Mike the Strike wrote:
Thanks Mitch.

Indeed my comment was directed as much at myself as anyone and was
highlighting the difficulty of soaring forecasts rather than vilifying
individuals. We were all expecting the influx of moisture, typical of
the pre-monsoon conditions, to bring superb conditions.

Here in Arizona, the moisture spread a lot of mid and high level cloud
and pushed much further and quicker than expected. I had my own ship
prepped and ready to go and was disappointed when conditions tanked.

Mike



Tell me about it. A couple of weeks back I predicted 750K - 1000K Wx
for the New Jersey crowd. Unfortunately, winds were just a little bit
too westerly for one of the key transition ridges and cloudbase a
little bit too low to get out of the area. 10 degrees shift in winds
and 4 degrees in dewpoint and we had it made! In our sport, we
don't have to miss by much to to go from hero to zero. If it was the
golfing forecast, nobody would have noticed.

In a case of poetic justice, I did head out on that day. Got to spend
nearly 2 hours hanging on in marginal ridge at about 600 AGL. Most
folks felt this was punishment enough and were kind enough not to
comment on the missed forecast.

Erik Mann
LS8-18 (P3)