"Tom Cooper" wrote in message
news

"Pete" wrote in message
...

"Tom Cooper" wrote

If you consider that there are over 200 Su-27/30s supported by several
AWACS
in Chinese service alone right now, how do you think could the USAF
and
the
USN help defend Taiwan - just for example - with two squadrons of
F-15s
(on
Okinawa) and few squadrons of Hornets on the carrier based in Japan?

I should think that the 200 or so Taiwanese F-16's and Mirages would
want
a
part of that.

Super: now the ROCAF should be fighting to establish air superiority for
the
USAF and the USN?

That statement is even more preposterous than your assertion that the USN is
involved in redefining the air-to-air arena to support fielding of the
F/A-22. The ROCAF would, if the US became involved, be fighting the same
enemy in the same geographical area, and you can bet it would be in
coordination with US assets. That you have chosen to completely disregard
the contribution of the ROCAF may be convenient for your agenda, but it is a
ludicrous oversight.


What an argument... But, if we're talking about "mine is bigger than
yours":
by the time the first F-22s are going to enter service there are going to
be
over 400 Su-27/30s in China,

Let's see, the first F/A-22's have already entered into their operational
test and eval phase, and the 1st TFW is scheduled to get their first birds
in the 2005-06 timeframe IIRC. The PLAAF has, from what I have seen on the
sinodefence.com site, some 120 total Su-27/30 variants in service now (out
of a total of some 175 on order) from Russia and some 200 in the
construction pipeline in the PRC, and indicates that it is expected some 48
aircraft will be added to the 120 number in service by 2006--it would appear
that your timeline may be a little off, unless you think all of those 200 or
so domestic production examples will be completed over the next year or two
(and then they's still have to order another 25 or so Russian built aircraft
just to meet your four hundred figure, much less acheive "over 400").

plus some 300 J-10s, JF-17s and similar
animals.

What?! You actually think they are going to field that number of J-10's and
FC-1/JF-17's over the next couple of years? Holy crap, Batman--the FC-1 just
had its maiden rollout last year (and is intended to meet export market
requirements--no indication yet it will enter into PLAAF service)! The J-10
has been a pretty slow program--last I heard they were still dicking around
with which engine to mount in it, and there is some doubt as to whether or
not it will *ever* enter into major frontline service with either PLAN or
PLAAF units in anything other than nominal numbers.

In an environment where nothing short of at least a 1:6 exchange
ratio would be needed, but where anything beyond 1:3 is actually unlikely
(at least according to calculations based on current data), not a very
brilliant prospect.

If the aforementioned numbers are representative of your "data", then excuse
me for not buying into the validity of your assertion (which also discounts
PLAAF losses due to ADA, SAM, and interdiction efforts, I presume).


But OK; feel yourself as "winners": obviously warning about such matters
is
considered here as "anti-US", so I guess somebody has first to hit the
wall
head-on... (it wouldn't be the first time, but at least that functions for
sure).

You have to be able to present a credible case--you have fallen far short
thus far. Merely playing Chicken Little, without a decent set of supporting
data, is not going to get you too far.

Brooks


Tom Cooper