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#11
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Avgas availability
"Ross" wrote in message ... Matt Barrow wrote: BTW, regarding that 2 million bbls/day of expanded capacity (we use, what, 10 million a day?), two studies several years ago (late 70's early 80s') calculated we could save over 10% annually on gas usage by merely coordinating traffic signals better. Of course, that would mean localities would possibly have to give up $$billions in reveune from fines. It also means that those self-same localities would have to get off their asses and do the work of setting them correctly. Fat chance: the built-in congestion is now FAR worse, with traffic cams and the like. NO, it's so much easier to pontificate "Public Service" BS like "share a ride", "ride your bike"... It's nice to have the advertising budget, too. I am on a commuter bus for 35 miles one way. Very convienent. My company pays one half the cost. With gas at $2.97 this week, that is very nice. How nice. If we all moved to bigger cities, we could all take commuter buses. Recall the point about the exception disproving the rule. |
#12
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Avgas availability
"Robert M. Gary" wrote in message oups.com... On May 16, 6:18 am, "Matt Barrow" wrote: "kontiki" wrote in message ... Matt Whiting wrote: Anyone seeing any avgas shortages? I just learned that a local airport (7N1) is out of gas. The FBO has a 10,000 gallon tank and ordered fuel back in February and still hasn't received it. He ran out yesterday... Matt No, but I've been hearing reports that supply is very tight. The reasons of course are this country's complete failure to improve infastructure or explore for more supply of an important commodity. Oh, they know where it is (Continental shelf, ANWR, etc.), so exploration is rather worthless. Thus supply is very short, demand is up and so are prices. Its economics 101. Right now, two of the biggest refineries are shut down for maintenance, and one had to be shut down for unexpected repairs. Petro industry people warned about this for years and Katrina wasn't the wakeup call that cementheads needed. As most every one knows, we've not built a refinery in the US in 32 years, and during that time When supply is tight, fule suppliers with do what they call "allocating". Customers that are not branded (and just shop around for the lowest prices when they need fuel) can be left without fuel in favore of allocated customers. It happened for a while when Katrina hit. http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArti...63601990515635 /quote Our refineries are doing more than ever, but their numbers are dwindling and no new ones are being built. The reason is not greed, but cost and regulations. From 1994 to 2003, the refining industry spent $47.4 billion, not to build new refineries, but to bring existing ones into compliance with ever new and stringent environmental rules. That's where those allegedly excessive profits go. In 2006, the blending of ethanol into gasoline reached a new high of more than five billion gallons and production if new clean-burning ultra low-sulfur diesel fuel topped a record 2.6 million barrels a day at the end of last year. The fact is that U.S. refining capacity has been growing at about 1% a year for the past decade - the equivalent of adding a mid-size refinery every year. Since 1996, U.S. refiners have expanded capacity by more than 2 million barrels a day This is a remarkable achievement in the face of environmental mandates setting new ethanol usage and low-sulfur requirements. But the last major refinery built in the U.S. was in Garyville, La., in 1976 and the ones we have are getting older, no matter how well they're maintained. Fifty out of 194 refineries were shut down from 1990 to 2004. There is no slack in the system. Like the cars they fuel, periodic maintenance us required. /end BTW, regarding that 2 million bbls/day of expanded capacity (we use, what, 10 million a day?), two studies several years ago (late 70's early 80s') calculated we could save over 10% annually on gas usage by merely coordinating traffic signals better. Of course, that would mean localities would possibly have to give up $$billions in reveune from fines. It also means that those self-same localities would have to get off their asses and do the work of setting them correctly. Fat chance: the built-in congestion is now FAR worse, with traffic cams and the like. NO, it's so much easier to pontificate "Public Service" BS like "share a ride", "ride your bike"... It's nice to have the advertising budget, too. -- Matt Barrow (14 years in the road design/building business) Performace Homes, LLC. Colorado Springs, CO All very true. However, lack of capacity does not result in shortages as the OP suggests. Really? Shortages (capacity) do not cause other shortages (output)? Great logic...mind 'splaining that one? In a free market lack of capacity or supply results in higher prices. Isn't that what the OP stated? Now, if the democrats try to cap prices or increase the tax on gas the restricted capacity would result in shortages. Nothin' gets past you! :~) |
