I would point out that IFR cross country being safe is true only when
you have an all-weather airplane available that you are rated in AND you
have the experience and currency to safely fly it. Many see the
instrument rating as the "holy grail" and then are disappointed to learn
the the rental Archer is not suddenly impervious to weather events just
because they have an instrument rating.

In the 30 years or so since I got my instrument ticket, I can recall
only one trip I couldn't complete due to weather. (Some delays, but only
once did I have to find an alternative ride home. That one was due to
widespread moderate to severe icing.)

Only 1 cancellation in 30 years? I won't argue for a second that you
were not able to do this. If you are prepared to wait LONG enough, any
adverse weather will eventually move on. What makes the equation tricky
is when the family is sitting in a strange FBO for 8 hours and the
weather only improves a little bit. You (/your family) may personally be
able to sit it out for quite a while, maybe even overnight or 2 full
days. But, add a "schedule back home" and kids/spouse and you are no
longer the sole decision maker on what is reasonable. I suspect most
people, especially those toting family/others will reach the "buster"
point many more times than you did flying that many years.

I believe the dispatch rate for the average non-deiced piston single
spam can goes from about 50% VFR to about 75% IFR. I can believe a much
higher rate if you are talking about a fully equipped turboprop flying
around Arizona. The typical line rental here in the Chicago area will
not be able to maintain your ratio of successfully flown (safe) flights.

I agree it is suicidal (or patently stupid) to knowingly fly into IFR
conditions without a rating. But having the rating does not make IFR
conditions automatically "safe" (and I believe nobody is suggesting
otherwise). Thunderstorms/icing/low ceilings/non-currency usually
present various degrees of risk to the IFR pilot. Again, many can be
mitigated by the proper equipment. A CATIIIc equipped airliner can be
thought of as having a pretty high dispatch rate in relative safety WITH
a properly trained and current crew on board armed and safe operating
procedures (aka "the company manual") and current weather/planning.
Change any of those parameters and I believe safety begins to erode. At
some point, the instrument rating does not mean anything over a VFR-only
ticket (thunderstorms/icing/low ceilings) when you fly a basic piston
single.

Good Luck,
Mike




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