Solar storms spell trouble for GPS

On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 07:24:58 -0700, "Aluckyguess" wrote in
:

Im not worried.

Perhaps you should throw your hat in the ring:
http://politicalhumor.about.com/libr...bushworry2.htm

On 25 Oct 2006 07:00:43 -0700, "Walt" wrote in
.com:


FWIW, the last solar maximum occured around 2001, and GPS was in common
use then; I know I was using mine on a pretty regular basis then.

I don't recall any widespread disruptions. Not even slimspread
disruptions. :)

I'm thinking this may be much ado about nothing.

Perhaps you might bring this up with Professor Paul Kintner
): http://people.ece.cornell.edu/paul/

Here's some more information:

http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/...es.gps.TO.html
Sept. 26, 2006
Solar flares cause GPS failures, possibly devastating for jets and
distress calls, Cornell researchers warn.
Alessandro Cerruti of Cornell University, New York



http://www.ion.org/meetings/gnss2006...D&session=3#p5
Observed GPS and WAAS Signal-to-Noise Degradation Due to Solar Radio
Bursts
A. Cerruti, Cornell University

GPS signals, systems, and navigation accuracy are vulnerable to a
variety of space weather effects that are caused mostly by the
ionosphere. However, the sun, which is sometimes a strong radio
source, is the cause of GPS signal interference presented here. The
first direct observations of GPS L1 (1.57542 GHz) signal-to-noise
ratio degradation on two different models of GPS receivers due to the
solar radio burst associated with the 7 September 2005 solar flare are
presented.

Signal-to-noise ratio data from three identical, collocated receivers
at Arecibo Observatory and also from four identical receivers of a
different model located in Brazil, were available at the time of the
solar radio burst. These receivers were all in the sun-lit hemisphere
and all were affected similarly. The maximum solar radio burst power
associated with the 7 September 2005 flare had a peak intensity of
about 8,700 solar flux units (1 SFU = 10-22 W/m2-Hz) RHCP at 1,600
MHz, which caused a corresponding decrease in the signal-to-noise
ratio of about 2.3 dB across all visible satellites. Only the
right-hand, circularly polarized (RHCP) emissions affected the GPS
signals.

To confirm the effect, the solar radio burst associated with the 28
October 2003 flare was investigated. Although polarization data were
not available for this event, the maximum degradation at GPS L1 was
about 3.0 dB, and a degradation of 10 dB was observed on the
semi-codeless L2 signal for a solar radio burst of 13,600 SFU.

The event analyzed herein can be used to scale historical solar radio
bursts of 80,000 SFU. Decreases of 12 dB (21 dB) in the L1 (L2,
semi-codeless) signal-to-noise ratio are implied along with loss of
tracking for inadequately designed GPS receivers. Since solar radio
bursts affect all satellites in view of a receiver, all receivers in
the sun-lit hemisphere, the new Galileo navigation system, and all
space-based augmentation systems such as WAAS and EGNOS, they are a
potential threat to life-critical systems.



Institute of Navigation in Fort Worth, Texas: http://www.ion.org/

This is a rather alarmist exaggeration of reality.

--
Transpose mxsmanic and gmail to reach me by e-mail.

Guess we'll have to fly at night.
--
Gene Seibel
Gene & Sue's Aeroplanes - http://pad39a.com/gene/planes.html
Because we fly, we envy no one.



Larry Dighera wrote:
http://www.newscientisttech.com/chan...e-for-gps.html
Solar storms spell trouble for GPS

SOLAR flares can drown out GPS signals with potentially serious
consequences for airlines, emergency services, and anyone relying on
satellite navigation.

It turns out these bursts of charged particles, which produce auroras
and geomagnetic storms, also generate radio waves in the 1.2 and
1.6-gigahertz bands used by GPS.

How was such a clash missed? Because GPS receivers only became common
during a period of low solar activity. By 2011 solar flares will reach
the peak of their cycle and receivers will likely fail. Or so
Alessandro Cerruti of Cornell University, New York, told a meeting of
the Institute of Navigation in Fort Worth, Texas, last week. The only
solution would be to redesign GPS receivers or satellites, which may
not be practical, says Cerruti.

From issue 2572 of New Scientist magazine, 07 October 2006, page 27

Larry Dighera wrote:
http://www.newscientisttech.com/chan...e-for-gps.html
Solar storms spell trouble for GPS

SOLAR flares can drown out GPS signals with potentially serious
consequences for airlines, emergency services, and anyone relying on
satellite navigation.

The trouble with the Chicken Littles of the world is that they cry
"Wolf!" far too often (how is that for mixing allegories?). When I was
in college, the Club of Rome assured us we would be completely out of
resources by 1980. Earlier than that, we were going to have a complete
totalitarian takeover by 1984. The world was going to end with the Y2K
"bug" on Jan 1, 2000. And when that didn't happen, then it was going to
end on Jan 1, 2001. Every slot machine in Las Vegas was going to empty
itself at midnight on Dec 31, 1999 because it would suddenly indicate
that it had not paid since 1899 or something like that. The solar
flares were supposed to destroy all radio communications in the 1980s,
then the 1990s, then in 2000, now 2011. The peak activity cycle appears
to be constantly pushed back by these doomsayers.

