Greg Copeland wrote:
On Wed, 24 Aug 2005 08:28:30 +0200, Martin Hotze wrote:

wrote:

The key here is time. If the PLA can land large numbers of troops on
Taiwan, they win. If they can't, the mainland government will go up in
flames. So an invasion needs to be a pretty sure thing which requires
high force superiority. The longer it takes to get across, the more US
reinforcements arrive and the harder the job gets.

So you believe that US troops will help Taiwan?

In the short term, yes. We would likely engage with air and naval
forces to prevent them from making it across the straits, and provide
support to ground forces on Taiwan. We would likely try to avoid
attacking targets on the Chinese mainland to avoid escalation, as the
PRC does have ICBMs, and we've never fought a shooting war directly
with a country that has those. If the PLA manages to make it across in
sufficient force, they might indicate their willingness to defend their
sovereign territory (which is how they see Taiwan) with said missiles.
Would we trade Los Angeles or San Francisco for Taipei? Unlikely. This
is why the first 7-14 days are critical.

The truth is that neither side in this really wants a shooting war. The
effects on the global economy are completely unpredictable and all
nations involved (US, PRC, ROC, Japan) are all highly linked
economically, with China having the most to lose if things went wrong
for them. But this is no guarantee, as a review of trade statistics
between France, the UK, and Germany prior to WWI demonstrates.

Yes. As a close ally of Japan, its in our own self interest.
Furthermore, the US depends on a lot of technology goods which come out of
the Pacific Rim. Again, its in our own self interest. From what I
understand, even Japan is willing to commit significant military resources
under the primise of national security; and rightly so.

This is a very interesting and sensitive development. Japan has been
very quietly building a first-rate navy and air force, and could do far
more if they wished to. The powder keg in North Korea and China's
chest-thumping are pushing the Japanese out of their post-WWII pacifism
and they have the industrial plant and economy to do anything they
want.

This concerns the Chinese greatly because if they have to deal with not
only the USN/USAF but also the Japanese navy/AF then taking Taiwan is
going to be that much more fraught with peril. They are also somewhat
infuriated by this because of lingering resentment over what they see
as Japan's failure to atone for WWII atrocities. They have some point
here (and they find our friendship with Japan bewildering for the same
reason) but one begins to feel they are milking the cow a bit much at
this stage in the game.

In the long term it is clear that China would like to be the dominant
power in the Pacific rim. Ten years ago it was just us and them. Now
India and Japan are getting into the game too. It is going to be an
interesting century. We can only hope it will not be too bloody.

-cwk.

FWIW, I am not a China-hater by any means. I studied Mandarin for 4
years in college and lived in Beijing for a little while about ten
years ago.