"Robert M. Gary" wrote in message
oups.com...
I've not studied the mogas market specifically, but most markets are
based on speculation, not current conditions. That basically means that
any benefit associated with the effects of Katrina are already built
into the price of gas.

Speculation is based on trends forecasting, not disasters.

Its just like the stock market. When a company
announces a great new money making opportunity, you don't have to wait
for it to pay off in order to see the stock price go up, the stock
prices goes up right away on the expection (as long as investors see it
as realistic). This is call the "perfect market theory". As long as
everyone has the same knowledge base of information (something the SEC
tries to assure) markets will automatically price based on that fugure
information, not the current situation.

"Perfect Market Theory" has been debunked so many times over so many years
I'm surprised anyone still holds with it. Hell, von Mises debunked it back
in the 1920's.


--
Matt
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Matthew W. Barrow
Site-Fill Homes, LLC.
Montrose, CO