Are you saying the whole thesis in The Killing Zone is based on such
an elementary methodological error?

Not entirely. But you are dealing with such small numbers here that
the only way to make them valid would be to keep the dead pilots alive
and let them keep on flying.

Fatalities are only caused by people who crash. Once you're killed,
you don't get to play any more, or in this case to accumulate more
hours. Even if fatalities were distributed at random among the entire
pilot population, the survivors would necessarily have more hours than
the ones who were killed.

It's like the old pilot justification: "He *****ed up!" If he crashed,
then he ****ed up. Since you won't **** up, you won't crash. QED.

In this case, the pilot is saying: "He was low-time!" Since we aren't
low-time (well, I have just over 300 hours), then obviously we won't
crash. As Hemingway said: "Wouldn't it be pretty to think so?"

all the best -- Dan Ford
email: (put Cubdriver in subject line)

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