Frank wrote:

I think you either have to agree that either the handicaps are somewhat
biased in favor of the ASW27 crowd, or that Manfred really isn't in the
top rank of pilots. Maybe there are so many better ASW27 pilots that
there will always be several at each SC Nats. This may in fact be the
case, but how to tell for sure?. One way would be to have the ASW27
pilots fly LS3s, and that (I think) is what the Club Class does in
Europe.


Frank(X3)

Frank,

I think the statisticians would say that you are running into the "rule
of small numbers"; ie. with such a small sample it's hard to make any
reliable generalizations. To put it a different way, how many pilots
are capable of winning a nationals at any given contest (leaving aside
ships for a minute)? Realistically, maybe 1/3 of the competitors are
truly national caliber; the others are there to prop up the bottom of
the scoresheet. I'm sure others would argue that the number of
potential champions is lower .

So, let's say that there are 10 folks on average in a SC nationals who
have the potential to win. So, the unadjusted probability is 10% that
someone like Manfred will win under this scenario. Now, throw in the
fact that certain guys seem to win contests again and again (I'll use
Gary Ittner as an example in the 15M, flying his "old" Ventus C against
all of the new ASW-27s and V2s as a for instance). So, the
probability for the "rest of us" is really pretty small. The fact
that 2 true Club Class ships have won in the last 10 years means that
they are statistically over-represented and the handicaps need to be
revised in favor of the more modern ships :-))))

Seriously, I think a couple of other posts all alluded to the fact that
there are some good reasons why the current handicap system in the US
is a compromise. If you really want to get under the numbers, create a
simple model in a spreadsheet. Under average Eastern conditions (say a
course of 150 miles with 300fpm average lift), you can calculate the
time to climb and the time to cruise using the published polars. The
7% handicap (actually more like 7.5%) the LS3 has over the ASW-27 is
VERY significant. However, get the cruise speeds up with either
ridges or strong thermals, and the newer gliders have an advantage.
I thought the South African model described earlier is interesting, as
it tries to use the actual results to deterimine the day's handicap.
On the other hand, some folks will find it difficult to accept that
the results are adjusted so dynamically...

As far as the LS-3 swap, I'll take a different tack. I'll see what I
can do to line up an LS-4 to go head-to-head with you. Loser each day
buys the beer :-))

P3