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#1
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A disturbing statistic
I've had many non-pilot friends and co-workers ask, "Is flying a small plane
more or less dangerous than driving a car?", to which my response has always been "It depends on who is piloting the plane." However, in order to get a firmer answer from a statistical standpoint on this question, I decided to do a little homework: According to the DOT, the 2005 automobile fatality accident rate is: 1.47 fatalities per 100 million miles traveled (see http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/) According to the 2005 Nall Report, the general aviation fatality accident rate is: 1.2 fatalities per 100,000 flight hours (see http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/nall.html) In order to compare these two statistics, we obviously need to assume an average velocity for either automobiles or GA aircraft. If we assume an average GA aircraft velocity of 150 mph, then the aviation accident statistic becomes 1.2 fatalities per 15 million miles. Thus, based on the above, it appears that the GA fatality rate is somewhere around 7 times that of automobiles. Now I realize that one could fudge the average GA aircraft velocity velocity up or down, but I'm farily confident that it's not above 200 mph, nor below 100 mph, which brakets the aviation fatality rate between 5 and 10 times that of driving. A sobering thought... Comments? -- Dane |
#2
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A disturbing statistic
Here's a thought exercise that will get you in touch with this data.
1) How many people do you personally know that have been wiped out in airplanes? (my answer--quite a few; way too many) 2) How many people do you personally know that have been wiped out in car accidents? (my answer--have to struggle to remember more than a couple, one of whom was ironically a pilot) 3) How many more people do you know who drive than fly? (personal answer: Many X) Might be more useful to compare flying to those who ride motorcycles. Bill Hale Still ducking the bullet Dane Spearing wrote: I've had many non-pilot friends and co-workers ask, "Is flying a small plane more or less dangerous than driving a car?", to which my response has always been "It depends on who is piloting the plane." However, in order to get a firmer answer from a statistical standpoint on this question, I decided to do a little homework: According to the DOT, the 2005 automobile fatality accident rate is: 1.47 fatalities per 100 million miles traveled (see http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/) According to the 2005 Nall Report, the general aviation fatality accident rate is: 1.2 fatalities per 100,000 flight hours (see http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/nall.html) In order to compare these two statistics, we obviously need to assume an average velocity for either automobiles or GA aircraft. If we assume an average GA aircraft velocity of 150 mph, then the aviation accident statistic becomes 1.2 fatalities per 15 million miles. Thus, based on the above, it appears that the GA fatality rate is somewhere around 7 times that of automobiles. Now I realize that one could fudge the average GA aircraft velocity velocity up or down, but I'm farily confident that it's not above 200 mph, nor below 100 mph, which brakets the aviation fatality rate between 5 and 10 times that of driving. A sobering thought... Comments? -- Dane |
#3
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A disturbing statistic
On 30 Oct 2006 16:34:15 -0800, "Bill" wrote:
Here's a thought exercise that will get you in touch with this data. 1) How many people do you personally know that have been wiped out in airplanes? (my answer--quite a few; way too many) A few. I can only think of two that I knew personally. 2) How many people do you personally know that have been wiped out in car accidents? (my answer--have to struggle to remember more than a couple, one of whom was ironically a pilot) A bunch. I'd have to stretch my memory, but I can think of about 10 right now and about half of them were in the last 15 years. 3) How many more people do you know who drive than fly? (personal answer: Many X) Personally I know about 30 pilots. I know of about 70 locally. We have about 50,000 drivers in the immediate area. Might be more useful to compare flying to those who ride motorcycles. When I got to the point I thought I knew what I was doing I sold mine. Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member) (N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair) www.rogerhalstead.com |
#4
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A disturbing statistic
