take the medical? See, I don't want to even start taking instruction (and
spend the $$) if there's not much of a chance that I'll be able to get the
cert...

In a nutshell:
31 year old otherwise healthy male (6'3" 190 lbs).

1998 or so, taken to the hospital due to an anxiety attack (severe heartburn
thought to be a heart attack that snowballed). Nothing serious, haven't had
one since...
12/00 - DUI
10/01, 02/02 - Hospitalizations for situational depression. (1 week each
time) Was prescribed Paxil at the time (see below)
08/02 - Over night observation hospitalization for slip-and-fall with loss
of conciousness. All tests (CT, Xray) negative, no residual effects
apparant.

Since about 1994 or so, I have been diagnosed with osteoarthritis in my
knees. I have taken everything from Advil to Vioxx for relief (see below)

In early 2003, I was taken off the Paxil by my GP, showing no signs of
depression.

Now, within the past year or so, I started getting severe headaches. Note:
I have NOT seen a neurologist; but these headaches have been diagnosed by my
GP as migraine (with aura, by the way, so I actually know about 10 minutes
before they occur). At their peak they were occurring about 4-5 times a
month. This was also about the time that my GP put me on the COX-2
Inhibitor class of drugs (Vioxx/Bextra/Celebrex) for my knees. We were
playing "musical chairs" with the drugs to try to find the best acting drug
(none of them seemed to be particularly effective). This was due to..

Fatty liver diagnosis. I need to stay away from Tylenol and alcohol...

Anyway, back to the migraines. I was NOT put on any prophylactic for the
migranes, but prescribed a triptan for treating the attacks (specifically
Relpax).

About February of this year, my GP put my on Daypro (NSAID class) for my
knees and took me off the COX-2s. Since then (actually about 2 weeks
later), my migraines have stopped occurring...I have not required a dosage
of Relpax. Now I am beginning to wonder if it was actually the COX-2 drugs
that were partially responsible for the migraines.

So currently, my medical status is:

1) Fatty liver: Stay away from products containing Acetomenaphin , and also
alcohol.
2) Borderline high cholestorol: My GP wants me on Lipitor, but due to the
liver side effects I am wary. I have not started taking the drug, but am
first trying to lower it through diet and exercise
3) History of migraines. Controlled by acute intervention medications. No
attack in the past four months, could be related to the drug switching.
4) Osteoarthritis in the knees. Controlled by Daypro with no discernable
side effects except upset stomach if I don't take it with food.


What do y'all think, is it possible, or just a pipe dream?

Thanks...