According to the Nall Report, the actual number is 11 or 12 fatal
accidents per million hours of GA flights (averaging just under two deaths
per fatal accident).


Okay, you statistic gurus, figure this out for me, please?

If, say, I end up flying 4000 hours in my flying life, using your figures
(above), what are my odd of dying in a fatal crash?

Without scouring the Nall Report for details, and using round numbers of
10 fatal accidents per million hours, that's one per 100,000 hours.
That comes to 4/100 of a fatal accident per 4000 hours. The numbers are
small enough so that a linear approximation will come close enough -
it's a 4% chance of being involved in a fatal accident.

General Aviation covers a broad range of activities, some inherently
more risky than others, and some carrying more passengers than others.
It is more likely that a hundred-passenger plane that crashes would
generate a fatailty than that a two passenger plane does, just because
more passengers have the opportunity to die. However it's probably not
unreasonable to use the overall figures and figure 4% chance of being
involved in a fatal. But I suspect that 2 passengers is fairly average
for a general aviation flight, and not too far off from your flying.
Based on that, I'd say that if you are involved in a fatal accident,
you'd have a good chance of not being one that survives.

Is it possible for you to factor out accidents caused by fuel starvation,
flying into IMC, and flying at night? If so, what are my odds then?

No. You might be able to factor them out, but you would no longer have
a reasonable calculation. People rarely crash due to intentional fuel
starvation, or intentional VFR in IMC. It just creeps up on them
unexpectedly, as does nightfall. This is why they are called "accidents".

You could reasonably exclude IFR flying, but you should not exclude IMC.
It is unreasonable to exclude night flight, even if you never intend
to fly at night. If you never fly at night, it just means that when
nightfall =does= sneak up on you, you will be unprepared for it. And in
4000 hours, one day nightfall =will= sneak up on you. And it will be
the day you were in a hurry to make it before dark, the fuel pumps
rejected your credit card, and you still had mostly full tanks and a
good shot at making it. And you would have made it too, if the wing
wasn't just a little bit tilted when you dipped the tank. There were
some clouds in the way but you climbed over them... at Vx - full power,
full rich, and they were higher than you thought. Oh, a new moon.

Dang - where'd the lights go all of a sudden?

Don't say you won't be there. 4000 hours is a lot of hours. You =will=
make mistakes.

Four percent if the source numbers are accurate. No fudging.

Jose
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