Beat up / worn out Arrow valuation

Hi everyone,

I thought I'd throw this out for discussion and see what comes from
some of the experienced people on the list.

I'm helping out some at a local school. The owner of the school is a
REAL penny pincher. He scrimps and saves anywhere he can. He'd reuse
oil if he could (he already fights with the A&Ps about reusing old
spark plugs). But in the process, he's let his fleet go to hell --
and I mean REALLY to hell.

He's got what used to be a nice '78 Arrow PA28R-201. The plane is set
up nicely with ADF, DNE, Garmin 430, second Nav/COM, Autopilot, and
power trim. But he's let the interior go a bit -- I'd say a 7/10.
And the outside is crap -- at most a 5/10. Some TLC might bring that
up to 6 or 7/10 - - but it needs paint touch up to get that rating.

But the worst part is the engine. 100 hour time came up on the past
TBO engine and the A&P found one clyinder completely dead -- no
compression. He pulled the jug and found the side of the piston eaten
away, the rings torn loose, and a ton of scrap metal pieces in the
capture screen. WOOPS -- time for a rebuild. Problem is, Mr Stingy
not only hasn't taken care of his planes -- he hasn't been putting
away a nest egg (I guess he just thought that engine would go on
forever). So, he doesn't have the money to rebuild.

He's trying to sell the Arrow. But its kinda hard to sell a plane
with a dead engine. And there is a long list of little to medium
things that need to be fixed (like replacing a good deal of the front
gear which has a bunch of slop in it).

So, he obviously can't get what he'd like for the plane. The big
discussion in the shop area has been what the plane might be worth.
And whether it might be worth trying to pick up cheap and fix up.

Anybody out there like to hazard a guess on what it might be worth?
And would it be worth our time to pick it up, do the maint ourselves
(yes, we have A&Ps in the group), and keep or sell it??? I think
AOPA's VRef shows it worth about $60 or so, but we all feel that is
very high for this plane's condition.



Chuck

Chuck wrote:
But the worst part is the engine.

Actually, I think the best part is the engine. With a mid-time engine,
you've got a crap shoot. The bluebook/Vref/whatever says the plane is
worth $X, with the engine prorated for how many hours it's got on it.
Maybe it'll make it to TBO, maybe it won't. With a dead engine, you can
negotiate from a point of view that it needs a new engine right from the
start, and work that into the offering price.

I'd much rather buy a plane with a run-out engine and budget for an
immediate engine replacement/overhaul. That way at least you know what
you're getting.

I'd much rather buy a plane with a run-out engine and budget for an
immediate engine replacement/overhaul. That way at least you know what
you're getting.

Actually, from all the headaches I've read about here from owners who have
newly rebuilt or remanufactured engines, I think the best bet is a plane
with about 500 hours on it, all put on in the last 3 - 4 years.

Long enough for the owner to have worked out any bugs, and long enough to
have proven itself in the field.

I count myself lucky with our engine. (Rebuilt in 2002. No troubles --
knock on wood -- yet, after 500 hours...)
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

Hi Chuck,

As a recent Arrow buyer, I found the valuation tool from TAP to be much
better and more accurate than Vref from AOPA. Mostly because you could
build the avionics stack from make/model. Takes some extra time but I
found that the numbers produced seemed to more accurately reflect
reasonable prices (whatever a reasonable price is :-) ).

I'd bet this Arrow sits a long time before selling. I saw many that had
run out engines and are still on the market, even after price
reductions. Still, at the right price, I'm sure there is a buyer out
there looking for a project plane.


--
Jack Allison
PP-ASEL-IA Student
Arrow N2104T

"When once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the Earth
with your eyes turned skyward, for there you have been, and there
you will always long to return"
- Leonardo Da Vinci

(Remove the obvious from address to reply via e-mail)

there is no way this airplane is worth $60K... I think you left off the "K"
in your post..

A flyable Arrow maybe worth $50-60K

The engine alone is a $20-25K value to get it rebuilt.. there may be some
salvageable parts to the engine...

I'd offer $30K as is.. but would not go higher than $40K..

JMHO based on experience..
BT

"Chuck" wrote in message
...
Hi everyone,

I thought I'd throw this out for discussion and see what comes from
some of the experienced people on the list.

I'm helping out some at a local school. The owner of the school is a
REAL penny pincher. He scrimps and saves anywhere he can. He'd reuse
oil if he could (he already fights with the A&Ps about reusing old
spark plugs). But in the process, he's let his fleet go to hell --
and I mean REALLY to hell.

