GA Priced Out Of The Market?

One might infer from the following article, forecasting a down turn in
fixed-wing piston aircraft sales, that GA is continuing to slide further toward
extinction. With the inexorable increase in fuel prices over the decades since
I passed my Private check-ride, the increase in insurance premiums and other
fixed costs of General Aviation ownership and/or operation, it's easy to see
that fixed-wing piston-powered GA is continuing down the slope toward even
further marginalization. Before long, it will take military training or
corporate support for new pilots to be produced in the US, and probably
worldwide. All good things.... :-(

I remember fondly training for my commercial certificate in 1972. A PA-28 was
$6.50/hour wet. What's the cost today? And veterans returning from Viet Nam
who obtained a Private certificate were eligible for VA benefits toward
obtaining an Airline Transport Pilot certificate. Now, how many vets are able
to afford the expense for a Private
http://www.usaviationacademy.com/veterans; will a Sport Pilot
https://www.faa.gov/licenses_certificates/airmen_certification/sport_pilot/media/LSPBrochure.pdf
certificate open the VA to fund a vet through ATP? It would seem to me, that
the bar has been raised to the point of becoming an obstacle for most who dream
of "slipping the surly bonds ...," and exploring the third dimension among the
clouds. And I don't see Light Sport Aircraft mitigating the situation
significantly over the long term.

Due to the overwhelming increase in operations in the National Airspace System,
the current reduction in GA personal aviation is doubtless welcomed by the FAA
who are trying to shoehorn an additional 30,000 drone operations into the
finite NAS GA navigable airspace that is continually being reduced by military
encroachment.




http://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/news/FAA-Forecast-Mixed-For-GA-223708-1.html

FAA Forecast Mixed For GA
By Mary Grady | March 17, 2015

The FAA this week released its annual aviation forecast for the next 20 years,
predicting growth for the turbine and rotorcraft fleets but downturns in sales
of most fixed-wing piston airplanes. The business jet market grew in 2014 for
the first time since 2008, and the forecast predicts "robust growth" in that
sector over the long term, driven by higher corporate profits and the growth of
worldwide GDP. The number of rotorcraft is expected to increase at a rate of
2.5 percent per year, and fixed-wing turbine aircraft will increase by 2.2
percent per year. The fixed-wing piston fleet is expected to decline by 0.6
percent per year, according to the FAA's estimates, but the light sport
aircraft fleet will grow 4.3 percent per year, to a total of 5,360 LSAs flying
by 2035.

Business use of GA piston aircraft is expected to grow faster than personal or
recreational use, according to the forecast (PDF:
https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/apl/aviation_forecasts/aerospace_forecasts/2014-2035/media/2015_National_Forecast_Report.pdf).
Both student pilots and private pilots are expected to decrease at an annual
rate of 0.3 percent, but the FAA expects the number of sport pilots to grow. As
of the end of 2014, the number of sport pilot certificates issued was 5,157,
reflecting steady growth since the sport pilot certificate was created in 2005.
By 2035, the FAA said it expects a total of 14,950 sport pilots will be
certified.

On 20/03/2015 7:10 a.m., Larry Dighera wrote:

snip
I remember fondly training for my commercial certificate in 1972. A PA-28 was
$6.50/hour wet. What's the cost today? And veterans returning from Viet Nam
who obtained a Private certificate were eligible for VA benefits toward
obtaining an Airline Transport Pilot certificate. Now, how many vets are able
to afford the expense for a Private
http://www.usaviationacademy.com/veterans; will a Sport Pilot
https://www.faa.gov/licenses_certificates/airmen_certification/sport_pilot/media/LSPBrochure.pdf
certificate open the VA to fund a vet through ATP? It would seem to me, that
the bar has been raised to the point of becoming an obstacle for most who dream
of "slipping the surly bonds ...," and exploring the third dimension among the
clouds. And I don't see Light Sport Aircraft mitigating the situation
significantly over the long term.


