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How safe is it, really?



 
 
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  #11  
Old November 30th 04, 06:02 PM
G.R. Patterson III
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June wrote:

I worry for his safety as it seems there is
another small plane crash every other time you turn on the news.


They only put things on the news that are unusual. When was the last time you
saw a news report of a car crash 3,000 miles away, yet, if a plane goes down in
California, it'll be on the evening news in New York that night.

As far as statistics is concerned, Mike has it right. Flying light aircraft is
statistically as safe as riding motorcycles on the highway. The additional
training for his instrument rating will make your husband even safer.

He should focus on this hobby now, while he still can. Carpe diem.

George Patterson
If a man gets into a fight 3,000 miles away from home, he *had* to have
been looking for it.
  #12  
Old November 30th 04, 06:10 PM
Mike Rapoport
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"Marco Leon" mmleon(at)yahoo.com wrote in message
...
I think what he really meant was that there's no reason (when all is said
and done) a private pilot can't end up with the same accident record as an
airline captain.

Marco Leon


That isn't even remotely true.

Mike
MU-2


"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message
ink.net...

"C J Campbell" wrote in message
...

If your husband is in the habit of flying low over the ground, showing

off
and taking unnecessary risks, then flying is not very safe at all. If
he
flies "by the book," carefully weighing the risks created by weather,
terrain, the condition of the airplane, and his own condition at the

time,
then he is probably as safe as any airline captain.


This is ridiculous. There is no area of GA flying that is even remotely
comparable to airline flying in terms of safety.

Mike
MU-2






  #14  
Old November 30th 04, 06:35 PM
C Kingsbury
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"June" wrote in message
om...

Your opinions would be appreciated.


One of my partners has a 4 year-old daughter who loves to go flying with
him. Obviously he (and more significantly his ex-wife) find the risks
acceptable.

There is risk the minute you get up off the couch. Come to think of it, if
you don't get off the couch, there is a risk you'll die young of heart
disease and diabetes. The fact is that nobody gets out of this life alive.
Flying does involve more risks than, say, carpentry, but as pilots we can
choose to control our risks and avoid many things that increase them.

In my experience people who have the flying "bug" bad enough to actually
make it through the rigmarole of getting a license are a breed apart.
They're all kinds of people- rich, poor, old men, young women, every race
and religion out there, but somewhere along the line we all got a little
chunk of the sky stuck inside us. Dig into his urge to fly and you'll
probably find pieces of the things that made you decide to spend the rest of
your life with him. Are you sure that you want to ask him to suppress this?
There is so much sadness and tragedy in life that doesn't make the papers.
None of us truly know the number of our days, and we owe it to ourselves and
our loved ones to live each present moment with joy and gratitude. For me,
part of that is thankfulness that I was born in the century in which two
bicycle mechanics from Dayton realized an ancient dream, and in a nation
where I, a person of average means, could turn that dream into reality.

Best,
-cwk.




  #15  
Old November 30th 04, 06:37 PM
Newps
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C J Campbell wrote:
While it is true that statistics overall say that flying an airplane is
about as hazardous as riding a motorcycle, the vast majority of flying
accidents are due to pilot error. In other words, the pilot made poor
choices about when to fly, what to fly, or where. Flying IFR at night in
areas of forecast icing over mountains in a light single engine airplane is
probably a poor choice.


Exactly. Take a 182, fly day VFR only, don't buzz anybody and your
chance of dying is the same as driving. You self limit when you can fly
but that's just another term for risk management.
  #16  
Old November 30th 04, 06:47 PM
Mike Rapoport
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You are fooling yourself. According to the Nall Report, the pilot was the
"major cause" of 70% of fatal accidents. This leaves 30%. Even if you
eliminate all the accidents from risky behavior or poor/rusty skills,
personal flying is still more dangerous than other forms of transport.
Pilots like to try to twist the stats to suit their beliefs. This makes no
sense to me. The motorcycle stats have people acting irresponsibly too.

The real question is "What is an acceptable level of risk?" That level
varies by person. I have this discussion with my wife over mountain
climbing all the time. My view is that you cannot perserve life, you have
to live it.

Mike
MU-2


"Robert M. Gary" wrote in message
om...
(June) wrote in message
. com...
I need some information from people 'in the field'. My husband has
his private license and is just starting to work on his IFR for
recreational flying. He wants to buy into a plane partnership, saying
he will be saving money rather than renting.

We have 2 little girls. I worry for his safety as it seems there is
another small plane crash every other time you turn on the news. I
think he should focus on this hobby when the kids are older, not when
he has such a young family.

Your opinions would be appreciated.


