On Tue, 01 Jun 2004 14:19:09 GMT, "Dude" wrote:

[Good stuff snipped]

There are lots of problems to overcome, technological and otherwise for this
idea to work. I won't say it won't happen. I just still see problems with
it (which is admittedly my nature).

Also, while technology does tend to come in leaps, you can't count on one.
Moore's law has been mostly evolutionary to this point. It only counts on
leaps coming along every once in a while. So far, the leaps in aviation
have not been coming along all that fast at the low end. The leaps don't
just happen, they are the result of persistent R&D. Now, Cessna won't make
a new small piston plane.

I will hope for your revolution, but I am not holding my breath. Please,
prove me the unnecessary pessimist.

Oh, I don't think you're unnecessarily pessimistic. The whole problem
boils down to three questions:

1. CAN it be done?
2. WILL it be done?
and
3. SHOULD it be done?

We differ in the response to #1... I feel it's doable, within current
technology. But I agree there are problems. We can rely on the onboard
computer to not allow operation if certain maintenance parameters are out
of spec. But, such technology is open to spoofing. For instance, it'd be
cheaper to burn a ROM that says the BRS has been replaced instead of
actually replacing the BRS.

In any case, by the time we get to #2, we're in agreement. It's not going
to happen. A brand new Cirrus that depends on pilot skills dating from
1938 sells for almost a quarter-million dollars. To automate the piloting
process, even to the extent of duplicating the stall-avoidance features of
the Ercoupe (only doing it in software rather than hardware) won't be
cheap.

But that quarter-million dollars a pop puts the *current* Cirrus out of
financial reach of the average citizen. Even if the "Ercoupe NT" version
of the Cirrus merely *doubles* the price, you still aren't going to get too
many takers.

If the plane offered doorstep-to-doorstep service, you might get some of
the real well-heeled types picking them up. This may even have a
trickle-down effect, leading to lower-cost versions.

But the Ercoupe NT still will require conventional runways. Moller's VTOL
Skycar gets around this...but I suspect there are few millionaire
neighborhoods that'll long tolerate eight shrieking rotary engines hauling
the CEO to work at 7 AM.

Finally, we get to the point of *Should* it be done. Personally, I like to
manually operate the controls, but don't have any problem with someone who
just wants to punch the "Fly to Portland" button then sit back and nap.
However, such a system will probably require positive control of all but
the most out-of-the-way airspace. Which would kill General Aviation as we
know it...and as I prefer it.

So I guess I'll scrap that antigravity sled I've been building... :-)

Ron Wanttaja