I started flying in 1962. A C150 was $9 an hour dual.
Most of my flying was in the late 60s when solo was $10 for a C150 and
$12 for a C172
Now its around $130 an hour.
No wonder people are lining up to fly ultralights

On 20/03/2015 6:17 AM, george152 wrote:
On 20/03/2015 7:10 a.m., Larry Dighera wrote:

snip
I remember fondly training for my commercial certificate in 1972. A
PA-28 was
$6.50/hour wet. What's the cost today? And veterans returning from
Viet Nam
who obtained a Private certificate were eligible for VA benefits toward
obtaining an Airline Transport Pilot certificate. Now, how many vets
are able
to afford the expense for a Private
http://www.usaviationacademy.com/veterans; will a Sport Pilot
https://www.faa.gov/licenses_certificates/airmen_certification/sport_pilot/media/LSPBrochure.pdf

certificate open the VA to fund a vet through ATP? It would seem to
me, that
the bar has been raised to the point of becoming an obstacle for most
who dream
of "slipping the surly bonds ...," and exploring the third dimension
among the
clouds. And I don't see Light Sport Aircraft mitigating the situation
significantly over the long term.


I started flying in 1962. A C150 was $9 an hour dual.
Most of my flying was in the late 60s when solo was $10 for a C150 and
$12 for a C172
Now its around $130 an hour.
No wonder people are lining up to fly ultralights


Though this has to be understood in terms of the price index, since the
value of money has changed.

http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpid1501.pdf

Table 24.

The CPI for January 1962 was 30.

For January 2015 it is 233.7

There are no doubt arguments about whether the CPI is a proper measure.
I'll leave those for others.

On that basis, one would expect a C150 to go for $70. So, yes, the real
price has risen %180. Most of that is probably fuel. I can't see why
real insurance premiums would rise, unless the actual risk has (and why
would it?). Any insurer who tries to make too much profit would be undercut.

Sylvia.

On 20/03/2015 1:20 p.m., Sylvia Else wrote:
On 20/03/2015 6:17 AM, george152 wrote:
On 20/03/2015 7:10 a.m., Larry Dighera wrote:

snip
I remember fondly training for my commercial certificate in 1972. A
PA-28 was
$6.50/hour wet. What's the cost today? And veterans returning from
Viet Nam
who obtained a Private certificate were eligible for VA benefits toward
obtaining an Airline Transport Pilot certificate. Now, how many vets
are able
to afford the expense for a Private
http://www.usaviationacademy.com/veterans; will a Sport Pilot
https://www.faa.gov/licenses_certificates/airmen_certification/sport_pilot/media/LSPBrochure.pdf


certificate open the VA to fund a vet through ATP? It would seem to
me, that
the bar has been raised to the point of becoming an obstacle for most
who dream
of "slipping the surly bonds ...," and exploring the third dimension
among the
clouds. And I don't see Light Sport Aircraft mitigating the situation
significantly over the long term.


I started flying in 1962. A C150 was $9 an hour dual.
Most of my flying was in the late 60s when solo was $10 for a C150 and
$12 for a C172
Now its around $130 an hour.
No wonder people are lining up to fly ultralights


Though this has to be understood in terms of the price index, since the
value of money has changed.

http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpid1501.pdf

Table 24.

The CPI for January 1962 was 30.

For January 2015 it is 233.7

There are no doubt arguments about whether the CPI is a proper measure.
I'll leave those for others.

On that basis, one would expect a C150 to go for $70. So, yes, the real
price has risen %180. Most of that is probably fuel. I can't see why
real insurance premiums would rise, unless the actual risk has (and why
would it?). Any insurer who tries to make too much profit would be
undercut.

And whats worse I started flying in the old pounds, shillings and pence
days.
Currently the C150 is $150 per Hobbs hour

george152 wrote:

And whats worse I started flying in the old pounds, shillings and pence
days. Currently the C150 is $150 per Hobbs hour

Ouch!
And that's why the world comes to the USA for flight training.


--
Dallas

On 22/03/2015 6:32 p.m., Dallas wrote:
george152 wrote:

And whats worse I started flying in the old pounds, shillings and pence
days. Currently the C150 is $150 per Hobbs hour

Ouch!
And that's why the world comes to the USA for flight training.


I've told a few young PPLs. And I think theres one over there currently
building his hours