"Bill" wrote: Here's a thought exercise that will get you in touch with this data. 1) How many people do you personally know that have been wiped out in airplanes? (my answer--quite a few; way too many) 2) How many people do you personally know that have been wiped out in car accidents? (my answer--have to struggle to remember more than a couple, one of whom was ironically a pilot) 3) How many more people do you know who drive than fly? (personal answer: Many X) Might be more useful to compare flying to those who ride motorcycles. Or ask yourself: how many celebrities can you name who have been killed in plane crashes vs. the number kiled in car crashes? In the former, quite a few; in the latter, just a couple. Now ask yourself: how much time do celebrities spend travelling in airplanes vs. the time spent in cars? -- Dan C172RG at BFM |
#5
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A disturbing statistic
Dan Luke wrote:
Or ask yourself: how many celebrities can you name who have been killed in plane crashes vs. the number kiled in car crashes? In the former, quite a few; in the latter, just a couple. Now ask yourself: how much time do celebrities spend travelling in airplanes vs. the time spent in cars? Light aircraft? Not very many. Biz jets? Quite a few. |
#6
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A disturbing statistic
"Sam Spade" wrote: Or ask yourself: how many celebrities can you name who have been killed in plane crashes vs. the number kiled in car crashes? In the former, quite a few; in the latter, just a couple. Now ask yourself: how much time do celebrities spend travelling in airplanes vs. the time spent in cars? Light aircraft? Not very many. Cory Lidle, Scott Crossfield, Game show host Peter Tomarken, vocalist Aaliyah, Mel Carnahan, Tony Lee Bettenhausen Jr., JFK Jr., John Denver, baseball player Jim Hardin, Art Scholl, Hale Boggs, Buddy Holly, Audie Murphy, Rocky Marciano, Jim "Gentleman" Reeves, Patsy Cline, Buddy Clark, Will Rogers & Wiley Post... and that's not including helicopters. Not many? Biz jets? Quite a few. -- Dan C172RG at BFM |
#7
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A disturbing statistic
Dan Luke wrote:
"Sam Spade" wrote: Or ask yourself: how many celebrities can you name who have been killed in plane crashes vs. the number kiled in car crashes? In the former, quite a few; in the latter, just a couple. Now ask yourself: how much time do celebrities spend travelling in airplanes vs. the time spent in cars? Light aircraft? Not very many. Cory Lidle, Scott Crossfield, Game show host Peter Tomarken, vocalist Aaliyah, Mel Carnahan, Tony Lee Bettenhausen Jr., JFK Jr., John Denver, baseball player Jim Hardin, Art Scholl, Hale Boggs, Buddy Holly, Audie Murphy, Rocky Marciano, Jim "Gentleman" Reeves, Patsy Cline, Buddy Clark, Will Rogers & Wiley Post... and that's not including helicopters. Not many? How many of those are dead? Some of those folks flew when biz jets were yet a dream. Nearly everyone in the *21st Century* in show biz who has the money uses biz jets, especially since fractional ownership came into being. High end turbine helicopters fit into the biz jet category. They are generally professionally flown. Much of the high-end rotorcraft stuff the Wall Street Barons use up and down the East River are flown by two crew members. |
#8
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A disturbing statistic
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#9
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A disturbing statistic
There are so many different ways to be got that I don't think one
can make this assertion. Avoiding scud running is a start. So is running out of fuel. Nobody plans to do these things. Incidentally, among more experienced pilots, most accidents are the result of judgement problems and not basic stick skills. Bill Hale Ron Lee wrote: .... worried. Plus I do not plan on making a mistake that is at the root of most flying fatalities...major pilot error. Ron Lee |
#10
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A disturbing statistic
"Dane Spearing" wrote in message
... Thus, based on the above, it appears that the GA fatality rate is somewhere around 7 times that of automobiles. Now I realize that one could fudge the average GA aircraft velocity velocity up or down, but I'm farily confident that it's not above 200 mph, nor below 100 mph, which brakets the aviation fatality rate between 5 and 10 times that of driving. A sobering thought... Yup. There've been many threads here on this topic, and (among people who do the research and the arithmetic) the conclusions have been in line with yours. Moreover, according to the Nall Report, personal (as opposed to commercial) GA flying has about twice the fatality rate of GA flying overall. On the other hand, instructional flight (solo and dual) has about half the fatality rate of GA overall (even though the most dangerous phases of flight--takeoff, landing, and low-altitude maneuvering--are presumably overrepresented in instructional flight). What that suggests is that flying simple planes, maintaining proficiency, and having conservative standards regarding weather adds up to a fatality rate that is only slightly greater than that of driving. --Gary |
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