On Sun, 7 Jan 2007 10:54:53 -0500, "TV" wrote:

The stealth that we have now still ain't enough - and it will take a whole
lot of new stuff to deal. But like everything else and as I said before,
if you start targeting the SAM operators and their mothers they get a
quick change in attitude fast so we could asymmetrically, as they say, add
some diddles to the equation. It is perhaps then a "full spectrum" fight
(stealing from the Army)

The B-2, F-117, and F-22 already give a tremendous first day stealth
capability, especially with precision stand-off munitions. Enough to take
out any 3rd world and their SAMs. Especially given Weasel countermeasures.
As far as I know, SAMs are still highly allergic to anti-radiation missiles!
In my fictitious China/Russia scenario, there would be many more elements
besides airplanes targeting SAMs! UAVs, cruise missiles, special ops, etc.
Finally, Russian SAMs might be very good (who knows until they're used in
battle?), but I'm betting most of their for-sale operators aren't.

At the bigger picture, anyone using those weapons and seriously hurting the
US with them is going to prompt a US-Russia talk like the Britain-France
talk during the Falklands. Russia isn't going to want to trash US relations
over Kurzikstan or Somalia, so there goes their effectiveness (assuming that
US Intel doesn't already know about their capabilities and potential
counters). As Ed commented on my comments, I think the emphasis really
needs to be on winning the war of the media just as much (if not more so)
than the actual war. I believe that the US is on another generation of
operational capability compared to any other army in the world. I'd bet good
money that the US could sit idle for the next 30 years and still be on par
with anything coming out of Russia or China with the current arsenal. But
they don't want to be on par, or just win wars, they want (i.e., the public)
to win wars faster, cleaner, and easier than ever! It's the media, and
public perception, that are (and have been since the end of WW2, and
especially the end of the Cold War) the limiting factors on US military
success. So the trick becomes how to best prosecute a war that pleases the
public? Make it as humane, bloodless, and fast as possible. That, IMO, is
the biggest strategic reason for pushing technology forward. Not enemy
weapon/defense developments. Even if all other countries ceased developing
weapons, and went back to using spears and rocks, this reason alone would
still drive US weapons development just as much as it is being driven now

That's a not bad at all expression of the cost side, and the cost
side is important but the US has never been limited by the cost
side. USains are as brave as anybody else, and as willing to
accept neccessary pain.

The US won its last war (GWI, this one isn't over so it doesn't
count yet) because the public understood the need, and accepted
the cost. Their leader expressed attainable goals to meet ral and
worthwhile needs, got the necessary suppport (hell he even got
someone else to foot the bill) achieved his goals, and got out,
or as out as one can in the real world. In his youth, he fought
bravely in a war where the president of the day had an eye on the
same factors.

It lost the war before that (Nam), not because of the cost, but
because the reasons for fighting couldn't stand the light of day.
There was no democracy to support, South East Asia was not going
to collapse like a pile of dominos etc. When the public figured
that out, the leadership tried the we've invested so much and
it's almost won bit. That turned out to be sending good money
after bad, which the public figured out too. Embarassing.

I'd cheerfully bet that the Shrub would be some kind of great
hero today if some of his "let's pretend" had turned out to be
true. What would we think of him now if it had cost 30,000 troops
to take out Iraq, but they'd found 50 hydrogen bombs and tons of
CBW weapons with credible delivery plans? and documentation
enabling you to roll up AQ like a filthy rug? and the folks in
the area were grateful? (if you found that, I suspect Iran,
Jordan, Syria and Turkey might have a passing twinge of
gratitude., governments, population and clerics included)

People forget the price pretty fast if quality goods are
delivered.


Peter Skelton