On 10-Apr-2004, Mike Spera wrote:

I would point out that IFR cross country being safe is true only when
you have an all-weather airplane available that you are rated in AND you
have the experience and currency to safely fly it. Many see the
instrument rating as the "holy grail" and then are disappointed to learn
the the rental Archer is not suddenly impervious to weather events just
because they have an instrument rating.


You are right about instrument currency, of course. But if you refuse to
fly in weather until experienced, how will you become experienced? As to
the airplane's capabilities, what is really required is that equipment be
more than a match for the weather at hand and that critical systems be
backed up. IFR is obviously a much better deal in your own airplane where
you can assure proper maintenance and equipment level.



Only 1 cancellation in 30 years? I won't argue for a second that you
were not able to do this. If you are prepared to wait LONG enough, any
adverse weather will eventually move on. What makes the equation tricky
is when the family is sitting in a strange FBO for 8 hours and the
weather only improves a little bit. You (/your family) may personally be
able to sit it out for quite a while, maybe even overnight or 2 full
days. But, add a "schedule back home" and kids/spouse and you are no
longer the sole decision maker on what is reasonable. I suspect most
people, especially those toting family/others will reach the "buster"
point many more times than you did flying that many years.

What I meant (and though I made clear) is that I have only once had to
abandon my airplane away from home base due to weather. (I have had to do
it a couple of other times due to mechanical problems.) A much higher
number of trips were cancelled (before leaving home base) because of
weather. I have also had any number of delays, some for hours. But I have
also had similar weather delays when using the airlines. Many of my trips
included family members.


I believe the dispatch rate for the average non-deiced piston single
spam can goes from about 50% VFR to about 75% IFR. I can believe a much
higher rate if you are talking about a fully equipped turboprop flying
around Arizona. The typical line rental here in the Chicago area will
not be able to maintain your ratio of successfully flown (safe) flights.

I would say my IFR dispatch rate has been significantly better than 75%. If
I relied on rental aircraft your figure might have been about right, but I
have always had my own plane. By far, the biggest reason for cancellation
has been icing, which is a year-round consideration here in the Pacific
Northwest. Widespread areas of thunderstorms and/or low ceilings are rare.




I agree it is suicidal (or patently stupid) to knowingly fly into IFR
conditions without a rating. But having the rating does not make IFR
conditions automatically "safe" (and I believe nobody is suggesting
otherwise). Thunderstorms/icing/low ceilings/non-currency usually
present various degrees of risk to the IFR pilot. Again, many can be
mitigated by the proper equipment. A CATIIIc equipped airliner can be
thought of as having a pretty high dispatch rate in relative safety WITH
a properly trained and current crew on board armed and safe operating
procedures (aka "the company manual") and current weather/planning.
Change any of those parameters and I believe safety begins to erode. At
some point, the instrument rating does not mean anything over a VFR-only
ticket (thunderstorms/icing/low ceilings) when you fly a basic piston
single.

You are of course correct that an instrument ticket should not be considered
a license to fly in the same weather conditions tackled by professional
crews in heavy turbine equipment. However, I also think that the "gap" in
weather conditions that can safely be dealt with between VFR and "basic" IFR
is substantial, and encompasses the majority of days in most places.

--
-Elliott Drucker