On Sep 1, 10:56 pm, "Morgans" wrote:
"Dudley Henriques" wrote

What seems obvious is not always the answer, and it's the wise pilot who
realizes the real safety message will be found along the investigative
path that follows the video rather than by watching the video itself
without this valuable information.

Although I agree in principle as to what you said, I wonder if in this case,
we can all take away some knowledge, and cautions, just from the
speculations to the possible causes.

I don't know if I am explaining myself very clearly. What I'm thinking is
that everyone may take some cautions to not do EACH of the possible causes
that have been offered up, even if only one or a combinations of a few of
the offered explanations are really the cause.

What do we take away with us, as possible causes?

1) Downwind takeoff - bad, when conditions may be close to performance
limitations.

2) Downwind takeoffs even worse when you get above the tree line.

3) Importance of calculating DA, with a conservative slant. Also to add
other performance reducing factors into the performance calculations.

4) Overweight takeoffs are a "bad idea." Weight and CG should be closely
considered, especially when it is close to maximum.

5) Lean if necessary for an elevated DA.

6) Possible (big emphasis on this, since we don't really have a reliable
indication if the engine was running poorly) rough running engines will hurt
takeoff and climb, especially when takeoff performance calculations are
marginal.

7) Raising the nose further while on the brink of a stall is all it takes
to insure a stall will occur.

It seems likely to me, that one, or more likely more or all of the above had
a part in the crash. Possible, even probable there are others that nobody
has mentioned, or thought of.

Still, it makes me think about all of the above while preparing for the next
takeoff. Would you, and others, think about it in that way?

To me, not knowing what the cause was would remind me to consider all of the
possible causes, rather than just the one or ones that are really
responsible.

How about you? Do you have any other pet theories, or think one of the
reasons I have written down may be largely responsible?
--
Jim in NC

Jim

I dont know that the data (the video and incomplete WAT data) support
any conclusion right now.

Should pilots use prudent flying techniques? Yes. The difference
between an amateur and professional pilot is not the airplane that
they fly, but it is the method and procedures by which they fly the
airplane. All pilots should fly their aircraft within the performance
parameters of the vehicle. All pilots should use standardized
procedures and methods in their flying. All pilots should have
"benchmarks" which measure performance of the vehicle and trigger
alternate scenarios.

But otherwise right now there are no real lessons to be learned from
the video tape. This might turn out to be the Kenner crash...for the
WAT and the wind performance problems NOTHING the pilot did except not
going would have changed the outcome...or it might turn out to be that
the accident was Delta at DFW...(the 727) stupid on its face.

Robert