The nail in the coffin: TIS and Mode-S

Mode-S/TIS transponders cost more, turns out, they cost
substantially more to certify for IFR as well. I'm beginning to come
around to the viewpoint of those here who say that any modernization
that comes from the FAA will usually be a costly waste of time. The
FAA is abandoning TIS slowly, and would have done it fast if we and
the AOPA hadn't complained about it.

Now I fully well expect ADS-B to be held hostage to the FAA's funding
scam:

================================================== ===================
FAA: Funding Tied To Modernization

The FAA must implement changes to the way it is funded before it can
afford to embrace the myriad technologies that are envisioned for the
Next Generation Air Transportation System, according to senior FAA
staffers. Appearing before the Senate aviation subcommittee, Charles
Leader, director of the Joint Planning and Development Office, told
committee members that the controversial system of user fees and tax
increases now under consideration by Congress for FAA reauthorization is
a key element of FAA modernization. "Modernization and moving to NextGen
is inextricably linked to changes in the FAA’s financing system," Leader
said.
================================================== ======================

I guess we can expect the FAA to axe or radically slow down ADS-B in
retaliation for not getting what they want. It would not work in any
case. The attempt to shift costs to GA would yield less than the present
system on day one, and rapidly decline as GA users bailed out of
aviation or cut back on operations.

Scott Moore