A aviation & planes forum. AviationBanter

If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

Go Back   Home » AviationBanter forum » rec.aviation newsgroups » Soaring
Site Map Home Register Authors List Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read Web Partners

Hobbs 2019 18m/Opens Nats - HRRR model forecasts of thunderstorms andcirrus blowoff - CASE STUDY



 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old July 2nd 19, 07:15 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
WaltWX[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 310
Default Hobbs 2019 18m/Opens Nats - HRRR model forecasts of thunderstorms andcirrus blowoff - CASE STUDY

The cirrus blowoff at Hobbs on DAY 7 and DAY 8 encouraged me to investigate how the HRRR model forecasts the cloud cover. Here's a pdf discussing this along with videos of how the model forecasted the thunderstorms and Total Cloud Cover:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/djcw4pfu9n...ms.pdf?r aw=1

For easy reference here's the GOES-16 sat imagery videos

DAY 7
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2rrdqjvfry...adar.mp4?raw=1

DAY 8
https://www.dropbox.com/s/0vxeixzdor...S-16.mp4?raw=1

CONCLUSIONS

Yes, it did forecast the cirrus blowoff.. but was too slow in moving toward Hobbs. So, I wouldn't rely on it for tasking with any detailed planning. It just indicates a higher risk day for completing a task.

Walt Rogers WX
 




Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Hobbs 2019 18m/Open - DAY8 FINAL DAY - Thu 06-27 - GOES-16 sat videoand HRRR model WaltWX[_2_] Soaring 2 June 29th 19 03:41 AM
Hobbs 2019 18M/Open Nats. Contest Day 4 6/23 [email protected] Soaring 4 June 26th 19 09:46 PM
2019 Hobbs 18M/Open Class Nats. Day 7 6/26/19 [email protected] Soaring 1 June 26th 19 09:11 PM
Hobbs 2019 18M/Open Class Nats. Day 5 6/24/2019 [email protected] Soaring 2 June 25th 19 04:32 AM
Uvalde 18m Nats Weather Board - model forecasts; Sat imagery andtime/height thermal forecasts WaltWX[_2_] Soaring 6 August 5th 17 06:01 AM


All times are GMT +1. The time now is 02:05 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright ©2004-2024 AviationBanter.
The comments are property of their posters.