"Michael" wrote in message
oups.com...
.... many relevant observations snipped....

This isn't a good situation, but I have to say that in power flying
that's basically the way it is - and that goes double for instrument
flying.
....more relevant observations snipped....
And lest you think that it's somehow different for gliders, every one
of those glider pilots who has become pretty good at knowing what the
weather is doing has stories of guessing wrong and making an
off-airport landing or escaping one only by the skin of one's teeth.

I had been around the periphery of aviation for many years, but have only
had my very first peeks "inside" since mid-2004.

What you have said mirrors that meager experience perfectly. It surprised
me a little...maybe more than a little.