"Roger" wrote in message
...

...
So then, why is everyone trying to get on this guy's case. Because his
luck
ran out?

I'd guess because he apparently descended through the clag with out a
rating instead of proceeding on to where he could let down VFR.
Although the one area reported 1000 foot ceilings it appears others
were reporting much less and some cases of fog.

So, apparently, he had enough fuel to go on however far it was to get to
VMC?

VFR over the TOP is taking a calculated risk and should be done with
"known" good VFR below the ceiling.(at least 1500 and 5) You also need
to know what is below just in case the engine quits or you smell
something burning. Plus you need good VFR within reach plus some
reserve.


And, at the time he started over the top, he didn't have good forcasts up
ahead?
And, if you have good VMC underneath, why in the world would one want to
take the chance on going over?
VMC underneath is nice to know about, but if you don't have the IMC skills
to get there, it ain't gonna do you no good.

The problem as I see it (with what information I have), is not that
his luck ran out, but with lack of planning, he made some poor
decisions resulting in a dangerous situation where he needed that
luck..

I would say proceding over the top was poor decision #1 - Betting on a
forcast being right, nothing going wrong with the airplane, and no other
options (e.g. IFR)

--
Geoff
The Sea Hawk at Wow Way d0t Com
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