#13
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Avgas availability
"Jim Carter" wrote in message ... It depends entirely on where the tax is applicable. If the tax is on income and revenue (windfall profits revisited?) then it might curtail production because of less capital to reinvest and less incentive to run at capacity. If the tax is an excise and attached at the pump, then the industry producers will see little impact to their revenue, but you and I will pick up the load. That might result in a reduced demand for fuel, which might increase availability but that cause and effect often alludes the population. ??? Tax?? (Talking to yourself??) |
#14
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Avgas availability
"John Galban" wrote in message s.com... On May 16, 6:18 am, "Matt Barrow" wrote: NO, it's so much easier to pontificate "Public Service" BS like "share a ride", "ride your bike"... It's nice to have the advertising budget, too. Well, actually doing those things makes a significant difference too. How much? During the late 70's, it's been estimated that conservation saved about 3-5% and the economic slowdown did the rest. Those of us who keep track of oil production and consumption figures know that people will cut consumption drastically if the price hurts enough. Really? What an insight! You have inside information on the law of supply and demand? :~) This was demonstrated quite handily after the Katrina related spike two years ago. People started riding busses, sharing rides and using more fuel efficient transportation. Consumption numbers dropped around 10% and the street price of a gallon of gas dipped below $2 shortly thereafter. And the ecomomic slowdown did...what, to the numbers? BTW, I'm certainly not saying conservation isn't a good idea. But, like alternative sources of power, they're insignificant. And yes, gunning a 3/4 ton pickup truck away from a green light is STOOPID. Of course, with the price below $2/gal, people went right back to their old ways and consumption (and prices) went right back up. Prices went down when the production facilities came back online; they went back up only after the world market price went up and a couple of our way-too-few facilities had to be brought down for service. Geez... UpChuck Schumer and his crackheaded cohorts must love people that came come up with such fluff. It's quite evident that we can cut back sigificantly when we have to. We just don't want to. BTW - If gas prices get you down, invest in the oil sector. It'll make you feel better. I'd rather get FAT ASSED GOVERNMENT TYPES TO QUIT SITTING ON THEIR BRAINS. I'd also want them to quit f*ck*ng with traffic light to garner revenue and also to quit KILLING PEOPLE in doing so. Maybe some people would rather just kiss the government peepee. -- Matt Barrow Performace Homes, LLC. Colorado Springs, CO |
#15
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Avgas availability
Nope - responding to Bob Fry's post immediately preceding mine.
-- Jim Carter Rogers, Arkansas "Matt Barrow" wrote in message ... "Jim Carter" wrote in message ... It depends entirely on where the tax is applicable. If the tax is on income and revenue (windfall profits revisited?) then it might curtail production because of less capital to reinvest and less incentive to run at capacity. If the tax is an excise and attached at the pump, then the industry producers will see little impact to their revenue, but you and I will pick up the load. That might result in a reduced demand for fuel, which might increase availability but that cause and effect often alludes the population. ??? Tax?? (Talking to yourself??) |
#16
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Avgas availability
"Matt Barrow" wrote:
"kontiki" wrote in message ... Matt Whiting wrote: Anyone seeing any avgas shortages? I just learned that a local airport (7N1) is out of gas. The FBO has a 10,000 gallon tank and ordered fuel back in February and still hasn't received it. He ran out yesterday... Matt No, but I've been hearing reports that supply is very tight. The reasons of course are this country's complete failure to improve infastructure or explore for more supply of an important commodity. Oh, they know where it is (Continental shelf, ANWR, etc.), so exploration is rather worthless. Do you know what the know proven reserves in ANWR are? ZERO barrels. None, nada, zip. And consider this scenario... ANWR is east of Prudhoe Bay while the National Petroleum Reserve -- Alaska (NPR-A) is to the west, and both are estimated by the USGS to have about the same amount of oil, in about the same type and size of reservoirs. Hmmm... what significance does that have, you say? First, there has been exactly 1 exploratory well drilled in ANWR, in 1985. The results are secret. Second, exploration wells have been being drilled in NPR-A since the late 1940's. There are several known reserves, none of which are large enough to warrant production. A typical example is that a hole was drilled about 50 miles southeast of Barrow this spring, and it produced oil. It was not flow tested adequately, but they estimate 300-400 million barrels. It