Someday, of course, they will be right, and they will all get to say "I
told you so!" except we will all be dead because we stopped listening
to them. Someday the solar flares will shut down all the radios. And
all the airplanes will fall out of the sky and all the ships will hit
icebergs (if they have not all melted by then) and the earth's magnetic
field will flip--flop and the asteroid will hit and the giant
super-volcano will erupt and a tsunami 5 kilometers high will hit the
coast and California will fall into the sea and we will not be able to
do anything about it because we will have used all of our nuclear
weapons to knock ourselves back to the stone age and all the resources
will be gone and we will be reduced to driving horse and buggies but
the hoof and mouth will get the horses and we will have to support
ourselves by selling our kidneys but someone will already have stolen
one of them and, anyway we will all be living on rafts because the
icecaps will have melted and our rafts will be sliding around on the
global ice sheets caused by the icecaps melting.

Maybe I am just an old fool, but I suspect that if there is really a
problem that somebody else who has an actual engineering degree will
solve it and make a lot of money doing it. Or maybe somebody will just
convince all the politicians that there is a problem where there is not
one and we will just have our taxes doubled to pay for an unneeded
solution.

Garner Ted Armstrong and the Worldwide Church of God predicted all
sorts of things that never came true. Thing is, his disiples dont care
that he was wrong. They just edited all that out and kept on
preachin'...

Recently, cjcampbell posted:

Larry Dighera wrote:

http://www.newscientisttech.com/chan...e-for-gps.html
Solar storms spell trouble for GPS

SOLAR flares can drown out GPS signals with potentially serious
consequences for airlines, emergency services, and anyone relying on
satellite navigation.

The trouble with the Chicken Littles of the world is that they cry
"Wolf!" far too often (how is that for mixing allegories?).

(rest snipped for brevity)

My sentiments, exactly.

Neil

On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 11:12:07 GMT, Larry Dighera
wrote:

http://www.newscientisttech.com/chan...e-for-gps.html
Solar storms spell trouble for GPS

SOLAR flares can drown out GPS signals with potentially serious
consequences for airlines, emergency services, and anyone relying on
satellite navigation.


As almost any pilot can tell you, this is old news.

It turns out these bursts of charged particles, which produce auroras
and geomagnetic storms, also generate radio waves in the 1.2 and
1.6-gigahertz bands used by GPS.

How was such a clash missed? Because GPS receivers only became common

It wasn't except for those who weren't looking. Why do you supposed
the government decided we needed to keep a non satellite based backup
system operational.

during a period of low solar activity. By 2011 solar flares will reach
the peak of their cycle and receivers will likely fail. Or so
Alessandro Cerruti of Cornell University, New York, told a meeting of
the Institute of Navigation in Fort Worth, Texas, last week. The only
solution would be to redesign GPS receivers or satellites, which may
not be practical, says Cerruti.

From issue 2572 of New Scientist magazine, 07 October 2006, page 27
Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com

On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 11:12:07 GMT, Larry Dighera
wrote:

http://www.newscientisttech.com/chan...e-for-gps.html
Solar storms spell trouble for GPS

I wonder where Cerutti has been for the last few years. The military
has talked about it, hell, it's even been discussed on here.


SOLAR flares can drown out GPS signals with potentially serious
consequences for airlines, emergency services, and anyone relying on
satellite navigation.

It turns out these bursts of charged particles, which produce auroras
and geomagnetic storms, also generate radio waves in the 1.2 and
1.6-gigahertz bands used by GPS.

How was such a clash missed? Because GPS receivers only became common

It wasn't, at least not by those paying attention.
Just a bit over two years ago we had some of the strongest solar
flares on record. Not *the* strongest, but that was because they
pretty much missed us. The aurora was visible all the way to Mexico
and there have been at least two instances of interruptions to GPS in
the last five years.

during a period of low solar activity. By 2011 solar flares will reach
the peak of their cycle and receivers will likely fail. Or so
Alessandro Cerruti of Cornell University, New York, told a meeting of

It's happened twice already. How come he didn't know.

the Institute of Navigation in Fort Worth, Texas, last week. The only
solution would be to redesign GPS receivers or satellites, which may

If you blanket a frequency used by a system with signals stronger than
the system generates, or strong enough to block the receivers,
redesigning them is not going to help unless you move the operational
frequency to something that is not interfered with by anything.
Maybe they could 2.4 Gigs:-))


not be practical, says Cerruti.

As with past interruptions they only lasted a few hours. Of course if
we ended up with a coronal mass ejection in the record class pointed
straight at us we might lose more than a few satellites, hardened or
not. This has also been discussed concerning the safety of
astronauts, but they *think* they'd be safe in the most heavily
shielded parts of the space station.

From issue 2572 of New Scientist magazine, 07 October 2006, page 27

I have talked to stations on nearly every continent using signals
reflected off the Ionosphere during an aurora. OTOH I have seen aurora
so strong instead of reflecting signals it absorbed them. That was
just about two years ago. When it gets that strong few signals make
it through. I think that one created about a two hour outage.

Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com