"Gary Drescher" wrote in message
news:_LvNb.59755$5V2.69373@attbi_s53...
Not necessarily. You're right that the statistics reflect an unknown
number
of dumb decisions that you and I might never make. But they also reflect
an
unknown number of instances where a pilot escaped harm by exercising
better
skill or judgment than you or I possess. We don't know which factor
predominates, so we don't know if our personal risk is greater or less
than
what the raw stats show.

At the CAA safety evenings in the UK, they open up the discussion
with the lecturer explaining saying hello, and that just by turning up,
even if they didn't stay for the lecture, they're 20 (or was it 15, can't
remember) times less likely to suffer a fatality than average. Nothing
magical about turning up, just that people who are interested in safety
in flying are those who aren't likely to have the accidents...they know
what causes fatal accidents and avoid such situations.

Paul