Cub Driver wrote
I wonder how much of flying's apparent dangers (and motorcycles' too?)
comes not from the vehicle but from the driver?

Most of it.

As a driver, you get a discount for being older, female, and married.
The highest rates are paid by young unmarried men, the lowest by
middle aged married women. There is no similar insurance dynamic at
play in airplanes. Nobody really cares about your age, sex, or
marital status. Why?

Driving is mandatory, flying is optional.

Unless you live in New York City, you have to drive. There isn't a
realistic choice. But you can choose when, how, and how much. You
can avoid high traffic areas. You can slow down. You can avoid
driving at night. In general, you can reduce your exposure by
reducing the utility of your car. The whole idea is anathema to a
young unmarried man. He will go where he wants to go, when he wants
to go there, and as fast as he can get there. A middle aged married
woman will delay her trip, take longer, go elsewhere if possible, and
just not go if she can. She is most likely far less skilled as a
driver than the young unmarried male, but she is safer. She drives
only when necessary, and then in the safest way possible.

Of course there are exceptions - there are cautious young unmarried
men and middle aged married women who seek adventure on the open road,
but they are just that - exceptions.

Flying is completely different. It's optional. There are a very few
people who have a valid need to fly, but that doesn't include most of
us. We fly because we want to fly. For that reason, there are no
safe private pilots.

Yes, I am absolutely serious. There are no safe private pilots.
They've all quit. Every private pilot still flying has made the
decision, consciously or unconsciously, that the fun and possible
marginal utility of flying is worth the increased risk of serious
injury and even death, not only for himself but for his passengers.
Every trip the typical private pilot makes in an airplane could have
been more safely made by car or commercial carrier - and generally
cheaper and more reliably as well.

Why doesn't your insurance company care about your great judgment and
commitment to safety? Because it's all a bunch of crap. If you were
really committed to safety, you would have already quit. That's why
there is no discount for age, marital status, or sex. Because that
'discount' is realized by not needing aviation insurance because you
don't fly.

So what do insurance companies care about? Why, the one thing you can
do to improve your odds without quitting - improving your skill and
knowledge. Both tend to accumulate with experience, so every insurer
cares about experience. Both also tend to accumulate with training
(initial and recurrent) so most insurers also care about that. The
more relevant the skill and knowledge the better, so insurers care
about time in category, class, and make/model. Skill rots, so recent
experience also counts.

Skill and knowledge don't make you safe - nothing will - but they do
make you safer. If you want safety, put your airplane in the hangar.
It's safe there. But that's not what airplanes are for.

Michael