is 150 miles or so to the nearest pipeline, so it will not be produced. Experience in NPR-A suggests that it might take 40-50 years of exploration in ANWR before even a single drop of oil would be pumped out for sale. Thus supply is very short, demand is up and so are prices. Its economics 101. Right now, two of the biggest refineries are shut down for maintenance, and one had to be shut down for unexpected repairs. Petro industry people warned about this for years and Katrina wasn't the wakeup call that cementheads needed. As most every one knows, we've not built a refinery in the US in 32 years, and during that time A totally bogus statement. The industry has been rebuilding refineries as needed. Every time they rebuild one, and increase its output, they *close* others.... Why would anyone build a new refinery??? All it would do is add *excess* capacity. They wouldn't be able to sell the product without lowering the price of products from other refineries. Oil companies are not stupid! http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArti...63601990515635 /quote Our refineries are doing more than ever, but their numbers are dwindling and no new ones are being built. The reason is not greed, but cost and regulations. From 1994 to 2003, the refining industry spent $47.4 billion, not to build new refineries, but to bring existing ones into compliance with ever new and stringent environmental rules. That's where those allegedly excessive profits go. Money spent on increasing the size and rebuilding refineries is *not* profit. That is also not some huge expense "to bring existing ones into compliance". It is done to upgrade to more efficient equipment, which is more profitable. The total capacity is adjusted to *eliminate* unused capacity! In other words, they do not have any intention of building excess capacity which would cut into profits. Oil companies are not stupid! The fine line between just enough capacity and too much or too little is drawn by the oil companies, and they most certainly are not inclined to make sure there is enough excess capacity to prevent price increases! Claiming that no refineries have been built is disingenuous, and simply insignificant. A great deal of new capacity has been built, and there has been a huge amount of capacity purposely shut down to maintain higher prices. The fact is that U.S. refining capacity has been growing at about 1% a year for the past decade - the equivalent of adding a mid-size refinery every year. Since 1996, U.S. refiners have expanded capacity by more than 2 million barrels a day This is a remarkable achievement in the face of environmental mandates setting new ethanol usage and low-sulfur requirements. It is remarkably naive to believe that last sentence is appropriate. But the last major refinery built in the U.S. was in Garyville, La., in 1976 and the ones we have are getting older, no matter how well they're maintained. That is obviously not true, given the above statements about rebuilding refineries. Fifty out of 194 refineries were shut down from 1990 to 2004. There is no slack in the system. Like the cars they fuel, periodic maintenance us required. And obviously oil companies *are*, and have been for decades, fine tuning the refinery industry for maximum profit. /end -- Floyd L. Davidson http://www.apaflo.com/floyd_davidson Ukpeagvik (Barrow, Alaska) |
#17
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Avgas availability
On May 16, 4:08 pm, Bob Fry wrote:
"RG" == Robert M Gary writes: RG In a free market lack of RG capacity or supply results in higher prices. Now, if the RG democrats try to cap prices or increase the tax on gas the RG restricted capacity would result in shortages. An increased tax would result in a higher retail price...how would that create a shortage again? Wouldn't it tend to reduce consumption thereby alleviating the shortage? If the tax is on marginal profit (i.e. "wind fall tax") the fuel companies may not be able to produce more than a fix amount of gas because the cost to provide it (including the new tax) may be not allow the market to meet the price. I.e. if supplier and demander can't agree on any price there is no supply. -Robert |
#18
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Avgas availability
On May 16, 5:52 pm, Matt Whiting wrote:
Robert M. Gary wrote: All very true. However, lack of capacity does not result in shortages as the OP suggests. In a free market lack of capacity or supply results in higher prices. Now, if the democrats try to cap prices or increase the tax on gas the restricted capacity would result in shortages. It absolutely does result in shortages. Capacity can't be added in zero time even if it is economically viable to do so. And prices have to stay high enough, long enough to attract new investment. In the mean time, shortages will occur ever more frequently even as the prices rise dramatically. Matt I'm not sure how it is where you live but here gas prices can chance twice a day. Prices can change very quickly to reflect supply. -robert |
#19
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Avgas availability
On May 16, 8:05 pm, "Matt Barrow"