The motorcycle comparison is not a good one. Really, the safety has
everything to do with the type of guy your husband is. If he's the
type of person that is going to want to do low level buzzing over his
friends houses or jump into weather he isn't trained to deal with, it
could be dangerous. Unlike a motorcycle, a pilot gets to choose his
level of risk. I've flown with pilots that worry me, and I've flown
with pilots that will have very long lives. It really depends on his
choices. I have two young boys myself.

-Robert, Flight Instructor.



  #17  
Old November 30th 04, 07:20 PM
PaulH
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News outlets seem to focus on small plane crashes for reasons I've
never understood. When was the last time you saw an article in your
local paper about a car crash 100 miles away even though they occur
frequently?

The instrument rating will make your husband a much better pilot
because of the precision required in flying with instruments.

You can also form your own opinion about his attitude about safety.
If he's meticulous about planning and checking the aircraft before
flight, he will be ahead of the motorcycle odds. The major cause of
engine failure in small airplanes is running out of fuel, which is a
highly predictable event.
  #18  
Old November 30th 04, 07:33 PM
Andrew Sarangan
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The accident rate is about 7 per 100,000 hours flown, and the fatal
accident rate is about 1.3 per 100,000 hours flown. Remember that
these are averages, and it includes high risk activities such as low
level maneuvering, scud running and fuel exhaustion. My guess is, for
a conservative pilot with an instrument rating, the rate is likely to
be about half of the above numbers. A typical private pilot flies
about 100 hours per year. At that rate, it would be 300 years before
he would encounter an accident, or 1500 years for a fatal accident.

Comparison to riding a motorcycle is a good one. But the difference
is, a motorcycle accident doesn't always make the evening news.



"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message link.net...
Personal flying is about as safe as riding a motorcycle.

Mike
MU-2


"June" wrote in message
om...
I need some information from people 'in the field'. My husband has
his private license and is just starting to work on his IFR for
recreational flying. He wants to buy into a plane partnership, saying
he will be saving money rather than renting.

We have 2 little girls. I worry for his safety as it seems there is
another small plane crash every other time you turn on the news. I
think he should focus on this hobby when the kids are older, not when
he has such a young family.

Your opinions would be appreciated.

  #19  
Old November 30th 04, 07:52 PM
Marco Leon
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I don't understand what you're saying here. There are definitely pilots out
there that have flown decades without a reportable accident. Are you saying
that it isn't even remotely possible that an active private pilot can go
through their entire flying experience without an accident? Please clarify.

Marco


"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message
ink.net...

"Marco Leon" mmleon(at)yahoo.com wrote in message
...
I think what he really meant was that there's no reason (when all is said
and done) a private pilot can't end up with the same accident record as

an
airline captain.

Marco Leon


That isn't even remotely true.

Mike
MU-2


"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message
ink.net...

"C J Campbell" wrote in message
...

If your husband is in the habit of flying low over the ground,

showing
off
and taking unnecessary risks, then flying is not very safe at all. If
he
flies "by the book," carefully weighing the risks created by weather,
terrain, the condition of the airplane, and his own condition at the

time,
then he is probably as safe as any airline captain.

This is ridiculous. There is no area of GA flying that is even

remotely
comparable to airline flying in terms of safety.

Mike
MU-2








  #20  
Old November 30th 04, 08:12 PM
kontiki
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Default

Here is my opinion, for what it it worth. The safety of flying is very
dependent upon the quality of the pilot. Compared to driving a car for
example, if some nutcase headed in the opposite direction decides to
reach for his beer, your skills as a driver are not worth much.

In an airplane you are many times more likely to be a victim of your
own stupidity/carelessness/ignorance you name it. On the other hand
a cautious pilot is generally not subjected to the degree of idiocy
one experiences on the road on a daily basis. Therefore I feel flying
is safer for careful and conciencous pilots than driving.

I would say that having an IFR rating and several hundred hours of
flying experience (both in VFR and IFR) has a tendency to make someone
a better pilot than one without. But there is no substitute for experience
and you have to get there from somewhere. The best pilots tend to be
a bit meticulous and even a bit anal about their airplanes and flight
preparations. Overconfidence is not a virtue in aviation.

You really need to apply the same criteria to judging the quality of
a pilot that you would for most things in life.

June wrote:
I need some information from people 'in the field'. My husband has
his private license and is just starting to work on his IFR for
recreational flying. He wants to buy into a plane partnership, saying
he will be saving money rather than renting.

We have 2 little girls. I worry for his safety as it seems there is
another small plane crash every other time you turn on the news. I
think he should focus on this hobby when the kids are older, not when
he has such a young family.

Your opinions would be appreciated.


 




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