He's got what used to be a nice '78 Arrow PA28R-201. The plane is set
up nicely with ADF, DNE, Garmin 430, second Nav/COM, Autopilot, and
power trim. But he's let the interior go a bit -- I'd say a 7/10.
And the outside is crap -- at most a 5/10. Some TLC might bring that
up to 6 or 7/10 - - but it needs paint touch up to get that rating.

But the worst part is the engine. 100 hour time came up on the past
TBO engine and the A&P found one clyinder completely dead -- no
compression. He pulled the jug and found the side of the piston eaten
away, the rings torn loose, and a ton of scrap metal pieces in the
capture screen. WOOPS -- time for a rebuild. Problem is, Mr Stingy
not only hasn't taken care of his planes -- he hasn't been putting
away a nest egg (I guess he just thought that engine would go on
forever). So, he doesn't have the money to rebuild.

He's trying to sell the Arrow. But its kinda hard to sell a plane
with a dead engine. And there is a long list of little to medium
things that need to be fixed (like replacing a good deal of the front
gear which has a bunch of slop in it).

So, he obviously can't get what he'd like for the plane. The big
discussion in the shop area has been what the plane might be worth.
And whether it might be worth trying to pick up cheap and fix up.

Anybody out there like to hazard a guess on what it might be worth?
And would it be worth our time to pick it up, do the maint ourselves
(yes, we have A&Ps in the group), and keep or sell it??? I think
AOPA's VRef shows it worth about $60 or so, but we all feel that is
very high for this plane's condition.



Chuck

"Chuck" wrote in message
...
Hi everyone,

I thought I'd throw this out for discussion and see what comes from
some of the experienced people on the list.

I'm helping out some at a local school. The owner of the school is a
REAL penny pincher. He scrimps and saves anywhere he can. He'd reuse
oil if he could (he already fights with the A&Ps about reusing old
spark plugs). But in the process, he's let his fleet go to hell --
and I mean REALLY to hell.

He's got what used to be a nice '78 Arrow PA28R-201. The plane is set
up nicely with ADF, DNE, Garmin 430, second Nav/COM, Autopilot, and
power trim. But he's let the interior go a bit -- I'd say a 7/10.
And the outside is crap -- at most a 5/10. Some TLC might bring that
up to 6 or 7/10 - - but it needs paint touch up to get that rating.


We need to know total airframe hours. Also, your description of the
interior and paint does not match your numbers. I doubt the exterior is
even a 5. If there is more than a couple touch ups on a plane, I would
place it at a 5 at best. Your guy has not done the touch ups. The interior
is in a flight school, so I am betting 5 or 6 at best. These numbers mean
things, its not like rating women (where there is rarely anything between a
1 and a 5, with a 1 being a 5 with a bad personality).

But the worst part is the engine. 100 hour time came up on the past
TBO engine and the A&P found one clyinder completely dead -- no
compression. He pulled the jug and found the side of the piston eaten
away, the rings torn loose, and a ton of scrap metal pieces in the
capture screen. WOOPS -- time for a rebuild. Problem is, Mr Stingy
not only hasn't taken care of his planes -- he hasn't been putting
away a nest egg (I guess he just thought that engine would go on
forever). So, he doesn't have the money to rebuild.


Can you guys rebuild the engine? It sounds like you may be better off with
a reman. Blue book doesn't give full replacement cost for a new engine on
either end. IOW, you deduct about 10k for runout, and you get about 10k for
new/reman. This means that you only want to get into this if you are
keeping the plane for a while. Otherwise, deduct the cost of the whole
value for a reman install. At any rate, as a buyer, I would not value a
field overhaul very highly.


He's trying to sell the Arrow. But its kinda hard to sell a plane
with a dead engine. And there is a long list of little to medium
things that need to be fixed (like replacing a good deal of the front
gear which has a bunch of slop in it).


He is in a very, very, bad place. Anyone who runs a flight school like this
deserves to get taken down.


So, he obviously can't get what he'd like for the plane. The big
discussion in the shop area has been what the plane might be worth.
And whether it might be worth trying to pick up cheap and fix up.


If you want to buy it, fix it and sell it, you need to get it around 40k.
(subtract from what it will sell for when you are done, and you will see
that there is not much profit to be had in this venture. At least you have
knowledge that reduces the risks). Realize that no one off the field is
going to want to pay him even this much for it. He will be lucky to get
35k. I guess if you get it for 40, you can fix it up and be at least 5k
ahead.

