As a career Naval Aviator with experience, albeit dated, in both the Training Command and OPNAV, I've watched this thread spin out with some interest. As the Director of Research at the National Defense University in one of my prior incarnations, I was privy to a study substantiating your remarks. When launched on a quest to find the "Prime Indicator of Success" - the Holy Grail of the Nugget Watchers - the study I am most familiar with came up with the revolutionary but counterintuitive conclusion that it was not being an Eagle Scout or a BS in AE or the kind of a baby that quit nursing every time an airplane flew over but whether or not the candidate - get this - had a paper route.