wrote: "Robert M. Gary" wrote in ooglegroups.com... On May 16, 6:18 am, "Matt Barrow" wrote: "kontiki" wrote in message ... Matt Whiting wrote: Anyone seeing any avgas shortages? I just learned that a local airport (7N1) is out of gas. The FBO has a 10,000 gallon tank and ordered fuel back in February and still hasn't received it. He ran out yesterday... Matt No, but I've been hearing reports that supply is very tight. The reasons of course are this country's complete failure to improve infastructure or explore for more supply of an important commodity. Oh, they know where it is (Continental shelf, ANWR, etc.), so exploration is rather worthless. Thus supply is very short, demand is up and so are prices. Its economics 101. Right now, two of the biggest refineries are shut down for maintenance, and one had to be shut down for unexpected repairs. Petro industry people warned about this for years and Katrina wasn't the wakeup call that cementheads needed. As most every one knows, we've not built a refinery in the US in 32 years, and during that time When supply is tight, fule suppliers with do what they call "allocating". Customers that are not branded (and just shop around for the lowest prices when they need fuel) can be left without fuel in favore of allocated customers. It happened for a while when Katrina hit. http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArti...63601990515635 /quote Our refineries are doing more than ever, but their numbers are dwindling and no new ones are being built. The reason is not greed, but cost and regulations. From 1994 to 2003, the refining industry spent $47.4 billion, not to build new refineries, but to bring existing ones into compliance with ever new and stringent environmental rules. That's where those allegedly excessive profits go. In 2006, the blending of ethanol into gasoline reached a new high of more than five billion gallons and production if new clean-burning ultra low-sulfur diesel fuel topped a record 2.6 million barrels a day at the end of last year. The fact is that U.S. refining capacity has been growing at about 1% a year for the past decade - the equivalent of adding a mid-size refinery every year. Since 1996, U.S. refiners have expanded capacity by more than 2 million barrels a day This is a remarkable achievement in the face of environmental mandates setting new ethanol usage and low-sulfur requirements. But the last major refinery built in the U.S. was in Garyville, La., in 1976 and the ones we have are getting older, no matter how well they're maintained. Fifty out of 194 refineries were shut down from 1990 to 2004. There is no slack in the system. Like the cars they fuel, periodic maintenance us required. /end BTW, regarding that 2 million bbls/day of expanded capacity (we use, what, 10 million a day?), two studies several years ago (late 70's early 80s') calculated we could save over 10% annually on gas usage by merely coordinating traffic signals better. Of course, that would mean localities would possibly have to give up $$billions in reveune from fines. It also means that those self-same localities would have to get off their asses and do the work of setting them correctly. Fat chance: the built-in congestion is now FAR worse, with traffic cams and the like. NO, it's so much easier to pontificate "Public Service" BS like "share a ride", "ride your bike"... It's nice to have the advertising budget, too. -- Matt Barrow (14 years in the road design/building business) Performace Homes, LLC. Colorado Springs, CO All very true. However, lack of capacity does not result in shortages as the OP suggests. Really? Shortages (capacity) do not cause other shortages (output)? Great logic...mind 'splaining that one? I'm not sure teaching an entire economics class is possible within this forum but the short answer is, if the gov't stays out of it prices will quickly adjust to adjust to output levels. In the stock market supply of available stock changes by the second, as do commondities, exchange rates, etc, in all these cases prices adjust such that everyone can buy a share of stock, the only question is the price. In retail fuel, prices often change more than once per day. -Robert, MBA |
#20
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Avgas availability
On May 16, 4:08 pm, John Galban wrote:
On May 16, 6:18 am, "Matt Barrow" wrote: NO, it's so much easier to pontificate "Public Service" BS like "share a ride", "ride your bike"... It's nice to have the advertising budget, too. Well, actually doing those things makes a significant difference too. Those of us who keep track of oil production and consumption figures know that people will cut consumption drastically if the price hurts enough. This was demonstrated quite handily after the Katrina related spike two years ago. People started riding busses, sharing rides and using more fuel efficient transportation. Consumption numbers dropped around 10% and the street price of a gallon of gas dipped below $2 shortly thereafter. Today the elasticity of auto gas is very, very inelastic. Many suggest that that would not change until we top $5/gal for unleaded. -Robert |
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