Anybody out there like to hazard a guess on what it might be worth?
And would it be worth our time to pick it up, do the maint ourselves
(yes, we have A&Ps in the group), and keep or sell it??? I think
AOPA's VRef shows it worth about $60 or so, but we all feel that is
very high for this plane's condition.


If you want to keep it, it is a lot more worth it. Otherwise, you will
likely find that you make more money in your regular jobs for less work. If
you do not want to keep it, I would go with a plane white paint job to save
cash. That plane is in demand at flight schools.

PS Vref is usually high.

Figure out what it would cost to pay to get it fixed, and what it would be
worth after the repairs. Subtract the repair cost from the final value -
that's what you should pay.

If you do the work yourself, you should pocket the savings, not the current
owner.

"Chuck" wrote in message
...
Hi everyone,

I thought I'd throw this out for discussion and see what comes from
some of the experienced people on the list.

I'm helping out some at a local school. The owner of the school is a
REAL penny pincher. He scrimps and saves anywhere he can. He'd reuse
oil if he could (he already fights with the A&Ps about reusing old
spark plugs). But in the process, he's let his fleet go to hell --
and I mean REALLY to hell.

He's got what used to be a nice '78 Arrow PA28R-201. The plane is set
up nicely with ADF, DNE, Garmin 430, second Nav/COM, Autopilot, and
power trim. But he's let the interior go a bit -- I'd say a 7/10.
And the outside is crap -- at most a 5/10. Some TLC might bring that
up to 6 or 7/10 - - but it needs paint touch up to get that rating.

But the worst part is the engine. 100 hour time came up on the past
TBO engine and the A&P found one clyinder completely dead -- no
compression. He pulled the jug and found the side of the piston eaten
away, the rings torn loose, and a ton of scrap metal pieces in the
capture screen. WOOPS -- time for a rebuild. Problem is, Mr Stingy
not only hasn't taken care of his planes -- he hasn't been putting
away a nest egg (I guess he just thought that engine would go on
forever). So, he doesn't have the money to rebuild.

He's trying to sell the Arrow. But its kinda hard to sell a plane
with a dead engine. And there is a long list of little to medium
things that need to be fixed (like replacing a good deal of the front
gear which has a bunch of slop in it).

So, he obviously can't get what he'd like for the plane. The big
discussion in the shop area has been what the plane might be worth.
And whether it might be worth trying to pick up cheap and fix up.

Anybody out there like to hazard a guess on what it might be worth?
And would it be worth our time to pick it up, do the maint ourselves
(yes, we have A&Ps in the group), and keep or sell it??? I think
AOPA's VRef shows it worth about $60 or so, but we all feel that is
very high for this plane's condition.



Chuck

On 2005-05-07, Chuck wrote:
So, he obviously can't get what he'd like for the plane. The big
discussion in the shop area has been what the plane might be worth.
And whether it might be worth trying to pick up cheap and fix up.

That's easy -- nobody discounts a plane by an amount equal to the cost
of the maintenance required to bring it up to full value. For some
reason airplanes are sold with a huge "package discount". I could never
afford to buy all of the parts required to build my Comanche (much less
assemble them!) for what I paid to get it complete and already assembled.

--
Ben Jackson

http://www.ben.com/

"Steve Foley" wrote in message
...
Figure out what it would cost to pay to get it fixed, and what it would be
worth after the repairs. Subtract the repair cost from the final value -
that's what you should pay.

If you do the work yourself, you should pocket the savings, not the
current
owner.


That will get you the high end value.

Another thing to do is factor in risk. In this case, Chuck and his buddies
have less risk because they know the plane. However, the likely sales price
is what someone else, who doesn't know anything about the plane other than
what they can see or pay to find out, is likely to offer.

The second method will get a low end, where they should probably start their
negotiations.

In article ,
"Dude" wrote:

"Steve Foley" wrote in message
...
Figure out what it would cost to pay to get it fixed, and what it would be
worth after the repairs. Subtract the repair cost from the final value -
that's what you should pay.

If you do the work yourself, you should pocket the savings, not the
current
owner.


That will get you the high end value.

Another thing to do is factor in risk. In this case, Chuck and his buddies
have less risk because they know the plane. However, the likely sales price
is what someone else, who doesn't know anything about the plane other than
what they can see or pay to find out, is likely to offer.

The second method will get a low end, where they should probably start their
negotiations.


If the operator has been cutting corners on maintenance, you could be
surprised at the kind of fleas hiding in that dog! I would expect worn
gear trunions, old hoses, leaky fuel bladders, corrosion, a prop that
needs expensive AD compliance, crazed glass -- just to name a few
starters.

--
Remove _'s from email address to talk to me.